LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Coca-Cola 600

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS and 2023(x3) FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Coca-Cola 600🏁

There is no shortage of differences between NASCAR and the other major professional sports leagues, but the biggest might be punches being thrown at the All-Star race. Literally no athlete cares about the Pro Bowl or NBA All-Star game, maybe there is some interest in the MLB but the drivers actually tried last weekend. No matter how you felt about the race itself, it was refreshing to see that these guys actually gave a damn.

Now, I hope everyone is enjoying their holiday weekend. Another thing NASCAR does exceptionally well is planning races on holiday weekends. Long time readers already know how much I love a good night race . Spending a whole day on the beach, grilling for dinner, then cracking open a couple of beers and relaxing as chaos ensues under the lights is my definition of a perfect day. If we are lucky, we get three such occurrences a year, and the first one is this weekend as the Cup Series travels to Charlotte Motor Speedway in Concord, NC. The track is a 1.5 mile banked quad oval. There is nothing notable about the track, but the race itself is a monster. 400 laps and 600 miles is a ton of racing, and the broadcast team will make sure to mention it as much as humanly possible over the 5-hour telecast. The two next-gen races here have been complete botch jobs with an average of 17 caught for 85 laps. Tires have held up better this year as teams have gotten better at dealing with the ideal pressures, but there is a non-zero chance this can be a mess.

To make matters worse, the later the race goes, the higher the chance of weather becoming an issue. While it currently looks like a 30% chance of rain after 7pm, there’s a chance the races goes until around 11, making everything that much dicier.

_{On to Charlotte!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 400 laps will be run this week, and 100 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 325 laps should run under the green flag for 146.25 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

That’s right, four stages, 400 laps, 600 miles, and no shortage of dominator points. Despite the increased number of laps, races at Charlotte generally result in a fairly standard major dominator/minor dominator split, with the major dominator leading around 150 laps and the minor dominator leading around 75 laps. There is obviously another driver that leads smaller chunks of laps, but nothing significant. Unfortunately, there is no clear advantage to starting in a specific range. Major dominators can come from anywhere, especially considering they have 250 laps to get up front and can still lead 150 laps before the evening is over. While that isn’t exactly encouraging news, we will need to just focus on building two dominator lineups, more laps does not always mean more dominators.

Place differential drivers are also an interesting phenomenon in Charlotte. We want at least four top 10 finishers here and the dominators don’t necessarily have to start in the top 10 so there is a chance a lineup that contains only drivers starting 11th or worse can have two dominators and four place differential drivers (like the 2022 race). Anyone who is fast can make their way through the field. Our player pool is wide open this weekend, making it great for tournaments.

The one consistent feature of the last two perfect lineups is the presence of a bargain basement driver. We will most likely need one punt with top-15 potential, a much bigger ask than most tracks. In cash games, we will probably want to just pick a cheap driver that is starting in the rear and can’t hurt us too much, but in tournaments, we will need to take some risks with our basement drivers.

Stage 1: 100 Laps

Stage 2: 100 Laps

Stage 3: 100 Laps

Stage 4: 100 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Chris Buescher ($8,500 DK, $10,000 FD)

Buescher suffered some damage during practice, preventing him from qualifying. As a result, he starts 39th on Sunday night and that has cash game lock written all over it. Buscher posted the 7th best single lap speed in practice as well as the 3rd best ten lap average before running into trouble. His worst result at a correlated track this season was 17th, which would be good for 48 DK pts. Honestly, that seems like the floor for Buecher on Sunday, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he ended up in the top 10.

Todd Gilliland ($6,500 DK, $5,200 FD)

Gilliland got a decent price bump this weekend but he is in great form. Todd starts 35th on Sunday and he is still cheap enough to hit value if he just runs a clean race. Gilliland is coming off back to back top 15 finishes and only needs a 23 or better to be useful. While Todd struggled a bit over the short run in practice on Saturday , he was able to post the tenth best 15 lap average and I am expecting more of that under the lights.

Tournament Targets

Martin Truex Jr ($9,500 DK, $10,500 FD)

Truex Jr. starts 4th on Sunday, and I think he is the most likely dominator in the top 10. We discussed earlier that starting position is not an indicator of dominator potential, but it doesn’t exactly hurt either. Truex is a former winner at Charlotte and is known as the king of the day to night race. Martin’s ability to have his car ready for the late stages of a race is unrivaled, and if he’s anywhere near the front once the sun goes down, I think this is his race to lose.

Kyle Busch ($8,000 DK, $8,500 FD)

For some reason my model is in love with Busch this weekend, maybe it appreciates a good pit fight like the rest of use, or perhaps it can’t resist a good #narrativestreet play. Either way, Kyle is my risky play of the week from his 15th place starting position. While this play isn’t the riskiest, this is not the same Busch of yesteryear, and his confidence in his car is close to zero. Despite all that, he ran the 4th best 10 lap average and has a top finish of 4th at correlated tracks this season. He finished 6th here last year with RCR and I am looking for him to improve on that this Sunday.

Bargain Basement

Corey LaJoie ($5,900 DK, $4,200 FD)

LaJoie is going to garner some attention due to high eye-popping practice times, but I think it’s his top 15 potential that makes him very interesting. Corey is starting 21st on Sunday, which brings a ton of downside into play and makes him a tournament-only play, but in the topsy-turvy race where the dominators start in the teens and the place differential drivers start in the 30s, we might as well have the punts start in the 20s right?

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Charlotte that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Ryan Blaney ($10,300 DK, $12,000 FD)

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($6,600 DK, $5,500 FD)

Ross Chastain ($8,200 DK, $8,200 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

William Byron ($10,000 DK, $12,500 FD)

This is a big boy fade if I’ve ever made one. Byron started the season on a complete tear but has recently cooled off a touch. He qualified second and will be a popular dominator pick. He has not been impressive at correlated tracks over the last two seasons, with an average finish of 23.3 and an average place differential of -9. While Byron can run away with this race, I believe he has a higher chance of falling back and taking 30% of the field with him.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 10-14 (-1.25 u)

Gragson has flown under the radar this year but has sneakily posted top 10 finishes in three of the last four races. He starts 19th on Sunday but ran top seven 5, 10 and 20 lap averages in practice. Over 100 simulated races, my model predicted he would finish in the top 10 70% of the time which is admittedly high but given his +200 odds this is close to a must bet.

I did not intend on betting Chastain two weeks in a row, but this is a mispriced matchup. Gibbs and Chastain have been in a dead heat all season. They finished within three places of each other at all three correlated tracks this season, with Gibbs currently winning 2-1. Gibbs is incredibly close to winning his first race, I don’t think its this weekend.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 5-8(+5.9 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For comments on every driver and additional stats, check out the Coca-Cola 600 Cheatsheet

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