🔥Written by 2020 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race🏁

There are few things in NASCAR better than short tracks or night racing, and when they are combined, the fans are in for a real treat. The playoffs' first round will end Saturday night when the Cup Series travels to Bristol Motor Speedway in Bristol, TN, for the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race. The track is a steeply banked, 0.533-mile concrete oval with two pit roads. The racing at Bristol is known to be intense, and emotions are guaranteed to be high this weekend with several bubble drivers racing to keep their championship hopes alive. Luckily, the weather forecast looks clear, so we just have to sit back and watch the carnage unfold.

On to Bristol!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 500 laps will be run, and 125 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 430 laps should run under the green flag for 193.5 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

Short track races have a ton of laps, at least 500 this weekend, producing an incredible amount of dominator points. We will need to focus on dominators this weekend if we want any chance of being profitable. Ten of the last eleven races featured at least two drivers that led 100 or more laps, and three of those races had three drivers that led that many laps. Simply leading that many laps does not guarantee a spot in the perfect lineup however, drivers must still finish well. While starting in the top 10 does help a driver's dominator potential, there have been drivers starting as far back as 24th that led a significant amount of laps. Overall we should try to roster two drivers that start in the top 10 that we think can lead a significant amount of laps and a third driver starting more towards the rear of the field that we think can win or lead laps.

Our place differential drivers will need top 10 potential if we want them to make the perfect lineup. Ideally, we will want to roster five drivers that finish in the top 10 (including our dominators). That leaves one driver that does not necessarily have to have top 10 potential, as long as they pick up 5-10 spots. Resist the urge to construct a purely stars and scrubs lineup because we are going to need five drivers finishing in the top 10 and that would be asking a ton from some lower priced drivers.

Stage 1: 125 laps, Stage 2: 125 laps, Stage 3: 250 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kyle Busch ($10,500 DK, $12,500 FD)

Busch made huge news this week, announcing that he is leaving JGR in 2023 for RCR. Hopefully that will help Kyle focus on his current situation because he is on the outside looking in on the next round of the playoffs. He starts 21st on Saturday and will need to make his way into the top 10 in a hurry if he wants to salvage his season. To his credit, Busch has a fantastic Bristol history with a top 4 finish in six of his last eight races here with a win in three of those races. Busch practiced well on Friday and it looks the all three playoff cars from JGR will be a handful to deal with on Saturday night.

Daniel Suarez($8,000 DK, $7,800 FD)

This is more of a gut play for cash. Suarez is starting 29th on Saturday and was not overly impressive in practice, but he has a great track history that I cannot ignore. Daniel had a positive place differential in six of his last seven races here, including two 8th place finishes, but I do not think that makes him a tournament worthy driver. I will be reserving Suarez for my cash games only because I do not believe he can make it into the top 10, negating his chance of making the perfect lineup. I still thing Suarez has fantastic upside for cash games, just not enough to win a tournament.

Tournament Targets

Kyle Larson ($10,800 DK, $13,500 FD)

Larson has been quiet for most of the season after being the most dominant driver of 2021, but I think he returns to victory lane on Saturday night. I was between Hamlin and Larson for the tournament dominator pick, but I have a hard time trusting Hamlin's pit crew and a pit road penalty at a short track could be catastrophic. Larson and Hamlin looked to have the best cars in practice with Hamlin running the best 5 and 10 lap average but Larson ran the best 15, 20, 25 and 30 lap average (with Hamlin not on the track). Kyle also has six top 9 finishes in his last seven races here including a win. While I think Hamlin will find his way to the front of the field eventually, I think Larson has a better chance of making the perfect lineup.

Kevin Harvick ($8,500 DK, $12,000 FD)

Harvick is racing for his season on Saturday and he is practically in a must-win situation. Kevin starts 7th on Saturday behind some very fast cars but I think he has what it takes to sneak past Hamlin/Larson. Harvick was not impressive over a single lap but he kept pace with Larson over the long run and I expect him to have a top 5 car for the entire race. While 2019 was not kind to Harvick at Bristol, he still has nine top 10 finishes in his last eleven races here including two wins and three races with more than 70 laps led. There may be better cash options this weekend but I think Harvick provides significant tournament upside.

Bargain Basement

JJ Yeley ($5,100 DK, $3,000 FD)

Yeley is practically the minimum price and is starting dead last. He was actually in the perfect lineup last race with a 27th-place finish. He has a very limited ceiling, but there is a bit of attrition at Bristol, so as long as he stays clean, he may be able to crack the top 30, and that may be enough to make the perfect lineup again this week.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Bristol that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Erik Jones ($7,900 DK, $7,500 FD)

AJ Allmendinger ($6,100 DK, $5,200 FD)

Joey Logano ($9,500 DK, $8,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Aric Almirola ($7,000 DK, $6,200 FD)

Fading the polesitter worked last week, but this new car has proven impossible to pass at short tracks. With that being said, Almirola can't get out of his own way at Bristol. He has finished 18th or worse in 7 of his last 10 races here despite his average starting position of 10.8. I can't see Almirola leading more than 30 laps, and once he loses the lead it will be all downhill from there.

Pitstop Picks

15-43 (-16.3 u)

I wrote up these two earlier in the Tournament section. They have the two best cars in the field, but I think Larson runs a cleaner race.

Short tracks and superspeedways are where Wallace excels. Bubba starts right outside the top 10 and all he will need to do is pick up a few spots to put him into contention for winning the group.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!