LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Cook Out 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Check out the Cook Out 400 Cheatsheet

Cook Out 400🏁

Homestead did not disappoint last weekend when the fastest cars shined (until one blew up), and long green flag runs let the drivers decide who took home the checkered flag. This Sunday, the NASCAR Cup Series travels to Martinsville Speedway in Ridgeway, VA, for the Cook Out 400. The track is a 0.526-mile, flat, paper clip-shaped oval where rubbin’ is racin’ and tempers have been flaring all weekend.

Mild temperatures and a constant 20% chance of rain are in the forecast for Ridgeway. The next day doesn’t look any more friendly, so NASCAR should try everything they can to complete the race on Sunday.

_{On to Martinsville!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 400 laps will be run this week, and 100 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 350 laps should run under the green flag for 157.5 possible DK points)

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

1) Everything starts with our dominators. While this isn’t a 500-lap short-track race, 400 laps will still provide an immense number of dominator points. At least two drivers will lead over 100 laps, but they can start from anywhere, so this is going to be an all-or-nothing weekend.

2) Good cars can move up, bad cars can not. A fast car starting in the rear can make big moves, but a slow car will get lapped almost immediately.

3) Front-loaded lineups work here. Finishing position is the second most important thing besides dominator potential. Since bad cars don’t fare well here, we need to rely on drivers starting further forward that also finish in the top 10. Each of the last four perfect lineups had at least 5 drivers that started in the top 25, and each of the last two Spring races had three drivers starting in the top 6.

4) If we could avoid the basement we would be better off. We need drivers that finish in the top 15, and not many basement drivers fit that profile. If we happen to need a basement driver, someone starting well and holding on to their finish position would be an ideal target.

Stage 1: 80 Laps

Stage 2: 100 Laps

Stage 3: 220 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Ryan Blaney ($11,200 DK, $14,000 FD): Fast car and is a good driver starting 32nd. Average finish here of 3.5 with an average positive place differential of 10, Blaney knows how to pass at Martinsville.

Cole Custer ($6,300 DK, $3,500 FD): Not a frequent flier, especially as a Foundational target, but the old SHR drivers were very good at short flats, and Custer seems to have a fast car. Let’s see if he has what it takes to sneak into the top 15.

Carson Hocevar ($6,600 DK, $6,500 FD): Hocevar has been stacking disappointments all season, and this is a perfect buy-low spot. Carson starts 29th, but he had top 5 speed in practice and moderate success at correlated tracks. He is not the safest cash play ever, but his salary and upside will allow us to pay up for potential dominators.

Tournament Targets

Chase Elliott ($9,900 DK, $12,000 FD): Elliott starts on the front row, and that is not the major advantage you would think it is, but my model predicts him to lead the most laps in the field as well as to win the race. 

Denny Hamlin ($10,700 DK, $12,500 FD): Rounding out the top 5, Hamlin may go overlooked due to his starting position and perceived lack of dominator potential. Denny is projected to lead the third most laps in the field and was lightning quick in practice. I like Elliott or Hamlin to lead the bulk of the early laps and hang out inside the top 5 for the rest of the race.

Erik Jones ($6,200 DK, $4,800 FD): Jones is very much in danger of getting lapped quickly from his 31st-place starting position, but if he can hold on to the lead lap, I think he has a realistic shot at a top 20. 

Ross Chastain (9,000 DK, $9,000 FD): Chastain is a touch more expensive than I would like, and he starts in no-man’s land at 17th. Ross has six straight top 15 finishes with three top 10s. While I think he does not possess much dominator potential, he does have a knack for slithering into the top 10.

Bargain Basement

Shane Van Gisbergen ($5,900 DK, $5,200 FD)

Martinsville was one of Shane’s non-road courses last year in preparation for this season, and he performed way over expectations. Starting 33rd, SVG will have to pull a rabbit out of his hat a second time, but his car practiced incredibly well, and I think he has a chance to surprise everyone again.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Martinsville that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Bubba Wallace ($7,200 DK, $8,000 FD)

Brad Keselowski ($7,900 DK, $9,500 FD)

Noah Gragson ($6,900 DK, $7,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Tyler Reddick ($7,700 DK, $7,800 FD)

I do not fade Reddick very often, but he is downright miserable at Martinsville with a top finish of 7th in six races here. His car did not perform well in practice, and his starting position of 9th means he needs to have a career high finish to have the chance of making the perfect lineup.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 28-40 (2.2 u)

2025 results: 4-8 (-1 u)

My model projects Elliott to win the race and Blaney to finish 6th. There is a crazy disparity in starting position, with Elliott starting on the front row and Blaney starting 32nd. The entire world is going to be on Blaney this weekend, but he must have a hot start if he wants to avoid going a lap down early.

Buescher is not great at short flats and only has one top 10 finish here in six races. Berry is one of my favorite drivers to fade, and he struggled to finish in the top 15 in either race last season. Berry’s car was pitiful in practice on Saturday, and he actually needs a positive place differential for a top 10, so I will be happy to bet against that outcome.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 11-15 (+11.45 u)

2025 Results: 1-2 (-1 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For additional stats, check out the Cook Out 400 Cheatsheet

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