LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Bank of America ROVAL 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Check out the Bank of America ROVAL 400 Cheatsheet

Bank of America ROVAL 400🏁

Last-second heroics propelled Chase Elliott to victory lane in Kansas, spoiling a dominant performance by Denny Hamlin in his quest for 60 career wins. Ross Chastain, Bubba Wallace, Tyler Reddick, and Austin Cindric are the four drivers below the cut line as the NASCAR Cup Series travels to the Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course in Concord, NC, for the Bank of America ROVAL 400. The ROVAL is a 17-turn, 2.32-mile road course that encompasses both the Charlotte oval and the infield, blending oval and road racing.

Since this is a road course, Goodyear will provide rain tires for this race, but they should not be necessary.. Temperatures are expected to be in the 80s, with a 20% chance of rain. This is yet another beautiful weekend for racing.

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 109 laps will be run this week, and 27.25 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 99 laps should run under the green flag for 44.55 possible DK points)

Finishing Position Points: The 40th-place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

1) Track position is king. A driver starting worse than 20th has not made either of the last two perfect lineups. The 2021 race was messy and featured the old rules package, so let’s disregard that. 2022 was relatively similar to previous years, with one notable exception in Almirola. Overall, we should focus our lineups on drivers starting in the top 20s that can finish in the top 10. If you want to take a swing on one massive place differential play, that is ok, but let's front-load these lineups.

2) There will be a dominator, but he will not post a massive score. Sure, the winning car will likely lead a decent number of laps, but only 109 laps will be run. Pit strategy could become unpredictable, so that dominator points might be spread out. Considering three of the top 5 drivers are out of the playoffs, they should all be on the optimal race-winning strategy, forgoing stage points for a chance at the checkered flag.

3) Steer clear of the basement on Sunday. Punts starting in the rear will stay in the rear. There are two basement drivers starting in the top 20, and you can play them at your own risk. As always, one punt won’t kill you in cash, but they will most likely not help us take down a tournament this weekend.

Stage 1: 25 Laps

Stage 2: 25 Laps

Stage 3: 59 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

AJ Allmendinger ($9,000 DK, $9,000 FD): Allmendinger has always been known as a road ringer and I enjoy fading him in these situations but the ROVAL has turned into his best track over the last few years. His car was crazy fast in practice, and he hasn’t finished worse than 6th in his last three races here. Dinger starts 9th, which provides plenty of place differential and race-winning upside.

Christopher Bell ($10,200 DK, $13,000 FD): Bell is arguably the second-best driver at the ROVAL behind Allmendinger. Christopher has a win, a second-place finish, and a 15th (sad face) here. He starts 7th on Sunday and isn’t locked into the next round just yet; he needs a solid finish to keep his season alive.

Kyle Larson ($10,500 DK, $12,500 FD): Larson starts 4th on Sunday and joins Reddick as the only two playoff drivers starting in the top 5. My model loves Larson, so much so that it projects him to finish 0 (even better than the highest possible finishing position). While that is a mathematical quirk, the point still stands. Larson is a fantastic option on Sunday, and we get him at a relative discount.

Tournament Targets

Shane Van Gisbergen ($12,500 DK, $14,500 FD): SVG is expensive and starting second, so he HAS to dominate to make the perfect lineup. Unfortunately for the rest of the field, that is exactly what he has done at every road course this season. I am done fading SVG for the season, despite this being his worst road race on the circuit. I think we could actually build a better lineup without him in cash, but for the tournament, SVG absolutely has to be in the driver pool.

Joey Logano ($7,500 DK, $6,500 FD): Logano provides serious salary relieve and provides (relatively) massive place differential potential from his 17th place starting position. Logano has two straight top 8 finishes here, but a limited place differential, and he wasn’t impressive in practice. Overall, I like Logano as a solid tournament option, but I may steer clear of him in cash.

Kyle Busch ($7,700 DK, $7,000 FD): Despite having the worst couple of years of his career, somehow Busch always shows up to the ROVAL. Kyle’s last three finishes here are 3rd, 3rd, and 13th, and he starts 28th on Sunday, which gives him the highest realistic potential place differential. While he begins outside our top 20 comfort zone, Busch is precisely the type of driver we will want to take a chance on in tournaments.

Austin Cindric ($7,400 DK, $8,000 FD): Cindric is racing for his season on Sunday and has his work cut out for him. Starting 19th, Cindric is almost in a must-win situation, which makes him a very intriguing option this weekend. Austin finished 4th last season at the ROVAL and ran the best 5-lap average in practice on Saturday. There are several drivers in this price range that have their pros and cons, and that is where this slate will be won.

Bargain Basement

Austin Dillon ($5,400 DK, $4,000 FD)

Dillon has not been having the best season, but this is still absurdly cheap for him. Starting 36th, I think Austin will actually go under the radar, considering his average finish here of 19th and average finish at correlated tracks of 28th. Dillon has finished 10th, 14th, and 33rd in his last three races here, and anything in the top 15 should land him in the perfect lineup.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like at the ROVAL that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Carson Hocevar ($7,000 DK, $7,200 FD)

Alex Bowman ($7,800 DK, $7,500 FD)

Bubba Wallace ($6,700 DK, $5,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Ty Gibbs ($8,300 DK, $10,000 FD)

Gibbs is still looking for career win numero uno and is in a prime position to get it on Sunday. Unfortunately for Ty, he is not at his best track, and there are some very good road racers starting all around him. Quirky tracks are always prone to surprise winners, but this is a playoff elimination race, so everyone’s gloves will be off.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 28-40 (2.2 u)

2025 results: 26-34 (8.95 u)

Michael McDowell starts 6th on Sunday and has a top finish of 15th in his last three races here. His problems weren’t in qualifying; however, he had two races with more than 15 spots lost during the race. Chastain, on the other hand, has a top finish of 10th and two poor results, but he qualified outside the top 10 in each of those races. I expect this to be another race where McDowell qualifies well and falls back, and I am looking for Chastain to at least hold on to his 10th-place starting position.

I usually like to use these picks as fades, but the market is rough this weekend. The two softest options I found for Sunday are actually bullish. Byron starts 13th and is coming off two straight top 3 finishes at the ROVAL. He should be a shoo-in for a top 10 finish, and we can trust he will be on the optimal pit strategy because he is not locked in to the next round on points yet. As discussed earlier, Logano starts 17th and is loaded with place differential. He only needs to finish 13th to hit this over without any fastest laps or laps led. A clean race should get this bet done, but any issues could end our and each driver’s season.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (+2.85 u)

2024 Results: 11-15 (+11.45 u)

2025 Results: 7-12 (-1.09 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For additional stats, check out the Bank of America ROVAL 400 Cheatsheet

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