LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Brickyard 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Brickyard 400🏁

Mother Nature finally gave us a break last weekend, although she managed to scare us a bit in the morning, and we saw the first non-delayed race in what feels like two months. Pocono turned into another pit strategy race, which I don’t hate, but those types of races destroy any dominator potential. This weekend, the NASCAR Cup Series makes a triumphant return to the oval at Indianapolis Motor Speedway in Speedway, IN, for the Brickyard 400. The track is a relatively flat 2.5-mile rectangle with two 5/8 mile straightaways, two 1/8 mile straightaways, and four identical ¼ mile turns. While “The Brickyard” might be the Mecca of American Motorsports, as NASCAR has progressed, the track has not produced the types of races that would honor such a distinction. This will be the first race on the traditional oval since 2020, so maybe the new rules package will liven up this event a bit.

While Sunday may not be the sunniest, no precipitation is forecast for the race. The weathermen get the week off.

_{On to Indy!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 160 laps will be run this week, and 40 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 135 laps should run under the green flag for 60.75 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

This is a nightmare race from a research perspective. Indy is a long flat track, not similar to the short flats that litter the NASCAR schedule. It is also a unique rectangular shape, so there is no direct correlation between “The Brickyard” and any other track. If that wasn’t bad enough, it has been nearly four years since the Cup Series has run the oval here, so half the field hasn’t run here in a Cup car, and the other half hasn’t run here with THIS Cup car. While that might be enough to make anyone drink heavily while building lineups, the last few races at Indy have been marred by pit road incidents because this track was not made for cars this big. Therefore, our limited results may be skewed because some of the top cars were taken out by a pit road “Big One.”

While that was a giant “woe is me” preamble, let’s jump into this race. Similar to Pocono, Indy is a very large track, but there is some speculation that short-pitting a stage will not be a viable strategy because the driver may go down a lap. This weekend's stages are more balanced, and there should be enough variance between pit strategies that the dominator potential could be limited. I will rely heavily on practice information to try and pinpoint teams that might have a good car but underperformed in qualifying. We aim to find five drivers that we think can finish inside the top 10 with a positive place differential. I expect a balanced lineup will be successful on Sunday, so I wouldn’t stress out about trying to lock in a driver starting on the front row or the top 5. Even if a fast car makes its way to the front, the strategy may have a bigger impact on his performance than his speed, and I really think this may be another no-dominator race.

While there was a significant speed difference between the best and the worst cars in practice, the track is so big, and there will be enough caution that even the slowest cars won’t go too many laps down. A single basement driver should be viable in cash, but they would need to have the top 15 potential in tournaments.

Stage 1: 50 Laps

Stage 2: 50 Laps

Stage 3: 60 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Ross Chastain ($8,100 DK, $8,200 FD)

Chastain had a Friday to forget, and qualifying on Saturday wasn’t much better. While that isn’t what you want to hear about a cornerstone pick, the end result of his struggles is a 28th-place starting position, and that is something to get excited about. Ross is easily a top 15 driver, and since 2022, he has an average finish of 9.85 at correlated tracks. However, I am skeptical of Chastain’s ceiling, and I expect him to be a fairly popular option, so I wouldn’t be opposed to a tournament fade.

Josh Berry ($7,500 DK, $7,200 FD)

Berry can’t seem to get out of his way sometimes, but I think I have him figured out. When Josh qualifies well, avoid him at all costs. When Josh is starting in the rear (he is starting 37th on Sunday), load up on him. Berry was respectably fast in practice, turning in the 13th best single-lap speed and 19th best 5-lap average, and his average finish at correlated tracks is 19.4 in the next-gen era. While his car will be fast enough for a top 20 finish, we will just need him to run 160 clean laps.

Tournament Targets

Brad Keselowski ($9,300 DK, $10,500 FD)

Keselowski was incredibly fast in practice on Friday then completely messed it up on Saturday. Brad starts on the 26th this weekend, and I love that position for him because I honestly think he has a top 5 car. Fords have traditionally been very fast at the larger ovals, and I expect that to continue on Sunday. Besides the speed in his car, my favorite thing about Keselowski is his willingness to attempt an alternate pit strategy to gain an edge on the field. His gambling nature fails more often than it succeeds, but when he hits it right, Brad can go from middle of the pack to race winner in an instant.

Alex Bowman ($8,200 DK, $8,000 FD)

This entire newsletter has been a risky play of the week because I can’t get a feel for how this race will unfold. I am going to stick to my no-dominator strategy with Bowman. He starts 13th, which gives him some place differential potential and a ton of downside. Alex has been running hot over the last month, with a win and 3rd place finish in his last two races. I am looking for Bowman to pair his recent success with his top 5 racecar and compete for the checkered flag on Sunday.

Bargain Basement

Corey Lajoie ($5,700 DK, $4,200 FD)

My model has completely lost its mind this weekend. Among the drivers it has fallen in love with, for no discernable reason, is Corey Lajoie starting 19th. By no means is Corey a cash play due to his starting position, but I could see a scenario where he would make a decent qualifier play. Lajoie’s average finish at correlated tracks is around 19, so he can tread water, and if he sneaks into the top 15, he would hit value. It may be a tall task but that would be his path to the perfect lineup.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Indy that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Chris Buescher ($8,500 DK, $5,500 FD)

Christopher Bell ($9,500 DK, $10,000 FD)

Ty Gibbs ($8,300 DK, $9,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,400 DK, $4,800 FD)

You would have to be absolutely insane to play Stenhouse starting 9th. He would have to be the lowest priced driver in the field to make this a remote possibility and since he isn’t even priced in the basement, I am rolling out a full fade.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 18-21 (6.9 u *niiiiiice*)

I don’t love this betting card, so we are going with half-unit bets. There are a couple of top-10 bets that I consider reaches, but DK priced them all at about even money. I think a top-10 finish is around Chastain’s ceiling, so I’m not happy about the price, but he does have a legitimate chance of cashing this, so we’ll hold our noses and eat our vegetables.

Again, I'm not in love with this slate as a whole. By all measures, Reddick has the car to beat this weekend, but I don’t think that will be the most important thing for this race. Running a mistake-free race and applying good strategy will be much more important on Sunday. Chase’s crew chief the often the butt of the joke but as a package, I’ll take Chase’s team over Reddick’s any day.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 9-10 (+11.4 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For comments on every driver and additional stats, check out the Brickyard 400 cheatsheet

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