🔥Written by 2020 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Coke Zero Sugar 400🏁

I am a sucker for drama, and NASCAR tried to set the regular season finale up perfectly this year. Daytona, Saturday night (maybe), with 15 or so drivers racing for the final playoff spots...the storylines write themselves. The Coke Zero Sugar 400 will take place this Saturday evening at Daytona International Speedway in Daytona Beach, FL. The track is a 2.5 mile, steeply banked tri-oval that produces such high speeds it is known as a superspeedway (along with Talladega and now Atlanta). Lineup building strategies are entirely different at superspeedways, and we will dive much deeper into that in the Lineup Construction section. Night races are one of my favorite things in NASCAR and that is especially true when the track is Daytona. Lets just hope the race can actually be run on Saturday because the weather is looking absolutely horrendous for the next few days.

On to Daytona!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 160 laps will be run, and 40 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 125 laps should run under the green flag for 56.25 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

Superspeedways are a different animal, and at this point we should at least have a general idea of the strategy we need to utilize for this race. For the most part these cars will all have the same top speed so the majority of the field will ride around in a massive pack. While this is boring when they run single file, the action really picks up when the pack goes two or three wide. When so many cars are running close together, the slightest slip up could trigger a wreck (known as "the Big One") that takes out a significant portion of the field. At least one Big One is all but guaranteed at superspeedways so we need to structure our lineups to limit the downside in the event one of our drivers runs into trouble. This will lead to unusually back loaded lineups. In fact, only 11 drivers in the last seven perfect lineups have started better than 23rd and five of those drivers started in the top 10. In tournaments, we will need to take some chances on some drivers that start in the front of the field if we are aiming for first place but in cash games the risk is not worth it, take 6 drivers starting 23rd or worse and keep it moving.

There are some other oddities about the perfect lineups at superspeedways. The last seven perfect lineups had a total salary ranging between $31,700-$49,000. Using the entire salary cap on Saturday is not an optimal strategy. The drivers starting worse than 23rd aren't the cream of the crop and are very inexpensive, that should not scare us off of them. The name of the game is to survive the race and some of these cars will be able to pick up a ton of spots simply by not crashing. It is also very important not to overexpose yourself to one driver, this race will have between a 30-40% attrition rate so I wouldn't allocate more than 60% ownership to any specific driver.

Stage 1: 35 laps, Stage 2: 60 laps, Stage 3: 65 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Corey Lajoie ($5,800 DK, $4,500 FD)

Not enough people talk about how good Lajoie is at superspeedways. Corey is starting 31st on Saturday, which is perfect for cash and tournaments. He has an average finish of 13.8 in his last five races races at Daytona with an average positive place differential of 13. His success has translated to the other superspeedways too, where he as an average finish of 18.23 and an average positive place differential of 11. A top 20 finish this weekend is a reasonable expectation for Lajoie, while he also possesses top 10 upside.

Noah Gragson ($5,300 DK, $3,500 FD)

While this is a no-brainer pick, I think he will go under-owned due to his lack of name recognition. Gragson is starting last on Saturday and literally cannot score negative points...making him useable for cash games at the very least. He has also produced two races this season with a positive place differential, including a 20th place finish at Talladega. Noah may not have tournament winning upside but he should be a cash game cornerstone for his floor alone.

Tournament Targets

Bubba Wallace ($7,800 DK, $12,500 FD)

Continuing with our theme, Wallace is starting 30th on Saturday and provides the highest ceiling of anyone starting 30th or worse. Bubba won last fall at Talladega, but that wasn't a fluke one-off. He has three top 5 finishes in the last four races here and even throws in some laps led for good measure. Wallace may be the highest owned driver in his starting range, so that may make him a solid fade in huge tournaments and qualifiers, but if you are MME'ing I think you should have Wallace in at least 25% of lineups.

Michael McDowell ($7,300 DK, $7,500 FD)

This pick is borderline insane but this is the risky pick of the week so why not get a little crazy? McDowell is starting 9th on Saturday and needs a win to make the playoffs. Lucky for Michael, he won the Daytona 500 last year and followed that up with a 7th place finish in this year's 500. If one thing goes wrong McDowell can kill any lineup but we may need to roster one of these drivers if we want to take down a big tournament and he would be my first pick.

Bargain Basement

Ryan Blaney ($10,000 DK, $13,500 FD)

Since everything is turned upside down during superspeedway races, why not recommend a high priced driver in the bargain basement? Blaney needs to run well to maintain his playoff spot since he is still running neck and neck with Truex Jr. Blaney starts 16th this Saturday and is no stranger to superspeedway success with two wins in his last 10 races at this track type. Ryan knows just as good as anyone that one way to avoid a wreck is to stay ahead of it so I expect him to run to the front quick and hope everyone else runs into trouble behind him.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Daytona that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Austin Cindric ($8,500 DK, $9,000 FD)

Brad Keselowski ($7,200 DK, $6,800 FD)

Ty Dillon ($5,700 DK, $4,800 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Joey Logano ($9,800 DK, $11,500 FD)

Logano is starting 3rd on Saturday, a position he is pretty used to at superspeedways. Want to know what else he is used to? Falling out of the top 10. I think Logano will fall into the 20s by the end of the race, a result I do not want any part of.

Pitstop Picks

14-38 (-14.15 u)

Can lightning strike twice? Maybe. Haley's Daytona win came in a weather shortened race, similar to what we may have to deal with this weekend.. He is a good superspeedway racer in his own right and I don't want to miss out on a winnable longshot.

McDowell finished in the top 10 at Daytona and Talladega this year and starts in the top 10 this weekend. I like McDowell this weekend and want to get as much action on his as possible.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Coke Zero Sugar 400 cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!