Written by @joejets19

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Buschy McBusch Race 400 🏁

I want to start this week off by saying I can't see the name of this race without shaking my head. Busch ran a name a race promotion earlier this year that was decided by a fan vote and this is how we got to the Buschy McBusch Race 400. It will take place on Sunday at Kansas Speedway in Kansas City, KS. The track is a 1.5-mile banked tri-oval. For whatever reason, we historically see the cream rise to the top at Kansas, the last nine races have been won by only six different drivers (Logano, Hamlin x2, Keselowski, Elliott, Harvick x2, and Truex x2). The weather may be an issue on Sunday so we will have to be diligent about our lock time.

On to Kansas!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 267 laps will be run this and 66.75 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 230 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 103.5 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

This week we are back at a cookie-cutter 1.5-mile track, so a standard DFS approach would be applicable....except the field is entirely jumbled and DK priced the drivers appropriately so it is going to be an interesting slate. Looking at the long term track history, we would expect a major dominator that leads 100+ laps and a secondary dominator that leads 70+ laps. Neither race in 2020 had a driver that led more than 100 laps and neither race in 2019 had a secondary dominator that led more than 63 laps so there is a chance we could see a number of drivers up front on Sunday. The trend of where dominators start from is also split between recent races and long term history. The perfect lineup for last Fall's race had three drivers starting in the top 6 but none of the three previous perfect lineups featured a driver starting better than 5th. In contrast, the driver starting on the pole was in the perfect lineups for every race in 2016, 2017, and 2018. This leaves us in a really strange place for Sunday, with high priced placed differential drivers and lower priced dominators. I believe in cash we should only pick one driver starting in the top 10 and round out the rest of our lineup with two high priced dominators and three lower priced drivers with top 20 potential. In GPPs we should aim to capture as many laps led as possible so two dominator lineups will be preferred but we should also roster one stud place differential driver and three less expensive place differential drivers with top 15 potential.

Stage 1: 80 laps, Stage 2: 80 laps, Stage 3: 107 laps

Competition Caution: Lap 25

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kyle Larson ($11.300 DK, $13,500 FD)

I fancy the lineup foundation picks as the top cash game options and it is hard to pass up the place differential potential of Larson. He is the most expensive driver on DK and the second most expensive on FD but he starts 32nd so he will need to do some serious work to get laps led. A top 10 finish would guarantee at least 56 DK pts which would the bare minimum for cash, but I also do think that is his floor. Larson has two top 7 finishes at similar tracks this year including a win at Las Vegas. He is coming off of three disappointing races in the last four so the public may be sour on Larson but I think he is a great cash play with GPP winning upside.

Erik Jones ($7,800 DK, $7,000 FD)

Jones has been fantastic here in his career and I am looking for that to continue on Sunday. He has an average finish of 7.67 in his last six races here with three top 5 finishes. Admittedly Jones had all of his previous success with his old team but he does not need a 7th place finish to pay off his salary due to his starting position of 27th. A 15th place finish would get him at least 40 DK points and put him in perfect lineup contention.

Tournament Targets

Brad Keselowski ($9,700 DK, $12,500 FD)

I am a sucker for a good driver starting on the front row and I am going to fall into the trap again in GPPs. Kes has not had any truly dominant performances at Kansas but he does have a win and 76 combined laps led in his last five races here. Keselowski is coming off of a surprising win at Talladega and is hoping to keep the good times rolling on Sunday. I expect him to have a faster car than every driver in the top 6 with his first real challenge coming from Blaney who starts 7th. If Kes can lead the entire first stage and finish well he should have a decent chance to be in the winning lineup this weekend.

Corey Lajoie ($5,500 DK, $4,000 FD)

Mid-range place differential drivers practically don't exist on this slate so I am thinking we may need to double dip in the bargain basement. I was deciding between Corey Lajoie and Chris Buescher for this spot but ultimately I gave Lajoie the tip of the hat. To make it short and sweet, reasons to like Lajoie more than Buescher: Lajoie is cheaper, is starting 26th (compared to 16th) and he would score the same amount of DK pts with a 20th place finish vs a 15th place finish for Buescher. I don't feel great about either pick but these are the types of decisions we are going to have to make on Sunday.

William Byron ($8,800 DK, $9,500 FD)

Byron starts second on Sunday and he is the definition of a risky play. He will be battling with Keselowski and Harvick early and I could see a scenario where he steals the lead early and becomes the first dominator before all of the other cars starting further down the field makes their way upfront. Byron was able to lead 25 laps at Las Vegas this season, won at Homestead and has finished in the top 8 in each of the last 8 Cup races. He is on an incredible run and still may go overlooked so this is a prime opportunity to buy low.

Bargain Basement

Justin Haley ($5,100 DK, $2,000 FD)

Haley is the driver I keep hoping will break away from the pack but still manages to disappoint. He is starting 31st on Sunday and has a better car than at least two drivers starting ahead of him. While I only see a ceiling of 25th, he is very cheap and there are more expensive drivers who have a legitimate risk of scoring negative points. Overall Haley is not a driver to build around but is a solid final piece to complete the puzzle of this slate.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Kansas that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Austin Cindric ($6,700 DK, $6,200 FD)

Alex Bowman ($10,200 DK, $9,200 FD)

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,000 DK, $13,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Michael McDowell ($5,800 DK, $5,000 FD)

Not going to get fancy this week, McDowell has the ability to destroy any lineup he is in and I will own 0% on Sunday. He has an average finish of 22nd in his last 6 races here and an average finish of 23.38 at similar tracks but is starting 3rd on Sunday. There is less than a 5% chance McDowell holds on to a top 10 on Sunday and if he falls any further back than that he will be completely unusable.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the Buschy McBusch Race 400 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!

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