Written by 2020 FWBC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19 

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Coca-Cola 600 🏁

In a callback to 2020, the completely absurd happened last week when NASCAR called a race due to rain, while the cars had rain tires. Mother nature has spoiled both new tracks this year but she looks to be behaving herself for this Sunday's Coca-Cola 600. The third Crown Jewel race of the season, The Coca-Cola 600 is a 400 lap night right that is held at Charlotte Motor Speedway in Concord, NC. The track is a 1.5-mile banked quad-oval with low to moderate tire wear. This is one of the few races this season where we got practice and qualifying so we get a little extra info to go on this weekend and we get about 130 extra laps, so its going to be a long night.

On to Charlotte!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 400 laps will be run this and 100 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 360 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 162 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

Sunday night we get 400 laps, 4 stages, about 4 and a half hours of race time, and a reminder every 15 minutes that this is the longest race on the NASCAR schedule. A ton of things can go wrong during this race but the cream always rises to the top. The last four winners of the 600 were Keselowski, Kyle Busch, Truex Jr and Austin Dillion (ok, maybe not always). Even though we get a ton of extra laps, we don't get an extra dominator so we should focus on one to two dominator builds. There may be a couple extra transitional leaders who pick up 15-30 laps led but we tend to see either one driver lead 200+ laps or one driver that leads 100+ laps and another driver that leads 75+ laps. During the three races where one driver led more than 230 laps, two of those drivers started on the pole. The other dominators throughout the years started in the top 15 but as I mentioned earlier there will be a ton of laps run on Sunday so fast car will have a ton of time to get to the front of the field and lead laps.

Trends for this race are hard to put a finger on and one odd thing to mention is that there was a driver in the perfect lineup in both Charlotte races last year that had a negative place differential. That is the exception, not the rule, but this track has featured a variety of perfect lineups, some balanced, some stars and scrubs and even a double bargain basement lineup. If we are building a single dominator lineup, I think the stars and scrubs approach is best. The way qualifying worked out we can pick Larson starting on the pole and then some high priced drivers starting a little further back to act as our place differential drivers. If you want a two dominator approach, a Larson fade could be called for and then you can pick a few lower priced drivers that can lead laps and have some place diff built in. Don't be afraid of the bargain basement this weekend, some back markers have made the perfect lineup by simply surviving. They don't have high ceilings but they pick up enough spots to at least pay off their salary.

Stage 1: 100 laps, Stage 2: 100 laps, Stage 3: 100 laps, Stage 4: 100 Lap

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kyle Larson ($11,300 DK, $14,000 FD)

I am a sucker for a fast car starting on the pole and I refuse to get too cute in cash. I have continued to roster the driver starting first even though they have had almost zero success, but this week could be different because we had practice and qualifying so the fastest car is the one starting first, not the driver with the best algorithm score. Also, this is an impound race, so the cars that were on the track Saturday for qualifying will be on the track Sunday for the race, no adjustments are allowed. Now back to Larson, he ran the third best single lap time in practice, the best 10 lap average and the third best 15 lap average. If he remains up front , the clean air will only add to his speed. To put it nicely, he does not have the best track history but he has arguably been the best driver this year at 1.5 mile tracks. Larson is not a lock this weekend but I believe he has the best chance to be the solo dominator, if the race were to play out that way.

Chris Buescher ($6,700 DK, $6,500 FD)

Buescher is starting 27th on Sunday and has the highest ceiling of any driver starting 25th or worse. In his last four races here he has an average finish of 17th including two top 10s. He didn't look fantastic in practice or qualifying but that shouldn't be too much of a concern, he will have all race to work on the car and if he races anything like he has this season I think Buescher is a lock for a top 20, with top 10 upside.

Tournament Targets

Martin Truex Jr ($11,100 DK, $14,500 FD)

This is your yearly reminder that Martin Truex Jr is the master of the day-night race. He is willing to sacrifice the beginning portion of the race (when the sun's out) to fine-tune his equipment for when the temperatures drop and the racing really picks up. I would discount Truex's practice times entirely and focus on his starting position (8th) and his average finish in his last fast four here (4.75, including a win and two races with 87 or more laps led). There is no doubt that Truex will be in the mix during the final stages of this race and the little bit of place differential he provides is good for about 20-30 laps led.

Matt DiBenedetto ($7,500 DK, $9,500 FD)

DiBenedetto is another driver who does not have a fantastic Charlotte history but has been racing very well this season. He starts 22nd on Sunday and did have two top 17 finishes here last year, but don't look too far further back in his track history because it is ugly. He was respectable in practice with the 16th best single lap time and the 11th best ten lap average. DiBenedetto has a decent chance at a top 15 which would put him right on the cusp of the perfect lineup.

Ryan Blaney ($9,000 DK, $11,000 FD)

Blaney is not my typical high-risk recommendation but he could serve an important purpose in our more balanced build. If you are fading Larson and or Truex and pivot to Elliott and some of the less expensive drivers, Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin look awfully attractive due to their place differential upside. I like Blaney as a low owned, low cost alternative to those two drivers. Blaney starts 11th and actually has a decent track history if you remove the one race where he blew his engine. The reason I like Blaney as a pivot off of Hamlin/Busch is that he only needs to finish in the top 5 to hit 5x by place differential alone. Hamlin would need a top 2 finish and Kyle Busch would need a top 6, but he starts 9 places further back. Blaney is in a prime spot to go overlooked and is a decent game theory play in tournaments.

Bargain Basement

Corey Lajoie ($5,600 DK, $3,500 FD)

Lajoie is a popular pick in this spot but he is one of the few drivers with a legitimate ceiling. He brings a low floor along, considering his 26th place starting position but he actually has two top 20s in his last three starts here, including a 12th place finish in May 2019.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Charlotte that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Kyle Busch ($10,200 DK, $13,500 FD)

Bubba Wallace ($7,000 DK, $5,000 FD)

Michael McDowell ($5,800 DK, $6,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,400 DK, $7,700 FD)

I am going with a kind of obvious pick here but there is no chance I am touching Stenhouse Jr this weekend with his 2nd place starting position. To his credit, Stenhouse runs well here but he would need to hold on to a top 5 to hit 5x and he is more likely to crash directly into a wall for no apparent reason than finishing in the top 5.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the Coca-Cola 600 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!

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