LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Cook Out 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS and 2023(x3) FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Cook Out 400🏁

While everyone is salty about a bad call made by an official in a woman’s basketball game, I am still stressed about the mid-race caution thrown at Richmond that cost Larson the race. Luckily, there is another short track race this Sunday when the NASCAR Cup Series travels to Martinsville Speedway in Ridgeway, VA, for the Cook Out 400. The track is a 0.526 mile, flat, paper-clip-shaped oval with asphalt straightaways and concrete corners. This race will complete a unique stretch of four short tracks in five races, and this will be the last short track race until Iowa in June.

Despite a week of torrential downpours and a possible tremor from a neighboring earthquake, Mother Nature seems to be cooperating this weekend. Warm-ish temperatures and no precipitation are forecasted for Sunday, so I do not expect any issues completing the entire race.

_{On to Martinsville!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 500 laps will be run this week, and 125 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 350 laps should run under the green flag for 157..5 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

This is the second consecutive 400-lap race, so we should know the first thing we need to look for: DOMINATORS. Each of the last four races has seen two drivers lead at least 100 laps, and two of those eight drivers have led more than 200 laps. Unlike Richmond, the starting position greatly influences a driver’s ability to dominate. In fact, 5 of the 8 dominators in the previous four races at Martinsville have started in the top top 5. Even without dominating, the pole sitter has made the perfect lineup in three of the last four races. The three dominators that started outside the top 5 actually started outside the top 10 (11, 11, 20), which suggests we should only consider rostering drivers starting in the top 10 that we think can dominate.

While passing is hard at short tracks, dominating is important, so perfect lineups are unique at Martinsville. We will want to roster at least 1 top 5 drivers, possibly two, but no more than 2 drivers starting in the top 10. Our place differential drivers should have top 10 potential, but not all of them need to have such lofty expectations. In each of the last four perfect lineups, only four drivers finished in the top 10, and only one lineup had all six drivers finish in the top 20. In all likelihood, we will need three place differential drivers in total, with two drivers having top 10 potential and one with top 20 potential.

With all that being said, all that leaves us is a bargain basement driver. While the bargain basement double dip proved to be profitable in two out of the last four races here, that means one of those drivers must finish in the top 20, which may not be the end of the world. Don’t be discouraged if your lineup builds tend to have top budget drivers in them. That is not an ideal situation it is a much more viable strategy here than on other tracks.

Stage 1: 80 Laps

Stage 2: 100 Laps

Stage 3: 220 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Chris Buescher ($8,600 DK, $8,500 FD)

Chris Buescher and teammate Brad Keselowski have had surprising success at short tracks since the beginning of the 2023 season, and Chris looks to continue that trend this Sunday from his 30th place starting position. Buescher has three top 9 finishes this season at short tracks, including a 7th place finish at Bristol with an astonishing +27 place differential. Chris has three top-15 finishes at Martinsville in his last four races, which leaves some room for improvement and may cause us to make him a cash-only play. Buescher’s practice times weren’t impressive on Saturday either, but overall, he will provide a nice floor with significant upside for our cash lineups.

Michael McDowell ($6,300 DK, $5,500 FD)

Almost nothing feels great about this pick, but I think there is an angle from which we can work here. McDowell is starting 35th on Sunday, and he can’t go negative, so that’s a plus. Also, he has two top-11 finishes at short tracks this season, which is encouraging. McDowell was pitiful in practice, which does not help our cause, and his average finish of 21.75 over his last four races at Martinsville is slightly higher than our target, but all things considered, Michael is poised to pick up close to 10 spots, which makes him a reasonable cash option.

Tournament Targets

Kyle Larson ($11,200 DK, $13,000 FD)

Larson was running away with Richmond until NASCAR decided they wanted to ruin his day. On Sunday, Larson is looking for a repeat performance (with slightly more luck). Kyle captured the pole, and as mentioned previously, the polesitter made the perfect lineup at Martinsville in three of the last four races. Not only was Kyle good over the short run during qualifying on Saturday, he also ran the fastest 25 and 30 lap averages in practice. Larson is my top dominator pick on Sunday, and it isn’t really close.

William Byron ($9,800 DK, $11,500 FD)

Byron is a high-risk, high-reward play this Sunday. He is not cheap, and he doesn’t start close enough to be considered a reliable dominator. William starts 18th on Sunday, but his practice speeds were much better than that, consistently posting top 6 lap averages (including the best 15 laps average) on Saturday. While 2023 was a forgettable year for Byron at Martinsville, he still has top 10 and dominator potential, and due to his high price tag, there is a very real chance he gets overlooked in tournaments.

Bargain Basement

Harrison Burton ($5,400 DK, $3,000 FD)

Burton was an utter disappointment last weekend and somehow got a price increase, which should really tell you about the state of the current bargain basement. He starts 34th on Sunday but actually showed some top-25 speed in practice on Saturday. Harrison’s average finish here is enticing, mostly due to good starting positions. He’s only had one race with more than +3 place differential.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like at Martinsville that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Denny Hamlin ($11,500 DK, $14,000 FD)

Ryan Preece ($7,200 DK, $6,200 FD)

Alex Bowman ($7,900 DK, $7,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Josh Berry ($7,400 DK, $7,000 FD)

Berry was very fun to roll with when he qualified poorly. On Sunday, he starts 7th, and there is almost nowhere he can go but backwards. He has shown glimmers of hope at similar tracks this season, but he is not cheap and carries a significant downside.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 7-5 (3.5 u)

Chastain has one top 10 finish in three short track races this season. He also finished 5th in both 2022 races at Martinsville. His practice times were rough yet he still managed to qualify 12th. He isn’t really on my DFS radar but he finished in the top 10 in 45% of my model simulations, indicating that there is some value in this line.

There are not a ton of plus money H2Hs this week and this is the only one that projects to hit. Byron has the edge in Martinsville history but Keselowski has performed better this year at short tracks, winning the H2H battle in 2/3 races.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 3-3 (+6.05 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For comments on every driver and additional stats, check out the Cook Out 400

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