🔥Written by 2020 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Coca-Cola 600🏁

I hope everyone is enjoying their Memorial Day Weekend. Over the years I have grown to appreciate a nighttime NASCAR race on a holiday weekend. While I enjoy spending the day at the beach, a BBQ and a couple of beers with family with the race on in the background, make sure to pause a second and remember all of the brave men and women who have lost their lives defending our freedom. Now that the preachy PSA is over, Charlotte Motor Speedway in Concord, NC will play host to the Coca-Cola 600 this Sunday night. This race is the longest race of the season and is the only race that has four stages. Charlotte is a 1.5 mile, banked, quad-oval that I personally prefer as a Roval but the history behind this race makes it a must watch event. The weather for the race should be perfect but all eyes will be on the tires, if cars can't go longer than 30 green flag laps without someone having an issue this could devolve into a mess.

On to Charlotte!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 400 laps will be run and 100 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 350 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 157.5 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

Be prepared for a four-hour race Sunday night, and that is without any excess cautions. Just like at short tracks, when there are 400 laps worth of dominator points available we need to get our dominators right. Four of the last six 600s only had one dominator that led between 233-392 laps and three of those drivers started on the pole. When the pole sitter doesn't run away with the race, one driver starting in the top 10 usually leads 100 laps and another driver can dominate but the secondary dominator can come from anywhere in the field. Clean air is incredibly important with the new car but tires have been a major issue for almost everyone, I think we should still stick with loading up on our obvious place differential plays and then spreading our dominator ownership out.

Speaking of place differential plays, drivers can make big moves during this race. While we may want to roster one or two drivers starting in the top 10 that we think can dominate, our other drivers must have the potential to finish in the top 10. We can settle for top 15 drivers but they still need to pick up at least 10 spots in the process.

Stage 1: 100 laps, Stage 2: 100 laps, Stage 3: 100 laps, Stage 4: 100 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kyle Larson ($11,300 DK, $14,500 FD)

Larson was lightning quick during practice on Saturday, running the fastest single lap speed and second-best 5 lap average... then he hit the wall. He was not able to make a qualifying lap so whether he ends up fixing his car or goes to a backup, Larson will be scored from 36th. Kyle completely dominated this race last year, starting on the pole and leading 327 laps en route to victory lane. This year he has struggled, especially compared to 2021 and was actually my early week fade but considering his starting position he is a cash free square even as the most expensive driver on the slate.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($7,400 DK, $7,000 FD)

Ricky Stenhouse Jr in cash is insane. As it turns out, I also might be insane. Of all the tracks where Stenhouse could possibly run pure, superspeedways and the Coca-Cola 600 seem to be his bread and butter. Ricky starts 29th on Sunday and is coming off of a top 20 finish in nine of his last ten races at Charlotte including top 10 finishes in three of his last five. Stenhouse showed respectable speed at Kansas and Las Vegas (the other two non-superspeedway 1.5 mile tracks this season) and is coming off of three straight top 8 finishes. I can't quite explain why Stenhouse has been so successful at Charlotte but he has the potential to pick up more than 10 spots and finish in the top 15, both things we are looking for in our place differential drivers.

Tournament Targets

Denny Hamlin ($10,500 DK, $11,500 FD)

Hamlin starts on the pole on Sunday and I laid out in the Lineup Construction section why that is important for this race. Hamlin also ran the best simple lap and 5 lap average of the top 3 starting drivers in practice on Saturday. Any other year I would have preferred Hamlin over Larson in cash but considering the high incidence rate this year with the tires, I worry that Hamlin could get caught in the variance. While Hamlin is not a lock button option, he is the most likely major dominator and could completely break the slate if he is able to exploit his clean air advantage. His Toyota and Joe Gibbs teammates are also very fast so this could turn into a very interesting 400 laps.

Ross Chastain ($9,800 DK, $10,500 FD)

I really dislike writing up this many expensive drivers but I find this range very interesting this week. I like Ross as a dominator pivot off of Hamlin for big tournaments and satellites. He starts 22nd on Sunday and honestly his track history is pitiful but I am taking everything before this year with a grain of salt when it comes to Chastain. He has been arguably one of the most consistent drivers at 1.5 mile tracks this season and has two top 7 finishes to show for it. He was not impressive at practice but he has proven all year that he shows up on race day with a very fast car and he will have 400 laps to navigate to the front of the field.

Bargain Basement

Corey Lajoie ($4,900 DK, $3,000 FD)

Lajoie is another driver who had problems during practice on Saturday but instead of being the most expensive driver in the field, he is one of the least expensive. Corey is starting dead last, 37th, on Sunday and has an incredible track history with four straight top 23 finishes. He also has two top 20 finishes at 1.5 mile tracks this season. While I think that is more of a ceiling than a reasonable expectation, Lajoie has a great shot to crack the top 25 and that will be more than enough to pay off his salary.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Charlotte that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Kevin Harvick ($8,000 DK, $8,000 FD)

Chris Buescher ($6,700 DK, $5,000 FD)

Brad Keselowski ($6,600 DK, $5,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Austin Cindric ($7,100 DK, $6,500 FD)

Cindric started the season off hot with a win at Daytona, but has only been able to muster on top 10 since (and that was at a road course). Austin is starting 6th on Sunday and turned in respectable practice times but there is no indication he has a race dominating car and he has way too much downside to tolerate.

Pitstop Picks

8-20 (-10.7u)

I love Harvick this week again, just didn't have enough room to write him up. I am taking another stab at his top 10 odds because they are borderline insulting. He finished in the top 10 in six of the last seven races here and has three top 10 finishes in his last five races this season.

I generally avoid these long-shot bets but I think this is a fun one to have a little exposure to. The Joe Gibbs cars were very fast in practice and Treux had the fastest car of the team, running the best single lap time as well as 5 and 10 lap averages. Chastain also had an impressive single lap time during practice and has been one of the most consistent drivers this season. This is a long shot for a reason, so I am not wagering a full unit but considering how DK usually prices things this should probably be closer to a +1200 line.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Coca-Cola 600 cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!