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LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Bass Pro Shops Night Race

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Check out the Bass Pro Shops Night Race Cheatsheet

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Bass Pro Shops Night Race🏁

Last weekend, Denny Hamlin won his fifth race of the season and secured his spot in the second round of the playoffs. Austin Dillon, Alex Bowman, SVG, and Josh Berry are currently on the chopping block when the NASCAR Cup Series travels to Bristol Motor Speedway in Bristol, TN, for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race. The track is a 0.533-mile, steeply banked concrete oval. Tire wear was a big topic of conversation during practice. Still, we saw minimal fall off in the long run, so it will be very interesting to see if there is a noticeable difference between Friday and Saturday. There are some big names on the fringe of the cut line going into the final race of round 1, and there very well may be a surprise exit or two this weekend.

We could not ask for a better forecast this weekend in Bristol. I know there are lights, but there is literally a 0% chance of rain on Saturday evening, so that is one less thing we have to worry about this weekend.

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 500 laps will be run this week, and 125 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 425 laps should run under the green flag for 191.25 possible DK points)

Finishing Position Points: The 40th-place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

1) Dominators are key. We don’t get a race longer than 500 laps, and there will never be more dominator points available than there will be on Saturday evening. The last two races have been one-dominating affairs with a driver starting in the top 3 leading more than 400 laps. In the previous races that featured more than one dominator, the top 3 were still important places to focus our attention. In fact, five of the last seven dominators started in the top 3, with the two outliers starting 8th and 19th.

2) Finishing position matters. It is tough to pass at Bristol, and track position is key. The optimal lineup for this year’s Spring race featured two drivers with negative place differential because they were cheap, but still finished in the top 11. While that is a bit of an extreme example, we have to be unafraid of rostering drivers that we think are qualified over their heads because they should be able to hold on to their positions as long as they run a clean race.

3) The basement is definitely open. A double dip cannot be ruled out. We are in a weird stretch of races that lean heavily on basement drivers. Bristol is another track where we can utilize two basement drivers if we want to take two shots at expensive dominators. That is never my favorite strategy, but it may very well be the optimal one this weekend.

Stage 1: 125 Laps

Stage 2: 125 Laps

Stage 3: 250 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Ryan Blaney ($10,700 DK, $13,000 FD): Blaney is starting second this Saturday night and he had the car to beat during practice on Friday, running the second best single laps speed and posing the best 15, 20, 25 and 30 lap averages. Ryan is arguably the hottest driver in the circuit right now, and he managed to lead 48 laps this Spring. Blaney is dialed in right now, and I expect him to be the most likely dominator this weekend.

Chris Buescher ($7,700 DK, $7,800 FD): Buescher is not in the playoffs and is not a potential dominator, but his success at Bristol cannot be ignored. He had four top 14 finishes in his last five races here, and starting 21st on Saturday, he provides significant place differential potential for a discounted price.

Kyle Busch ($8,000 DK, $6,800 FD): Kyle Busch has not been great here recently, and his car was terrible in practice. What makes him a cash play then? His starting position. Busch starts 32nd, and there are very few drivers starting in the rear of the field with top 20 potential. By no means is Busch the safest play this weekend, but he does offer one of the highest potential place differential on the slate.

Tournament Targets

Kyle Larson ($11,500 DK, $14,000 FD): Larson ran away with this race in April from his 3rd place starting position. This Saturday, he starts 5th, which adds an extra layer of difficulty, but he is the driver my model projects to end up in victory lane. Larson’s car was not exactly impressive in practice on Friday, but his history here cannot be beat with two consecutive wins and five straight top 5 finishes. I expect Blaney to lead most of the early laps, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Larson asserted his dominance at some point.

Christopher Bell ($10,200 DK, $12,500 FD): With all eyes on Blaney and Larson, I think Bell is a great pivot option. Starting 9th, Bell starts outside of our dominator window, but he is no stranger to leading laps here with over 100 laps led in two of the last five races here and three top 5 finishes in that time as well. Bell will need to lead laps to pay off his salary, making him a better tournament play than cash option.

Brad Keselowski ($7,800 DK, $8,500 FD): Like his employee/teammate Chris Buescher, Brad Keselowski is out of the playoff picture but can still provide decent place differential at a reasonable price. Kes starts 18th on Saturday and posted top 5 practice speeds on Friday. Brad has top 10 potential this weekend, and that is all he will need to make the perfect lineup.

Ryan Preece ($7,000 DK, $7,000 FD): The final member of RFK racing is the risky pick of the week. Preece excels at short flat tracks. While Bristol isn’t a flat track, Preece does have three top 14 finishes in his last four races here. Ryan starts 20th on Saturday, but ran the 10th-best 30-lap average in practice on Friday. If Preece runs a clean race, he has top 15 potential with top 10 upside.

Bargain Basement

Noah Gragson ($5,800 DK, $4,200 FD)

Gragson is not exactly a frequent flyer on the Pitstop, but he has the highest projection for the basement drivers. Noah starts 30th on Saturday and has a projected finished position of 20th. Gragson has a top finish of 12th here in his last three races and had top 10 long run speed in practice.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Bristol that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Ty Gibbs ($8,700 DK, $8,000 FD)

Chase Elliott ($9,500 DK, $11,500 FD)

Michael McDowell ($6,100 DK, $5,800 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

AJ Allmendinger ($6,600 DK, $6,000 FD)

There is a world in the multiverse where Allmendinger rolls off the pole and completely dominates on Saturday, but I sincerely believe it is not this one. We have discussed the importance of a dominator to start in the top 3, but the pole has not always been the best spot to start from. AJ could make the perfect lineup if he leads the entire first stage and finishes in the top 10, but I really cannot trust him to pull that off.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 28-40 (2.2 u)

2025 results: 24-30 (10.25 u)

This is a battle of playoff drivers who qualified worse than they would have liked. Briscoe was fast in practice but only managed to secure a 31st-place starting position. Since Bristol is such a short track, he will have to start moving in a hurry because he will be at risk of getting lapped within the first 50 laps. Reddick starts 14th and needs to run a clean race to move on in the playoffs. I honestly think he needs just to hold his track position, and he would be in a good position to win this matchup.

Kyle Busch is having one of the most forgettable seasons of his career, and I don’t foresee it getting any better on Saturday night. While I think he makes a nice DK play, a top 13 finish is going to be a stretch from his starting position of 32. I am continuing my Briscoe fade here. I hate having correlated bets because a good race out of Briscoe could ruin both, but he only finished better than 10th in two of his face races here, so I like my chances on this one.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 11-15 (+11.45 u)

2025 Results: 6-12 (-3.09 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For additional stats, check out the Bass Pro Shops Night Race Cheatsheet

Find me on Twitter. Good Luck!