LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Coke Zero Sugar 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Check out the Coke Zero Sugar 400 Cheatsheet

Coke Zero Sugar 400🏁

After a relative surprise winner last weekend at Richmond, there are only two Playoff spots remaining this weekend when the NASCAR Cup Series travels to Daytona International Speedway in Daytona Beach, FL, for the Coke Zero Sugar 400. The track is a 2.5-mile, steeply banked tri-oval and is one of two true superspeedways on the circuit. While we should be very familiar with the strategy required at superspeedways, there are always special circumstances that we must take into consideration at Daytona. This is the final race of the regular season, and there are only two playoff spots remaining. A first-time winner will only leave one spot open for a driver to make it on points. With several skilled superspeedway racers in must-win situations, the final 20 laps of this race will be exciting.

Mother Nature perpetually curses races at Daytona. Qualifying was canceled due to lightning, and there is currently between a 25%-45% chance of rain from now until Wednesday. While nothing makes me happier than a summer night race, there is no guarantee that is how this will play out.

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 160 laps will be run this week, and 40 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 125 laps should run under the green flag for 56.25 possible DK points)

Finishing Position Points: The 40th-place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

1) Expect a “Big One”. The number one rule of superspeedways is expect chaos. Since every car basically goes the same speed, they are forced to race in packs, sometimes three wide and 10 deep, with no room for error. One wiggle in the middle of a pack can easily end a third of the field’s day. While Atlanta and Talladega can have Big One-less races, all hell breaks loose at Daytona. Sometimes these lineups will resemble DFS golf, with only 2-3 drivers actually able to finish the race.

2) Place Differential is King. Since we expect about 40% of the field to encounter some issues, we need to construct a lineup with limited downside. In cash, stacking drivers in starting 30th or worse has been the conventional wisdom for years, and there is no reason to go against it. In tournaments, the top 10 has been radioactive. The sweet spot used to be 24th, but recently some drivers starting further forward have made the perfect lineup. I would suggest limiting our player pool to drivers starting 15th or worse, with a small sprinkle of drivers starting further forward in high-risk lineups.

3) Don’t be afraid to leave money on the table. The last six perfect lineups have had a total salary between 31200 and 49400. Since we are backloading lineups, it stands to reason we will have a handful of cheap drivers we would never consider at ovals. While this is the exact opposite of what we do at most tracks, that is the reality of superspeedway racing. I usually aim to use about $40,000, but everything depends on the specific build of each lineup.

Stage 1: 35 Laps

Stage 2: 60 Laps

Stage 3: 65 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

John H Nemechek ($6,200 DK, $5,000 FD): Nemechek has insane numbers at Daytona with three straight top 15 finishes, including two top 7s. He starts 34th and has nowhere to go but forward. There is a school of thought that suggests he is due to get caught up in some shenanigans, but he is cheap and starting far enough back that he remains safe in cash games.

Cody Ware ($4,900 DK, $4,200 FD): Not my typical Pitstop pick, Ware starts 35th on Saturday and has four top 17 finishes in five Next Gen races at Daytona. Cody is another low-risk, high-reward play that we don’t usually consider in cash games.

Chase Elliott ($9,900 DK, $11,000 FD): Elliott is our lone big name in the foundational target section and that is due to his 30th place starting position. Chase is slightly better at Talladega than at Daytona, but he is still a serviceable superspeedway driver, with four top-15 finishes in seven Next Gen races here.

Tournament Targets

Chris Buescher ($8,600 DK, $9,500 FD): As it sits, Buescher is the first man out of the playoff picture and he is just about in a must win position. He starts 24th and actually won here in August 2023. Chris needs to outduel his two RFK teammates, who are also in must-win positions, if he wants his season to continue; however, I like his chances on Saturday evening.

Bubba Wallace ($8,300 DK, $9,000 FD): Even though Wallace already has his spot secure in the round of 16, he would love to finish the regular season on top. Bubba is a previous winner at Talladega and has a top finish of 2nd at Daytona within the Next Gen Era, so he knows what it takes to find victory lane at a Superspeedway.

Michael McDowell ($7,300 DK, $6,500 FD): McDowell is another driver who needs to win on Saturday night to keep his season alive. Michael starts 20th, which is a little further ahead of some of these other drivers, and he is fairly boom or bust, so I expect his ownership to be reasonably low. A top 5 finish from McDowell would go a long way to differentiate our lineups from the rest of the field.

Tyler Reddick ($8,500 DK, $6,800 FD): Reddick is the “safest” driver on points going into this race Saturday night. He starts 27th, and I fully expect him to cruise around the rear of the field all night, just ticking away the laps until Darlington. This makes him my risky play of the week because there is always a chance he gets caught up in a mess involving back markers. In all honesty, the fall to the rear strategy has worked for Hamlin and Truex Jr in the past to an extent, so if he can follow in their footsteps, this play could have fantastic upside.

Bargain Basement

Ty Dillon ($5,100 DK, $5,000 FD)

This entire Pitstop is full of basement drivers, but why not add another one to the mix? Dillon starts 23rd and has three top 14 finishes in 5 races here. He has not finished in the top 10 in the Next Gen Era, but he is having a hell of a summer, so this may be the race he puts it all together.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Daytona that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($8,700 DK, $7,200 FD)

AJ Allmendinger ($6,600 DK, $4,800 FD)

Kyle Busch ($8,800 DK, $10,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Ryan Blaney ($10,200 DK, $13,500 FD)

Blaney starts on the pole this Saturday night, and that is not where you want to be at Daytona. I will be fading the entire top 5 and going very underweight on anyone in the top 10; there is no chance I am touching Blaney with a 10-foot pole.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 28-40 (2.2 u)

2025 results: 20-28 (5.25 u)

Logano starts 4th and Cindric starts 5th on Saturday night. Austin has a better average finish at Daytona and Talladega, and he has won this H2H in 5 of the last 8 races.

This is a Pitstop first. Both drivers in the featured H2H are inadvertently in the Underdog bet. While I still think Cindric is going to finish better than Logano, I don’t expect either to finish in the top 8. Generally, I dislike having the same drivers in both bets because one good day could ruin our chances, but Daytona is so volatile that I have a tough time believing either of these drivers will finish in the top 10, let alone the top 8.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 11-15 (+11.45 u)

2025 Results: 5-10 (-2.59 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For additional stats, check out the Coke Zero Sugar 400 Cheatsheet

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