LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Coke Zero Sugar 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS and 2023(x3) FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Coke Zero Sugar 400🏁

Last week’s race was about as bad as we expected, and all I can hope is we get some more changes for the road course next season. Thankfully, we go from a complete snoozefest to one of my favorite races of the year. There is something special about night racing, and when you throw in one of the most iconic tracks in motorsports everything is a little more special. Did I mention this is the last race of the regular season, too? There are still a handful of playoff spots up for grabs, not to mention the ever-present possibility of another unique winner completely throwing a wrench into the situation. All of this fun and excitement is happening this SATURDAY night at Daytona International Speedway in Daytona Beach, FL., for the Coke Zero Sugar 400. The track is a 2.5 tri-oval known for its steep banking and high speeds. Daytona is one of the two traditional restrictor plate tracks now known as superspeedways, and we have a lot of data about the best way to attack these track types. I will be going more in-depth about what makes superspeedway strategy special in the Lineup Construction section.

Pop-up thunderstorms, Florida, and Summer are all synonymous, but as of right no there is only about a 10% chance of rain this Saturday night. I think NASCAR will try everything in its power to get the entire race in as scheduled, but we do have an extra day leeway if the worst case scenario comes to fruition.

_{On to Daytona!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 160 laps will be run this week, and 40 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 125 laps should run under the green flag for 56.25 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

Any weekly reader should understand how to attack a superspeedway at this point in the season and in the tenure of the Pitstop. Here we go for those who are new or looking for a refresher. Traditionally, Daytona and Talladega were tracks that produced dangerously high speeds. Hence, NASCAR had to devise a device (a restrictor plate) to limit the maximum speed the cars could achieve artificially. By doing so, every car effectively had the same top speed, so they needed to draft in massive packs to maintain their high speeds. While the restrictor plates are a thing of the past, the races with the new rules package have played out similarly.

Since most of the field will be racing inches apart, any minor hiccup can cause a massive chain reaction crash known as a “Big One”. This crash is more or less inevitable, more so at Daytona than Talladega, but still abnormally prevalent. If we go into the race thinking a "Big One” is guaranteed, we will need to construct lineups that limit the downside if one of our drivers is caught up in the crash and maximize the upside if our drivers survive. The best way to achieve that goal is to backload our lineups. There will be drivers that post massive negative scores on Saturday night, and we are going to want to avoid them at all costs.

Okay, now that we have a general idea of what we want to do this weekend, let’s dive in a little further. Dominators are obnoxiously rare. We get one every two years, so don’t even try to roster one. Drivers starting in the top 10 are a risky proposition. Since implementing the new rules package last February, we are averaging one driver starting in the top 10 and finishing in the perfect lineup. While I would fade the entire top 5, rostering one top 10 driver in tournament/qualifier lineups will be advantageous, but this is a high risk strategy that I would avoid in cash. Drivers starting in the teens are kind in no man’s land. Their ceiling is hampered by their limited place differential potential, but their floor is still catastrophically low. Again I would suggest maybe 1 driver starting 11-20 in tournaments but avoiding them in cash. Drivers starting 20+ is where we are going to focus most of our attention. The magic starting position used to be 24th at Daytona, but anyone starting 20th or worse is fair game in both cash and tournaments. Depending on the contest type, I would suggest anywhere between 4-6 drivers starting in this range. Don’t be afraid to roll out a lineup with six drivers starting 30th or worse in cash; it will be a popular build.

Don’t be afraid to leave money on the table this weekend. When backloading lineups, we will inevitably end up with a bunch of low-priced drivers that we would never put in the same lineup in any other track. The perfect lineup for this year’s Daytona 500 only cost $37,000. While that is an extreme example, leaving anywhere between $5,000-$10,000 on the table is normal for a superspeedway.

Also do not roster any driver more than 50% this weekend because races at Daytona have around a 40% incident rate. Rostering any driver more than 50% opens you up to significantly more downside. If you can stomach the risk, go for it, but my recommended cap is 50%

After looking at the last three races in Atlanta, I did not include those races in my data for this race. While drafting is prevalent in new Atlanta, dominators exist, and there is a much lower incidence rate.

Stage 1: 40 Laps

Stage 2: 40 Laps

Stage 3: 80 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Michael McDowell ($7,800 DK, $6,200 FD)

McDowell had car issues during qualifying and will start dead last (39th) on Saturday night. The former Daytona 500 winner has 5 top 10 finishes in his last ten superspeedway races and has nowhere to go but up this weekend. McDowell has had a fantastic season so far, and this is one of his best tracks on the circuit, so I expect him to be a very popular option. I would be on the lookout for some news about McDowell on race day. However, he believes there is something broken on his car and they are still petitioning NASCAR to let them fix it before the race. While we love the fact that he starts last, if he is forced to start the race with a damaged car, he will be far less useful to us.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($8,500 DK, $7,500 FD)

The reigning Daytona 500 winner is starting 32nd and will be on everyone’s radar on Saturday. Stenhouse tends to turn even the most mundane track a superspeedway yet has the ability to succeed in the most chaotic environments. The worse Ricky starts at a superspeedway, the better he finishes, which sets up perfectly for us this weekend. While I don’t expect Stenhouse to repeat, a top-15 finish would be more than enough in cash games.

Tournament Targets

Austin Dillon ($7,500 DK, $6,000 FD)

Dillon is having a miserable season but is looking to pull off the unthinkable two years in a row by winning at Daytona to sneak into the backdoor of the playoffs. Dillon starts 21st on Saturday and is cheap enough that any top 10 finish should be able to pay off his salary and give him a chance at the perfect lineup. Austin has not finished better than 33rd this year at a superspeedway, but sometimes that is the nature of this type of racing. When looking for a tournament driver, I would rather roster someone who had a string of bad luck than someone who has been outdoing their expectations because it provides a decent buy-low opportunity.

Ryan Blaney ($9,900 DK, $14,000 FD)

Blaney starts 8th on Saturday, and he might be one of the most consistent superspeedway drivers, if there is such a thing. Ryan is coming off nine straight top-15 finishes at Daytona/Talladega, including a win and two second-place finishes. There is a massive downside with rostering Blaney due to his starting position, but out of all of the top 10 drivers, I think he has the best chance of making the perfect lineup. Blaney likes riding around the front of the field at superspeedways, and I expect him to lead laps and be in contention for the win when it is all said and done.

Bargain Basement

Todd Gilliland ($5,900 DK, $4,800 FD)

Gilliland starts 35th on Saturday and is one of the best superspeedway drivers in the basement. He is coming off two top-10 finishes in his last three superspeedway races and has only posted a negative place differential in two of his six career superspeedway races. Gilliland provides cash safety and tournament-winning upside.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like at Daytona that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Justin Haley ($6,000 DK, $5,000 FD)

William Byron ($9,500 DK, $12,000 FD)

Brad Keselowski ($9,300 DK, $11,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

The entire top 5 (Briscoe, Almirola, Burton, Wallace, Gibbs)

Since 2018, there has only been one driver who made the perfect lineup that started in the top 5. Admittedly, completely fading Wallace may be an issue because I think he has the best chance to win the race out of this entire crew but overall, avoiding this range is a given for cash and for most tournament lineups too. In a qualifier I would take a stab at one of the guys to be super contrarian, but that is not a high probably play.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 12-31 (-8.75 u)

While I previously wrote up the other Dillon brother, Ty is in a similar position. He is having a terrible season, even by his standards, and is looking to have some success at one of his best tracks. Ty has several top 10s at superspeedways in his long career and even finished 11th at last year’s Daytona 500. He is craft enough to hang around until the end and could luck into a fantastic finish.

I dislike betting outright, but why not take a long shot at a notoriously unpredictable track, in an attempt to wipe out the last two years debts. Haley has won here before and is perpetually in the mix. We will need more than one lucky break for this to work out but in reality this should be more like a +3000 line and we might as well take advantage.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Coke Zero Sugar 400 and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!