🔥Written by 2020 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

💬Join the LineStar NASCAR Chat for info from experts.

🔗 Download the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race cheatsheet

🚨 Get 3 Free Months of LineStar Premium 🚨

Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race 🏁

The first round of the playoffs wraps up this weekend as NASCAR travels to Bristol Motor Speedway in Bristol, TN for the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race. The track is a 0.533 mile concrete, steeply banked short track. There are several things that make Bristol unique, it is the only stadium track on the NASCAR circuit (until the LA Coliseum next year) and it also has two pit roads. Racing is tight at Bristol and frustration can mount during the 500 laps, which truly put to the test the adage "rubbing is racing." On top of being another Saturday night race, which is always extra exciting, the King of the Speedway contest will be held this weekend and you can follow along here. Rain may be an issue this weekend which is the only thing that could put a damper on this otherwise fantastic race.

On to Bristol!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 500 laps will be run this and 125 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 450 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 202.5 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

Races just seem to get longer this time of year and we have a 500 lapper this weekend. I know it goes without saying but dominators will be our primary focus when constructing lineups because there are an obnoxious amount of dominator points available on Saturday. Races at Bristol generally feature at least two drivers and as many as four drivers that lead more than 80 laps. It is very hard (but not impossible) to fit all four dominators in the perfect lineup, so we tend to only have two dominator-perfect lineups. This adds an extra layer of angst to building rosters this week because even though you see your driver lead a bunch of laps early, there is still a chance they miss out on the perfect lineup. A high percentage of dominators start in the top 10, there was one race where three dominators started between 10-20 but besides that, there hasn't been a ton of variance. While starting on the front row does help a driver lead early, there are 500 laps to spread around so drivers starting 1st or 2nd usually need to win to end up on the perfect lineup.

There is so much attrition at Bristol that drivers can make huge moves just by surviving. Since dominators are important and tons of drivers run into trouble, stars and scrubs lineups end up being optimal. If we are aiming to roster 3 possible dominators, we will want two other cheaper drivers with top 10 potential and one punt that just needs to survive. The combination of high-risk roster construction and high variance will lead to some ugly lineups this weekend but there will be so much chaos that just a little bit of luck will help you skyrocket up the leaderboard.

Stage 1: 125 laps, Stage 2: 125 laps, Stage 3: 250 laps

Competition Caution: Lap 40

Lineup Foundation Targets

Ryan Blaney ($9,400 DK, $10,800 FD)

This is not a typical choice for a foundation target but Blaney actually is the type of driver we are looking to build around on Saturday. Blaney is starting 7th and is very reasonably priced for his upside. Removing his 40th place finish in May 2020, he has an average finish of 8.4 in his last four races at Bristol and has led 279 laps in that period (both times he started in the top 10). Blaney has been decently fast at short tracks this season and has been solid at correlated tracks this season. I don't expect Blaney to run away with the race but 60-80 laps led with a top 10 finish would be a fantastic way to start a cash team.

Ryan Preece ($6,000 DK, $5,000 FD)

Ryan Preece is going to be incredibly popular on Saturday night and will be a great example of cash vs tournament play. He starts 27th this weekend and has a fantastic track history at Bristol with a positive place differential in all four of his Cup races here and three top 20s. He has a high enough ceiling to be useful in double punt cash lineups but will be very popular in tournaments. This makes him an interesting tournament fade, or at least underweight candidate because if he only manages to slip into 17-20 he will not score enough to make it into the perfect lineup. Overall, I think Preece should be a cornerstone to any cash team and has some tournament utility but maybe over owned.

Tournament Targets

Kyle Busch ($11,500 DK, $13,500 FD)

Kyle Busch is the highest-priced driver on DK and the second-highest-priced driver on FD which is a bit of a headscratcher but could provide us a bit of an opportunity on Saturday. Everyone will be looking at Kyle's teammates as early dominators this weekend but their track history really worries me, I think the move is to pivot to Busch who is pretty much racing for his season. Kyle is coming off of four straight top 4 finishes at Bristol with 70 or more laps led in three of those races, including more than 100 laps led in both races last year which is important because there was no practice for those races either. Busch is starting 9th, the same starting position where he led 159 laps last September, and I think he has the potential to repeat that performance this weekend.

Ross Chastain ($7,800 DK, $9,500 FD)

Chastain is not a playoff driver and has been driving fast and carefree recently. He is starting 17th on Saturday and could bring top 10 potential to any lineup for cheap. Chastain has not finished well here but does have three straight races with positive place differential so he can survive a Bristol race and pick up spots when the opportunity presents itself. I think Chastain will go overlooked for some of the playoff drivers in his price range and believe he has as high of a ceiling as any place differential driver this race.

Kevin Harvick ($9,000 DK, $11,000 FD)

There are a ton of fast drivers starting in the top 10 this Saturday and while Harvick may not be one of the fastest, the ceiling he brings to the table for the price is almost unbeatable. Harvick is by no means a sure thing this weekend, which is why he landed himself in the risky pick of the week, but starting 8th he can find his way into the perfect lineup with 80 laps led and a top 10 finish. What separates him and Blaney (my cash recommendation) is the fact that Harvick and shown in the past that he can run away with a race at Birstol (Sept 2020 and Aug 2016) but can also completely implode (Aug 2019, Apr 2015). If a driver like Harvick were to end up being a dominator we could conceivably have another perfect lineup that features 3+ dominators so we will need some exposure to lower-priced, higher ceiling drivers.

Bargain Basement

Garrett Smithley ($4,700 DK, $2,000 FD)

This may be the first non-superspeedway that Smithley has even been mentioned on the Pitstop but I have to give him credit, he is pretty good at Bristol. In his two races here last season, Smithley had a positive place differential in both races and a top finish of 26th. He is starting 36th on Saturday and if he can survive the race that will probably be enough for him to pay off his salary.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Bristol that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Bubba Wallace ($7,500 DK, $7,000 FD)

Chris Buescher ($6,700 DK, $6,000 FD)

Kyle Larson ($11,300 DK, $14,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Martin Truex Jr ($9,900 DK, $12,000 FD)

Truex is starting on the pole on Saturday night and he is completely terrible at Bristol. He has one top 10 finish in his last seventeen races here and only one race with more than 52 laps led. Truex is already locked into the next round of the playoffs and may be able to lead until the competition caution but I think he has nowhere to go but down on Saturday.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!