Written by @joejets19

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Blue Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500 🏁

I hope everyone enjoyed the Easter break and is as excited as I am for the first night race of the season. The Blue Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500 will be held Saturday evening at Martinsville Speedway in Ridgeway, VA. The track is 0.526 mile, paperclip shaped, asphalt and concrete flat track. It has several unique characteristics including long asphalt straight-aways and sharp concrete turns. The only thing more worrisome than 500 high speed loops around Martinsville is the weather forecast, we will have to monitor that closely before the green flag drops.

On to Martinsville!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 500 laps will be run this and 125 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 440 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 198 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

500 laps bring a lot of dominator points to the table and without practice, these are my least favorite races. Seven of the last eight races had one driver lead at least 200 laps and if you missed out on him your night was pretty much done. Six of those eight races featured at least one other driver that led more than 100 laps including two instances where three drivers led more than 100. Almost every dominator started in the top 10 (with a high percentage starting in the top 3), but there have been a few outliers, drivers starting as far back as 17th leading significant amounts of laps. Overall I think we are going to need to take two drivers starting in the top 10 that we think can lead laps and finish well.

The importance of dominators would seem to imply a more stars and scrubs approach to previous perfect lineups but surprisingly that is not the case. A more balanced approach of two high priced drivers, three mid-priced drivers ($7,000-$8,000), and one inexpensive driver ($5,000-$6,000) has been very effective, especially recently. The finishing position is important for our non-dominating drivers, specifically finishing in the top 18. Drivers can make big moves at Martinsville so place differential is important but mostly we want three to four drivers that can finish well and pick up more than 6 spots in the process.

Stage 1: 130 laps, Stage 2: 130 laps, Stage 3: 240 laps

Competition Caution: Lap 60

Lineup Foundation Targets

Bubba Wallace ($7,300 DK, $7,000 FD)

Low-priced driver that can pick up spots and finish in the top 18, that has Wallace's name written all over it. I think the strategy going into this race, like many others this season, is to go overweight on our place differential drivers that we feel the most confidence in and then getting at least some exposure to every possible dominator in the hopes of building a solid base and nailing the correct dominator combination to propel us up the leaderboard. Wallace has three top 17 finishes in his last four Martinsville races and has an average positive place differential of 5.5 in his career here. He starts 25th on Sunday and has a realistic floor of 19th place with top 15 potential.

Matt DiBenedetto ($7,800 DK, $8,500 FD)

DiBenedetto is very reasonably priced this weekend and has considerable upside. His long term history at Martinsville is not great but last year he posted two top 10 finishes and he ran the 15th best green flag average during the fall race. He starts 22nd this weekend and is looking to build upon the speed he showed at similar tracks last season and turn it into a tournament-winning performance.

Tournament Targets

Martin Truex Jr ($12,000 DK, $14,000 FD)

I will be the first to admit that I have not gotten Truex right yet this entire season. He starts 7th this weekend and while that may not scream dominator, at first sight, there is no real disadvantage to starting this far back in the field. He has one of the best cars last fall, posting the second best green flag average, and was consistently one of the fastest cars at similar tracks last year. He is the most expensive driver of the slate so he needs to lead 100+ laps to even be in consideration for the perfect lineup but I think he will find his way up front eventually. Also don't forget that if this race goes all without a hitch, he is one of the best in the business at races that start in the sunlight and finish under the lights.

Cole Custer ($7,000 DK, $6,000 FD)

This pick is a bit of a weird one but let's talk it through. Custer starts 26th on Saturday and doesn't have the most noteworthy history at Martinsville but for some reason my models love him, giving him an average projected finish of 17.7. While digging deeper, I noticed he performed very well at similar tracks last year, posting an average finish of 17, and also was pretty fast here last fall (14th best green flag average). With everyone's eyes on Bowman/Wallace/Almirola, I think Custer will fly under the radar and if he sneaks into that magical top 18 he has a chance of making his way to the perfect lineup.

Joey Logano ($10,700 DK, $12,000 FD)

It's not often the pole-sitter ends up in the risky spot of the week but Logano's miserable pole history and the fact that starting first has not proven to be a major help with dominating, I think it is warranted. Arguably, Logano had the best car of the top four at Martinsville last year as well as at similar tracks so he is properly situated to lead a ton of laps early. He will most likely be caught eventually and then racing for playoff points but I think Logano has the best chance of leading early and has an outside shot to dominate wire to wire.

Bargain Basement

Corey Lajoie ($5,200 DK, $3,000 FD)

It is not every race where Lajoie provides legitimate upside, even when he starts 34th. Lajoie has two top 20 finishes in his last three races here and posted a positive place differential in five of the last six. There aren't a bunch of options down here this week and he is absolutely the top one.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Martinsville that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Alex Bowman ($9,200 DK, $9,500 FD)

Ryan Blaney ($10,100 DK, $11,500 FD)

Kurt Busch ($8,900 DK, $9,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Aric Almirola ($8,100 DK, $7,700 FD)

This is probably the riskiest fade of the season so far but Almirola has been lackluster here in his career and he has had a terrible season so far. He is starting 31st this weekend and will be wildly popular (I do recommend playing him in cash) due to his average finish of 18.5, but that comes with an average place differential of -11.5. While that does take into account two races he had car troubles, he also had a negative place differential in six of his last seven races here.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! 

Be sure to download the Blue Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!

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