LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Brickyard 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Check out the Brickyard 400 Cheatsheet

Brickyard 400🏁

Being on the wrong side of a one-dominant race makes for a loooooong Sunday afternoon, and that was our predicament last weekend at Dover. Fading a heavily owned pole sitter is not for the weak of heart because there is a ton of downside. Still, the upside is we have a chance at redemption this Sunday when the NASCAR Cup Series travels to Indianapolis Motor Speedway in Speedway, Indiana, for the Brickyard 400 Presented by PPG. The track is a 2.5-mile, flat, rectangular oval with four symmetrical 0.625-mile turns, two 0.625-mile-long straightaways, and two 0.125-mile short straightaways. This is only the second race on the traditional track in the Next Gen Era, with the other races taking place on a road course. While there is limited data with this car on this track, one thing remains constant: Indy has the trickiest pit road on the Circuit, and more than one driver’s day will be ended in the pits.

Mother Nature is going to be messing with us again this weekend. There looks to be about a 50% chance of rain around 5 pm on Sunday, right around time for the checkered flag. Indy tends to be one of the more unpredictable races on the circuit, and rain strategy could shake things up.

On to Indy!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 160 laps will be run this week, and 40 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 125 laps should run under the green flag for 56.25 possible DK points)

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

1) Expect Chaos. There are not a ton of dominator points available on Sunday, and lap leaders could be all over the place. Short pitting stages, rain, and on-track mishaps will all combine to jumble up the field. I don’t think we will need to focus on dominators this weekend; instead, we need to find drivers that we believe can finish in the top 10.

2) Practice times are important. While last year’s race might not be the best thing to base our projections on, my model likes drivers who practiced well, much more than drivers who qualified well. Let's focus on track history and practice times going into Sunday and not worry about starting position as much.

3) The basement still may not be the best idea. Yes, there will be chaos, but it will still require a good car to capitalize on. There will be enough place differential that starting 35th and finishing 20th won’t land anyone in the perfect lineup. That is a decent real-life day and will probably be okay in cash, but to take down a tournament, we will need top-10 finishes.

Stage 1: 50 Laps

Stage 2: 50 Laps

Stage 3: 60 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Denny Hamlin ($11,000 DK, $14,000 FD): Hamlin had arguably the best car in practice, but an accident in qualifying will make him start last on Sunday in a backup car. I am not worried about the car and think this is an excellent opportunity for a lock-and-load cash play.

Ross Chastain ($8,300 DK, $7,200 FD): After writing how practice times are important, I immediately recommend a driver who had almost no short-run speed. Chastain ran into trouble last weekend and let down a ton of people. I love this as a bounce-back situation with a ton of place differential upside.

John H. Nemechek ($6,200 DK, $6,000 FD): Hell might have frozen over. Nemechek has worked his way out of the basement and posted top 5 practice times. While that may be fluky, considering his starting position and salary, even if he has a top 15 car, that will be more than enough for cash. His tournament viability is another argument entirely, but for now, he is a fantastic cash play.

Tournament Targets

Kyle Larson ($10,500 DK, $13,500 FD): Larson won here last year and looks to have a top 5 car this Sunday. He starts 13th and is only the third-highest priced driver on the slate. There is a real chance Kyle finds himself leading some laps this weekend, and as long as he finishes in the top 5, he has an opportunity to make the perfect lineup.

Ryan Blaney ($10,700 DK, $11,500 FD): Blaney’s car did not show the speed we needed to see but we know he is good here and starting 24th gives him plenty of place differential. While I highly doubt Blaney leads any laps, I love his chances for a top 10, and he has top 5 upside.

Daniel Suarez ($6,900 DK, $5,200 FD): Suarez is one of the few drivers that my model likes this weekend, and he is projected to finish 13th. From his 31st-place starting position, that would be an incredible move, and it would certainly put him in consideration for the perfect lineup.

Austin Dillon ($6,000 DK, $5,000 FD): Dillon is a bit of a mess, and that makes him the risky pick of the week. Austin had the 6th-best single lap speed, but then his car fell off a cliff on the long run. He starts 20th, is dirt cheap, and is hungry, so if he can parlay all of that into a top 12 finish, he may be able to make us so very happy.

Bargain Basement

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($5,700 DK, $4,800 FD)

I like Stenhouse Jr. so much this week, I almost wrote him up as a foundational pick. While cooler heads may have prevailed, Ricky is still a great option for the basement. He starts 32nd on Sunday and posted the 16th-best single lap speed during practice. Like Dillon, Stenhouse’s car did not have any long run speed, but Ricky provides a ton more place differential with arguably the same projected finishing position.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Indianapolis that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Ty Gibbs ($8,600 DK, $9,500 FD)

Zane Smith ($5,900 DK, $4,000 FD)

Chase Elliott ($10,000 DK, $12,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

AJ Allmendinger ($6,800 DK, $6,500 FD)

While I don’t expect there to be a ton of ownership on Allmendinger this weekend, I will be rolling out the complete fade. AJ qualified well, walking away with the 9th place starting position, but he was slow in practice and doesn’t have a great history here or at similar tracks. I don’t anticipate AJ finishing inside the top 20, and that will be a significant problem.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 28-40 (2.2 u)

2025 results: 17-23 (5.9 u)

Both drivers start in the top 4, with Briscoe on the pole and Reddick starting 4th. Briscoe has qualified on the top row six times this year, before this weekend, and has converted it into four top-four finishes, including two consecutive second-place finishes. He is not that good, so I expect him to run into some trouble today, leaving Reddick to have an easy W as long as he runs clean.

Full disclosure I am going all in on Denny in DFS so this is more of a hedge against catastrophe than anything. A top-7 finish will essentially guarantee a perfect lineup spot for Hamlin, so if he performs well and I am set up well for the slate, or he encounters trouble, my bet may cash. Byron starts 6th and will need to gain at least one spot to win his part of the bet. Just the slightest slip up will cost Byron this bet, and I don’t think this is going to be where William runs a perfect race.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 11-15 (+11.45 u)

2025 Results: 4-7 (-0.69 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For additional stats, check out the Brickyard 400 Cheatsheet

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