🔥Written by 2020 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 400 🏁

The only thing better than a short track race is night racing and when you put them together NASCAR gets really fun. This Saturday night, Martinsville Speedway in Ridgeway, VA will host the Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 400. The track is a 0.526 mile, flat, paper clip shaped track with concrete in the turns and asphalt on the straightaways. The only thing that can rain on our parade this weekend is literally the rain, so let's hope we get a little lucky and this race doesn't get pushed to Sunday.

On to Martinsville!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 400 laps will be run and 100 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 300 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 135 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

Although this is the second short track in a row, I expect this race to play out differently than last week. While Richmond is a moderately predictable track by NASCAR standards, Martinsville has its fair share of incidents so no one is safe. In fact, the two dominators for last Fall's race both finished outside the top 10 and the race winner for last Spring's race didn't make the perfect lineup.

Like last week, we will start our lineups without dominators. In each of the last four races, there has been a major dominator that led more than 200 laps and a minor dominator that led 100-150 laps. All eight of those dominators started in the top 10 and three of them started in the front row. Oddly enough, only six of the eight drivers that led more than 100 laps ended up on the perfect lineup. Looking further back into the track history, there have been a few one dominator and some three dominator races, but overall I think a two dominator approach will be optimal.

When it comes to place differential drivers, we need to be fairly selective. Slow cars get lapped quickly and often at short tracks, but the high number of cautions can lead to marginal cars staying on the lead lap. Ideally, once we pick our dominators we should focus on drivers that can finish in the top 15, and that have top 10 upside. The perfect lineup will have at least three and as many as five drivers that finish in the top 10. Place differential does not necessarily matter as much as finishing well here because any driver that finishes the race will at least pick up a few spots, so we really want to focus on drivers that can land in the top 10.

The bargain-basement will be a tricky scenario this weekend. The moderate incidence rate suggests that a lower-tier driver should pick up spots by simply surviving, but these drivers will still need to make it to the top 25 to make the perfect lineup. We can't fade the basement this week but our goal is going to be a top 25 finish for any driver in this range.

Stage 1: 80 laps, Stage 2: 100 laps, Stage 3: 220 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Chase Elliott ($11,200 DK, $13,500 FD)

Elliott is the second most expensive driver on both sites this weekend and for good reason. Chase is starting on the pole this weekend and has had three top 5 finishes in his last four starts at Martinsville, including a win. He has also led more than 200 laps in two of those races. Elliott had the best single lap time in practice on Friday as well as the best 5, 20, 25, and 30 lap averages. This season's car seems to reward clean air at short tracks more this year and he was able to lock in the best pit box of the race so I wouldn't be surprised if Chase ran away with this race early, leaving everyone to hope that he stumbles along the way.

Ross Chastain ($8,800 DK, $9,000 FD)

Chastain is having a hell of a year so far with four top 3 finishes, including a win. He has his work cut out for him Saturday night, however, when he starts 27th. Chastain practiced much better than he qualified on Friday, running the 20th best single lap time and the 13th best 10 lap average. At similar tracks this season, Chastain has a 2nd place finish at Phoenix and a 19th last week at Richmond but don't be discouraged with that result because his average running position of 9th indicates that he was a victim of a late race mishap. Overall, Chastain is a solid place differential driver to build our lineups around with a top 15 floor and top 10 upsides.

Tournament Targets

William Byron ($9,500 DK, $10,500 FD)

This play is a bit outside of my comfort zone but that is pretty much how this season is going. Byron starts 5th on Saturday night but seemed to have a top 3 car during practice on Friday. Since track position is so important at Martinsville, I will be lowering my exposure to some of the bigger names starting outside the top 10 (Busch/Logano/Truex/Hamlin) and going overweight on Byron to try and capture as many laps led at possible. Byron is no stranger to running in the top 5 here, with three top 5 finishes in the last five races here and he arguably has the second to third best car in the field as it stands. While my head wants to pay up for the drivers that traditionally have dominated here in the past, I think we really need to keep our dominator pool to the top 10 and it's time to get exposure to these young studs before their prices skyrocket.

Bubba Wallace ($6,400 DK, $6,000 FD)

Any time I get to write up Bubba Wallace I get a migraine to smile. Somehow, at the tracks with the highest incidence rate, Wallace is able to turn in his most consistent results. Wallace has a positive place differential in 5 of the last six races at Martinsville including four top 17 finishes. He was also incredibly fast in practice, posting the 3rd fastest single lap time and he was in the top 6 in the 5, 10, 15, and 20 lap averages. Wallace is starting 21st on Saturday and has legitimate top 15 upside which is exactly what we are looking for, especially at his cheap price tag.

Bargain Basement

Corey Lajoie ($5,300 DK, $4,000 FD)

I think Lajoie (starting 26th) and Ty Dillon (starting 34th) are the two best basement drivers this weekend and would suggest Lajoie in tournaments and Dillon in cash games. Corey has two 18th places finishes to his name at Martinsville and I think he is starting far enough forward that he can avoid being lapped too quickly. Dillon on the other hand has the chance to pick up decent place differential but I worry about his ceiling. Overall I think Lajoie's floor is too risky for cash and I think Dillon's ceiling is too low for tournaments so I will be splitting my exposure.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Martinsville that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Kyle Larson ($10,600 DK, $11,000 FD)

Kurt Busch ($8,000 DK, $7,300 FD)

Tyler Reddick ($8,600 DK, $8,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

AJ Allmendinger ($6,600 DK, $5,000 FD)

Allmendinger is starting last on Saturday night due to inspection failures and will have to serve a pass-through penalty during the first lap of the race. This track is so short that there is a decent chance he will go more than one lap down while serving his penalty. Last week, Justin Haley was a hot topic of conversation because he was starting with the same handicap but the extra quarter-mile and an early caution bailed him out big time. I am banking on that being fresh on everyone's mind and Allmendinger garnering more ownership than he should ultimately providing us a solid leverage spot.

Pitstop Picks

I cooled down real quick after a hot start, lets turn it around this week.

4-12 (-6.65u)

Everyone knows that Truex has been the man at Martinsville recently but the conventional wisdom has mostly gone out the window this season and Blaney has been one of the most consistent drivers this year. Blaney is starting 8 spots ahead of Truex and was better over short and long runs during practice, I like his chances to win this matchup.

This pick almost feels dirty. Harvick practiced poorly but qualified well and has been able to turn into great results at similar tracks this season without having a great car. Keselowski has the best track history but I can't trust his car yet since he is looking for his first top 10 since Daytona. Reddick has a career-best finish of 8th which is respectable but may not be enough to outdo Harvick and I think Chastain is starting way to far back in the field. I don't think Harvick has nearly as big of an advantage as DK is pricing him as but he is still the best play of the group.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 400 cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!