LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Coca-Cola 600

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Check out the Coca-Cola 600 Cheatsheet

Coca-Cola 600🏁

Memorial Day Weekend is known for a couple of reasons. It is the unofficial start of Summer, a day to remember our fallen soldiers and the year’s biggest day of motorsports. Enjoy F1’s Monaco Grand Prix in the morning, the Indy 500 in the afternoon, and the Coca-Cola 600 in the evening. One of NASCAR’s Crown Jewel events, the Coca-Cola 600 takes place at Charlotte Motor Speedway in Concord, NC, and is the longest race on the schedule. It consists of 400 laps on the 1.5-mile, moderately banked quad oval. This is also the only race with four stages, equally spaced out with 100 laps each. The 600 is a looooooong event that starts under the lingering sun and ends under the lights almost five hours later. Depending on how the tires behave, this could either be a wreckfest or an uneventful evening; we will find out this Sunday night.

The weather ruined Larson’s attempt at doing the double last year and could add some wrinkles to this year’s event as well. Currently, there is a 10%- 35% chance of rain throughout race time, and that is always subject to change closer to the green flag.

Programming note: I will be out of the country next week, so I am taking the Nashville race off. I generally try to continue writing the Pitstop when I am away, but limited internet and Sportsbook access are obstacles I will not be able to overcome.

_{On to Charlotte!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 400 laps will be run this week, and 100 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 315 laps should run under the green flag for 141.75 possible DK points)

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

1) There will be two dominators. Stage breaks and tires will jumble the field eventually but when there are 400 laps available to lead, at least 2 drivers will figure out a way to be up front for at least 80 of them. The front row offers a significant advantage at Charlotte and I would expect the second dominator to also start in the top 10.

2) Drivers starting up front can be successful. Rostering four drivers starting in the top 20 has been a successful strategy in the Next Gen Era. Two of those drivers should be potential dominators starting in the top 10, and you could roster two drivers starting 10-20 that you think can finish in the top 10.

3) The Bargain Basement is open. Survival could be the name of the game in this marathon of a race but we would like our basement picks to have at least top 20 potential.

Stage 1: 100 Laps

Stage 2: 100 Laps

Stage 3: 100 Laps

Stage 4: 100 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Ross Chastain ($9,000 DK, $9,000 FD): Chastain is starting dead last but has top-10 upside, which makes him a no-brainer for cash. Ross dominated this race in 2022 and posted top-15 practice times. He is not a contender to win the race, but I love his floor/ceiling combination this Sunday.

Bubba Wallace ($7,300 DK, $7,800 FD): Wallace has been bringing fast cars to the track all season but is a touch snake bitten. He starts 32nd on Sunday and should be in the top 20 in no time. Bubba is coming off two consecutive top 11 finishes here, and if he can continue that streak, he will be a lock for the perfect lineup.

Brad Keselowski ($7,600 DK, $7,500 FD): RFK racing has had some great cars at 1.5-mile tracks over the past few seasons, but Buescher always seems to be the one driving them. While Chris is starting in the top 10, his boss will begin the race 35th, a place I do not expect him to be in for very long. Keselowski finished 2nd in the rain-shortened race last season, and I really think a top-15 finish is a reasonable expectation.

Tournament Targets

Kyle Larson ($11,500 DK, $14,000 FD): Larson is chasing history on Sunday by completing the Indy 500 and the Coca-Cola 600. He starts on the front row for the 600, and he is my favorite dominator option. When everything is running smoothly, Larson is really in a league of his own and can run away with the race. Unfortunately, he is also prone to mishap,s so I would not suggest more than a 60% ownership allocation.

Carson Hocevar ($7,200 DK, $6,800 FD): Carson is not a frequent flyer on this side of the Pitstop, but he starts 39th. I do not trust him nearly as much as I do the other drivers starting this far back in the field, and that is why he was relegated to a tournament-only spot. However, Hocevar has the ability to sneak under the radar and find himself in the top 15 when the black/white checkered flies.

Ryan Preece ($7,100 DK, $6,500 FD): Preece has been having a solid season and always finds himself in the top 10 at some point during a race. The key is finishing there, and he has his work cut out for him, considering his 28th-place starting position.

Chase Elliott ($9,500 DK, $11,000 FD): I cannot figure out why, but my model predicts Elliott to be the winner on Sunday. He starts 22nd, which allows him to place the differential role of the lineup, but besides that, this is a “trust the model play.” We hit with a random Logano shot at Texas, let’s see if we can catch lightning in a bottle a second time.

Bargain Basement

Todd Gilliland ($5,900 DK, $4,500 FD)

Gilliland is starting 34th on Sunday and has legitimate top-20 upside. In his last three races here, he has two top-17 finishes and posted top-15 lap times in practice. In a race where most of the basement qualified way over their heads, Gilliland provides some safety and upside.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Charlotte that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Ryan Blaney ($10,200 DK, $12,000 FD)

Kyle Busch ($8,800 DK, $10,000 FD)

Daniel Suarez ($6,900 DK, $6,200 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

John H. Nemechek ($5,700 DK, $3,800 FD)

Nemechek is starting 6th, and there is zero chance he finishes in the top 15. He is a mess on a good day, and there are tens of faster cars starting behind him. There is very little depth in the basement this weekend, but we can do better than Nemechek.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 28-40 (2.2 u)

2025 results: 13-11 (11.45 u)

Reddick is the only driver in the field that is 3/3 in top 10s in the 600, but he doesn’t have a win. Hamlin won here in 2022 but has lost this H2H matchup the last two years. My model has both of these drivers finishing in the top 5, but gives Hamlin a clear edge.

Underdog is slacking again this week because of the F1 race so we are trying another top 10 parlay. My model actually has both of these guys finishing in the top 5, including a win for Elliott. I don’t like having one driver involved in both bets, but Reddick is in an interesting spot this weekend.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 11-15 (+11.45 u)

2025 Results: 1-2 (-1 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For additional stats, check out the  Coca-Cola 600 Cheatsheet

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