LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Bass Pro Shops Night Race

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Check out the Bass Pro Shops Night Race Cheatsheet

Bass Pro Shops Night Race🏁

A last-lap pass in overtime between two non-playoff drivers is pretty much the most 2024 way last week’s race could have possibly ended. Now, Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski, Martin Truex Jr., and Harrison Burton are on the outside looking in when NASCAR travels to Bristol Motor Speedway in Bristol, TN for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race. The track is a steeply banked, 0.533-mile concrete oval known for its tight corners and high-speed racing. Not only is this the last race on a Saturday and the last night race of the season, but it is also the last race of the first round of the playoffs. The playoff field will be cut down to 12 after this weekend, and as I mentioned above, some very big names are on the verge of having their season (and, in one case, their career) ended much sooner than they anticipated.

This weekend is also the second round of DraftKing’s Fantasy Racing World Championship. While William Byron ended my hopes in round one, good luck to everyone trying to race their way to Charlotte.

There is about a 15% chance of rain in the forecast for Saturday evening. While I don’t expect any issues with weather, even if there is a small delay there shouldn’t be an issue getting the entire race in…eventually.

_{On to Bristol!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 500 laps will be run this week, and 125 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 425 laps should run under the green flag for 191.25 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

The Next-Gen car has ruined short-track racing over the last two years, so NASCAR dabbled with increased tire fall-off during the Spring Bristol race. While the drivers loved the change, only 5 drivers finished on the lead lap, and Hamlin won by more than a second (on a track with 15-second lap times). The talk of Friday was the anticipated continuation of tire wear, except practice didn’t produce the desired result. I only mention this because it will be mentioned incessantly on Saturday evening. I don’t really know how actionable the tire wear speculation is going to be because it is still incredibly hard to pass at short tracks.

With all that being said, we have 500 laps to deal with on Saturday, meaning dominators are the most important thing for us to focus on. There have been three non-dirt Bristol races in the Next Gen Era, each featuring at least two drivers leading more than 100 laps. Two of those three races had a third driver that led more than 100 laps, and seven combined drivers ended up in the perfect lineup. Unfortunately for us there is no golden starting position that produces a surefire dominator. Six of the eight dominators started in the top 10, but anecdotally, the only starting position that produced two dominators in that period is 8th. Each of the last three perfect lineups has two drivers starting in the top 11, and I think we need to focus our dominator pool on the front of the field. A fast driver can make a huge move and lead laps, but I would rather get lucky on a place differential pick than expand my dominator pool to the top 20.

Once we find two top-11 drivers that we think can dominate, our place differential drivers should come from 20th and beyond. These place differential drivers should have the potential to finish in the top 10. Be careful not to pick anyone starting too close to the rear, though, because drivers will start getting lapped very quickly, and even a decent car can get caught behind a slow car and get trapped a lap down.

I generally prefer avoiding the bargain basement at short tracks, but in a stars and scrubs build, a punt may be useful. Ideally, if we need a basement driver, they should have top-15 potential, but any type of positive place differential should be serviceable.

Stage 1: 125 Laps

Stage 2: 125 Laps

Stage 3: 250 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kyle Larson ($10,500 DK, $13,500 FD)

Larson was by foundational target last weekend, and the only way I could describe his performance was blah. This weekend, he is starting second and boasts the second-best average finish at Bristol in the Next Gen Era. Kyle also has the fourth-best average finish on similar tracks in the last two seasons. In practice, Larson had the best car in the top 5, posting the third-best single lap speed and fastest 25 and 30 laps averages. Larson will have his hands full trying to pass Bowman for the lead, but if he can get by Alex, Kyle should be able to lead at least the entire first stage, and I expect him to be a threat for the win.

Brad Keselowski ($9,500 DK, $12,500 FD)

This is shaping up to be a Stars and Scrubs type of slate. The best dominator and place differential options are all high-priced drivers, and that will make this a very interesting evening. Keselowski needs a good finish to keep his season alive, and from his 23rd place starting position, all that means is place differential potential. I think most people will find themselves choosing between Blaney and Kes this weekend. Blaney is cheaper, starting one spot ahead of Kes, and had the much faster car in practice. The reason I liked Brad this weekend was his track history. Keselowski has an average finish of 8th over his last three Bristol races with an average positive place differential of 3 while Blaney has an average finish of 22.67 with negative place differential of -16.67 spots.

Tournament Targets

Denny Hamlin ($11,000 DK, $14,000 FD)

Hamlin’s season is on the line this Saturday at arguably one of his best tracks. I generally try to avoid so many high-priced drivers, and Denny is the highest-priced on both sites this weekend, but my model loves him. Hamlin starts 8th on Sunday and needs a top 5 finish to keep his championship hopes alive. Denny has led over 100 laps and won each of the last two races here, but that was from a top 3 starting position. The practice was not kind to Hamlin, and I prefer Larson in cash games, but if Denny can find his way to the front of the field, I don’t think any driver will be able to get by him.

Austin Cindric ($7,200 DK, $5,500 FD)

This is almost entirely wishful thinking, but sometimes we need it in tournaments. To almost everyone’s surprise, Cindric is currently second in the point standings and has been on a solid hot streak. He has his work cut out for him on Saturday, however, from his 27th place starting position. Austin practiced well on Friday, running the 19th fastest single lap speed and the top seven 10, 15, 20, 25, and 30 lap averages. While his track history and correlated track history is brutal, my model still has a ceiling finish of 11th for Cindric, which would be more than enough to land him in the perfect lineup.

Bargain Basement

Todd Gilliland ($5,800 DK, $3,800 FD)

Gilliland has come back down to earth since his top 15 streak was snapped but I like him to rebound this weekend. He starts 24th on Saturday and ran inside the top 16 in practice. This is not his best track but an average finish of 20th is promising and he only needs a top 16 finish to hit value.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Bristol that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Ty Gibbs ($8,700 DK, $12,000 FD)

Josh Berry ($8,200 DK, $7,500 FD)

Erik Jones ($6,200 DK, $5,200 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Carson Hocevar ($6,700 DK, $6,500 FD)

Hocevar practiced decently well, and his average finish at Bristol is respectable, but his 7th-place starting position brings way too much downside to the table. Any finishing outside the top 8 will prevent Carson from hitting value, and considering how many good drivers are starting behind him, I can’t bring myself to click on his name.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 23-29 (7.3 u)

My crazy long shot bets last week paid for for the first time since I started doing this, and I think we may be on to something (for road races at least). At first glance, there is no reason to bet on Reddick in this matchup, but my model predicts him to have a better finish (7 vs. 9) and average finish position (7.5 vs. 9.38). The main difference is Reddick’s success at correlated tracks, and we are hoping that translates to this race.

Top 5 and 10 bets have never been kind to me, but the lines for this race are rough. Buescher has a top-5 finish in two of the three Next Gen races, and all of them came with a positive place differential of 16 or more. Buescher made a statement with his win last week, and I am looking for him to continue to show his frustration with missing the playoffs.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 11-14 (+12.45 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For comments on every driver and additional stats, check out the Bass Pro Shops Night Race cheatsheet

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