LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Cook Out 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Cook Out 400🏁

We are finally back after a much-needed two-week breather. Three races remain in the 2024 regular season, and teams are gearing up for their final playoff push. I hope everyone enjoyed their time off and got to spend a little extra time with the family. I know I did, possibly hitting a beach or a pool. The NASCAR Cup series now embarks on 14 weeks to crown this year’s champion, and the first stop is this Sunday evening at Richmond Raceway in Richmond, VA, for the Cook Out 400. The track is a 0.75 mile D-shaped oval and has been known to be one of the most predictable venues on the schedule. Lucky of us, NASCAR has introduced an extra level of excitement with tire options. Each driver will have seven sets of prime (traditional tires with yellow lettering) and two sets of option tires (softer, faster, more fall off, and red lettering). This concept has been around in Formula 1 for years and was even implemented during this year’s All-Star race. Still, Richmond’s abrasive racing surface should highlight the difference between the two tire compounds. While, in theory, this opens up multiple ways for this race to play out, I don’t expect the tires to have a significant effect (I think this will eventually fall flat like the chosen cone).

After rain seemingly all week for the Mid-Atlantic region we get a clear Sunday. A perfect night for racing.

_{On to Richmond!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 400 laps will be run this week, and 100 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 355 laps should run under the green flag for 159.75 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

Richmond has traditionally been one of the most predictable race tracks, and that generally means trusting the optimizers. While I expect there to be some ripple effect from the tire situation, the best way I can describe I expect that it won’t change which drivers finish in the top 5 but it could alter the order in which they finish. That said, finishing position is not our first objective at Richmond, we are looking for dominators. Over the last three races, dominator points have been more spread out than you would expect. These races featured two, four, and two drivers that led more than 80 laps. In those races, two of the eight dominators started on the pole, but neither of those drivers won the race, and the race winner came from as far back as 26th. While rostering one driver on the front row is a good idea, it is highly unlikely that driver will win the race or be the sole dominator so we will have to look elsewhere for additional dominators. These dominators could come from the top 10, but that isn’t always the case. Our best strategy is to lock up one driver starting on the front row and an additional driver or two that we think can win in the hopes of the winning driver leading a significant number of laps.

Once we draft our dominators, we need to look for drivers who can finish in the top 15. The number of top 15 drivers can range from 2 to 4 depending on the number of dominators we select. Passing for the lead is difficult at short tracks, but drivers can still make moves through the field, so don’t be afraid to roster a fast driver that may have had a tough qualifying run. This is a relatively low attrition track so don’t expect miracles, drivers have to be good to finish well.

There is a scenario where a stars and scrubs lineup build turns out to be optimal. If this is the approach of your build, the top 15 rule can be relaxed and a basement double dip could be on the table. I wouldn’t allocate a ton of lineups to this strategy but it has the possibility to be successful.

Stage 1: 70 Laps

Stage 2: 160 Laps

Stage 3: 170 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Brad Keselowski ($9,600 DK, $9,500 FD)

Keselowski is not a potential dominator, but starting 29th, he has nothing but place differential potential. Over his last three races at Richmond, Brad has an average finish of 11.2, and he posted the 4th-best 30-lap average in practice on Saturday. Kes has had mixed results at correlated tracks over the last two seasons, but he only needs a top 14 finish to hit value on Sunday, and there is absolutely enough speed in his car to pull that off.

Ross Chastain ($7,900 DK, $8,000 FD)

Chastain is the cheapest he has been all season, and I am looking to load up on him in cash games this Sunday. Ross starts 22nd, but he was lightning fast over the long run in practice, posting the second-best 15, 20, 25, and 30 lap averages. Chastain has also performed respectably at Richmond over the last three races with an average finish of 14 and an average finish at correlated tracks of 12.5. Any finish of 13th or better will result in Chastain hitting value, and considering his average simulated finish is 10.71, I love his potential to turn in a cash-worthy performance.

Tournament Targets

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,100 DK, $13,000 FD)

All eyes will be on Denny Hamlin starting from the pole, but my model gives Truex the edge in percent laps led on Sunday. Truex starts second this weekend, but he meets Hamlin step by step. Martin has the better average Richmond finish and place diff, correlated finish and place diff, single lap practice speed, and lap averages. Every time there is a race that starts in the day and finishes at night, Truex is the first driver I look to, and I think this weekend, he is primed to be the major dominator.

Chase Briscoe ($6,900 DK, $7,500 FD)

Briscoe starts 25th on Sunday but has the second best model projected place differential and a projected finish of 12th. Diving deeper, this is actually a much more realistic expectation than you would initially assume. Chase has an average finish of 13.667 over his last three races here and an average place differential of 10. He also performs well at correlated tracks with a average finish of 12.7 since the start of 2023. In addition, Chase posted a top 12 single speed and 10 lap average in practice on Saturday. Overall I expect Briscoe to be another under the radar driver that can differentiate our lineups in tournaments.

Bargain Basement

Ryan Preece ($5,600 DK, $4,000 FD)

Preece is starting a little further forward than I would really like from my basement driver, 26th, but he is cheap enough that he only needs a top 20 to hit value. While you may think that is a reach, he finished 18th and 5th last season. No, I do not expect another top 5 finish, but a top 20 is reasonable for sure.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Richmond that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Kyle Larson ($10,500 DK, $12,500 FD)

Daniel Suarez ($6,800 DK, $6,200 FD)

William Byron ($9,400 DK, $11,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Austin Dillon ($5,800 DK, $5,800 FD)

Dillon was impressive on Saturday but there is no way I expect that to translate to Sunday. Austin starts 6th but I don’t anticipate him holding on to a top 10 for very long. He was able to finish 9th last Fall but his two Spring finishes have been 24th and 25th. Dillon’s price is tempting but any finish worse than 12th would be an absolute killer.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 18-22 (5.9 u)

I'm back on my plus-money H2H grind. My model loves Byron with the weekend, which is weird considering he has cooled down so much this season. Byron and Elliott both had horrendous practice times, which makes me believe they were focusing more on under-the-lights racing conditions. Byron dominated last spring but ran into trouble, but overall, he has been very good here.

Considering his starting position, this is a very tall task, but my model projects Kes to be the top Ford by about four spots over Logano. Short tracks have been RFK’s bread and butter over the last two years, and I expect the trend to continue on Sunday.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 10-12 (+12.9 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For comments on every driver and additional stats, check out the Cook Out 400 cheatsheet

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