LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Bass Pro Shops/NRA Night Race

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS and 2023(x3) FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Bass Pro Shops/NRA Night Race🏁

The first round of the playoffs concludes this Saturday evening when NASCAR travels to Bristol Motor Speedway in Bristol, TN, for the Bass Pro Shops/NRA Night Race. When it isn’t covered in dirt, the track is a 0.533 mile, steeply banked, concrete oval with two pit roads. There are many things that make Bristol unique, including its stands…this is the only track that is a fully enclosed stadium. Tons of laps and even more contact are the hallmarks of short track racing, and this weekend will be no different. Patience will be thin and tempers will be short while four drivers fight to keep their season alive with the other twelve drivers looking to set themselves up better for the next round.

Not only is this the last race of the first round of the playoffs, it is also the second race in the Fantasy Racing World Championship. Good luck to all of my fellow competitors.

Finally, there is a chance this race doesn’t actually take place on Saturday. The current forecast projects rain in the evening, forcing the start of the race to actually be pushed up to 6:35. While I love myself a good night race, the last thing we want is a weather-interrupted or shortened race. Hopefully, NASCAR will do everything it can to get the entire race

_{On to Bristol!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 500 laps will be run this week, and 125 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 430 laps should run under the green flag for 193.5 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

While it isn’t close to the longest race in terms of mile, you will not see a race longer than 500 laps on the NASCAR schedule. Dominators are the most important thing we are looking for on Saturday, and we will need to find more than one to be successful. Ten of the last eleven races featured at least two drivers that led 100 or more laps. In four of those races, there was a third driver that led 100 or more laps, and there was almost one race with four drivers. Most dominators start in the top 10, but drivers starting as far back as 24th have found their way up front for significant portions of the race. In six of the last eleven races, a driver starting on the front row ended up being a dominator, but never both drivers. This might be the only track where dominators are absolutely essential to have in your lineup, and it is almost an entire crapshoot where they are going to come from. There is strong evidence to suggest that rostering 2-3 drivers starting in the top 10 is a good way to capture a significant chunk of laps led, so I would target at least two top 10 drivers in all contest types and possibly aim for three such drivers in big tournaments.

Once we narrow down our dominator pool, we will want to find our place differential drivers. We will need to roster at least 5 drivers that finish in the top 10 if we want a chance to take down a tournament. That does not suggest a front loaded lineup like a road race, however, because drivers can make massive moves hes (going from the 30s to the top 10). Ideally, we will get lucky and one of our place differential drivers will end up being a dominator too, but those are more by chance so I wouldn’t expect all of that from these drivers.

Finally, we will be able to dip into the bargain basement, and they actually don’t have to perform exceedingly well to be useful at Bristol. We need all the firepower we can get from the studs in our lineups so rostering a punt is a good way to free up a little extra salary cap space.

Stage 1: 125 Laps

Stage 2: 125 Laps

Stage 3: 250 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kyle Larson ($11,500 DK, $14,000 FD)

Larson is going to be the highest owned driver in the field on Saturday night from his 36th starting position. Bristol is possibly one of his best tracks, and he had arguably the best car in practice on Friday, but a minor slip-up in qualifying sank him to the bottom of the field. Kyle has finished in the top 6 in five of his last six races here including a win and two second place finishes. He posted the fastest single lap speed and five lap average in practice and has 500 laps to make his way towards the front of the field. There is one thing to keep in mind, however: this is a ultra short track so the leader will be on Larson’s tail very quickly if he doesn’t pass cars right away. There is a chance he gets stuck a lap down early in the race, and that could take out more than half of the lineups. To put it bluntly, in big tournaments I don’t hate a fade because that is a great way to gain massive leverage.

Erik Jones ($7,400 DK, $7,000 FD)

Jones starting 31st on Saturday and may be a cash only play for me. While is average Bristol finish is 9.25 over his last four races here, his season average at similar tracks is not spectacular, and I think he may lack top 10 upside. He ran a top 20 single lap speed and five lap average, so I think he will make a fine cash game play, and I will certainly be even with the field in tournament ownership, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he posts a nice score and misses the perfect lineup.

Tournament Targets

Denny Hamlin ($11,200 DK, $13,500 FD)

While it is going to be TOUGH to fit Larson and Hamlin in the same lineup, I think Hamlin is the most likely dominator on Saturday, thus offering a much higher ceiling (to go along with his soul crushing floor). Denny starts second, alongside teammate Christopher Bell, and all signs point to Bell having a faster car on the short run, but by lap 15 in practice on Friday Hamlin had the better car. Denny is no stranger to racing in the front of the field at Bristol. He has five top 9 finishes in his last seven races here, including a win. Hamlin is not cheap and will need to dominate to pay off his salary on Saturday, but I think he is a fantastic tournament option.

Ross Chastain ($8,500 DK, $8,500 FD)

While everyone is going to be opting for a stars and scrubs approach on Saturday, Chastain offers a chance at an alternate lineup build. Ross starts 23rd this weekend and is priced in the mid range, which are two factors that should contribute to lower ownership. His practice speeds weren’t overly impressive but his average finish of 10th in his last two races at Bristol along with his average finish of 13.6 at similar tracks this season give me hope for his top 10 upside. I can guarantee almost no one will be looking at Ross on Saturday and it is that type of sneaky upside that can make all the difference in big tournaments.

Bargain Basement

JJ Yeley ($5,000 DK, $2,000 FD)

A name you don’t see in the Pitstop often, Yeley is actually deceptively good at Bristol. His average finish of 26.25 over his last four races here has to be close to his best at any track in the Cup circuit. Starting 35th, he has literally nowhere to go but forward and as long as he survives the race he should have positive place differential at the very least.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like at Bristol that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Kevin Harvick ($9,500 DK, $9,500 FD)

AJ Allmendinger ($6,400 DK, $5,500 FD)

Ryan Blaney ($8,800 DK, $10,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Christopher Bell ($10,800 DK, $12,500 FD)

Bell can’t get out of his own way, and starting from the pole, he has nowhere to go but down. Any pit mistake will be catastrophic for Christopher on Saturday, and with weather in the forecast, there is a chance that at the very least we get a competition caution which will just increase his risk. I say all this without even mentioning his worrisome long run speed. He had considerable fall off in practice on Saturday and I don’t think he has the long run speed to stay up front, which is not what you want to see when there are 500 laps ahead of you.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 12-37 (-14.75 u)

I love the idea of fading Bell every way I can, and getting a plus money H2H against him sounds delightful. Keselowski is sneaky good at Bristol, and I expect him to hang out in the top 10 all race.

I am obviously fading Bell here, Larson is starting last and should be able to make it into the top 10, but Byron and Hamlin are both going to be in contention for the win. Byron has two straight 3rd place finishes here and has been lights out at similar tracks this season. While I might like Hamlin in a H2H vs Byron, considering the odds I would take Byron and the juice every day of the week.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Bass Pro Shops/NRA Night Race and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!