🔥Written by 2020 FWBC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Coke Zero Sugar 400 🏁

Twenty-five races have led us to this point, the regular season champion will be crowned on Saturday night at Daytona and the playoff field will be finalized. I have a special place in my heart for night races, the atmosphere under the lights adds just a little extra something that the daytime lacks. Throw the inherent chaos of a superspeedway and we are in store for a spectacle this weekend. Daytona International Speedway in Daytona Beach Florida will host one of my favorite races of the year on Saturday, the Coke Zero Sugar 400. The track is a 2.5 mile steeply banked tri-oval that produces such high speeds that NASCAR actually make adjustments to its rules package to limit how fast the cars can go. Traditionally these adjustments came in the form of a restrictor plate, which gave it the moniker a plate track, but they plates have been replaced with tapered spacers and other changes so it is now known as a superspeedway in the NASCAR DFS community (along with Talladega). Strategies for these two tracks are unique and will be discussed in our lineup construction section. The weather for Saturday is a typical summer day in Florida, hot with a chance of a shower. If all goes to plan we should be able to kick back, crack open a few beers and watch some carnage as 40 drivers race for the final guaranteed playoff spot.

On to Daytona!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 160 laps will be run this and 40 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 120 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 54 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

This is the 12th Pitstop in our 119 edition history for a Superspeedway (Daytona and Talladega) so I hope you are familiar with the strategy we will want to utilize this weekend. Due to the car modifications, just about every car has the same top speed so drivers will need to form multiple car packs to lower drag. These packs contain multiple cars racing inches apart and the moment one driver has even the smallest slip up a chain reaction crash, known as a "Big One" can occur. We saw a perfect example of that 13 laps into this year's Daytona 500, an early crash took 10 cars out of the race and damaged several others. The best way for a driver to avoid these "Big Ones" is to either be ahead of it or so far behind it you can pick your way through the destroyed cars. Trying to find drivers that will run ahead of the massive crash for an entire race is incredibly difficult so we instead focus on drivers who start in the rear in the hopes that they 1) don't get caught up in a wreck that happens in the front of the field, 2) can pick up positive place differential by just finishing the race and 3) if they do wreck, won't lose as many points as a driver that is starting closer to the front of the field.

In cash, we should pick all six drivers starting 30th or worse and keep it moving. Some drivers may have a higher ceiling than others in that range but they all have around the same floor so as long as you have six drivers in that range you have a fighting chance. In tournaments, a more nuanced choice is necessary. We usually want to focus on dominators in tournaments but in the last 11 races at Daytona, only 5 times has a driver led more than 75 laps and been in the perfect lineup and of those drivers, only 2 have started in the top 5. While you may need a dominator to take down a huge tournament, there is no guarantee there will even be a dominator or that he will make it into the perfect lineup so focusing on drivers starting a little further back may be a much better strategy for overall profitability. To that point, there have only been 6 drivers in the last 11 perfect lineups that started in the top 10. Considering what is at stake this weekend, I would expect that there to be a ton of hard racing upfront so these drivers will be an extra danger. If you are wondering where we should pick our drivers from, 46 of the 66 (69.69%[nice]) drivers in the last 11 perfect lineups have started 25th or worse and there have been five perfect lineups within that timeframe that have had at least 5 drivers starting in that range.

This is the perfect slate to play at a lower entry fee with an increased number of lineups (play twenty $1 lineups instead of one $20 lineup) so you can get exposure to different lineup constructions. I think you should play about half of your lineups with 5 drivers starting 25th or worse and then about an equal amount of lineups with 3 and 4 drivers starting in that range.

On a final note, do not be afraid to leave a significant amount of money on the table for this slate. We will be rostering some obscure and low-priced drivers this weekend and the total cost of a perfect lineup can range from $35,000-$49,000.

P.S. A common question for superspeedway races is what is the maximum exposure you are willing to tolerate on a driver? A general rule of thumb is 100- attrition rate. Since about 45% of drivers run into a problem at Daytona, I wouldn't roster any singular driver more than 55%. That is more or less the absolute max and it would go lower for drivers starting further forward.

Stage 1: 50 laps, Stage 2: 50 laps, Stage 3: 60 laps

Competition Caution: Lap 20

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kaz Grala ($8,900 DK, $8,000 FD)

Grala is a relative unknown to casual fans but he does have experience in all three series at Daytona. He had two top 5 finishes in the Xfinity Series here in 2018, a win here in 2017 in the Trucks series, and a 28th place finish in this year's Daytona 500. He followed up his moderate success in Daytona this year with a 6th place finish in Talladega in April. Grala's starting position of 38th is perfect for cash and his legitimate top 10 upside is what we are looking for in tournaments also.

Landon Cassill ($7,100 DK, $3,000 FD)

Cassill is returning this Saturday after over a year off and is starting 39th. He is a relatively good racer at superspeedways with a positive place differential in 8 of his last 10 superspeedway races. He also has shown some upside with three top 16 finishes during that time. Cassill may not be in the best equipment but that is not a huge concern this weekend. He does have a significant edge in experience over most of these backmarkers and I am hoping he can use that to his advantage on his way to the perfect lineup.

Tournament Targets

Justin Haley ($5,500 DK, $2,500 FD)

Haley is a former winner at Daytona (a fluky one at that but it still counts) and starts 28th on Saturday. He has been very good at superspeedways during his short Cup career and has posted three top 13 finishes in five starts at either Daytona or Talladega. I am starting to get the feeling that Haley will be fairly high owned for this race which is not what you want at a superspeedway but I will not let that scare me off of him. Haley has a ceiling that is much higher than most drivers in this range and that is what we are looking for in tournaments.

Ryan Newman $7,000 DK, $6,800 FD)

As we work our way through the Pitstop I want to highlight viable drivers starting further up in the field. The first driver starting outside our comfort zone (25+) is Ryan Newman who is starting 23rd. Newman should have won the 2020 Daytona 500 but instead ended up in the hospital in one of the most sickening crashes I have ever witnessed. He has followed up that race with two pitiful performances at Daytona (a 36th and 38th place finish) but he has still managed to run good races at Talladega. I expect Newman to right the ship on Saturday night and possibly return to the top 10 and the perfect lineup.

Chris Buescher ($5,200 DK, $4,500 FD)

Buescher is starting 13th on Saturday and is generally a very good superspeedway racer but that starting position is brutal. He lands in the risky spot of the week because I actually like him more than the next three drivers in front of him and about half the drivers starting behind him. Buescher has three top 5 finishes at Daytona since 2018 and a positive place differential in 6 of his last 9 superspeedway races. Chris will be incredibly low owned but has a high enough ceiling to be considered as a high-risk tournament/qualifier option.

Bargain Basement

Denny Hamlin ($9,400 DK, $13,500 FD)

Since this entire Pitstop has been devoted to the bargain basement I wanted to highlight a higher-priced driver that may be crazy enough to pay off his salary. I do not condone playing more than 5% of Hamlin due to his starting position on 3rd but there is a conceivable scenario where he lands in the perfect lineup. Hamlin usually drops to the rear with his teammate Martin Truex Jr early in these races and avoids the chaos. Since he is starting 3rd and will have Kyle Busch and Truex starting 4th and 7th respectively, there is a chance that they form a three-man draft early and lead the pack for the first stage of the race at least. If that strategy works Hamlin may opt to stay up front for as much of the race as possible, racking up laps led along the way. This has an incredibly low chance of working but if it does it would be a perfect way to differentiate our tournament lineups.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Daytona that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Austin Dillon ($10,300 DK, $12,500 FD)

Cole Custer ($6,800 DK, $8,300 FD)

Bubba Wallace ($6,500 DK, $9,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Kyle Larson ($9,000 DK, $11,500 FD)

My original thought was to write up the entire top 5 but considering the strategy, I outlined in Hamlin's write up could be true for Hamlin and Kyle Busch those are two drivers already starting in the top 5 I know I won't be fading. I think Elliott has an outside chance of winning therefore he also wouldn't qualify for a fade so now I'm down to Larson and Byron. No driver starting on the front row has been in any of the last 11 perfect lineups and I don't think that will chance on Saturday. Larson has been fantastic this season but he won't be able to drive away from the pack during this race and honestly I just don't feel comfortable rostering the driver with literally the most post to lose in the field.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Coke Zero Sugar 400 cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!