LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Bank of America ROVAL 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Check out the Bank of America ROVAL 400 Cheatsheet

Bank of America ROVAL 400🏁

This has been one of the wildest playoffs in recent memory. Over the first 5 races, non-playoff drivers have won 3 races, but their postseason counterparts have only won 2 races. This leaves us with a very interesting scenario this weekend when the NASCAR Cup Series travels to the Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course in Concord, NC, for the Bank of America ROVAL 400. The track is a 2.28-mile, 17-turn road/oval hybrid that uses a significant portion of the Charlotte Oval as well as most of the track’s infield. In recent years, there were as many as three unique Rovals on the circuit, but we are down to just one this season, so we will have to use data from the other road races, which doesn’t translate well for some drivers. This is the final race in the round of 12, and only William Byron is locked in for the next round, so tensions will be high on Sunday when eleven drivers potentially have their season on the line.

Sunday will be another perfect day for racing. Temperatures approaching 80 and no chance of rain mean there shouldn’t be any trouble completing the race.

_{On to the ROVAL!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 109 laps will be run this week, and 27.25 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 95 laps should run under the green flag for 42.75 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

Track position is king at road races, even at the ROVAL. There are an incredibly low number of dominator points available, and it is generally difficult to pass at this track type, so we will need to focus on drivers that start up front and can stay there. An added fun wrinkle is the reintroduction of stage breaks this year. In one road race this season, teams decided to short pit the stage to set themselves up for the next stage, at Watkins Glen more drivers stayed on the same strategy so the field didn’t really get shuffled at the breaks. I’d imagine we see a split strategy between the playoff drivers on Sunday because some drivers may be able to advance via stage points, and they will want to bank them right away, while others will need a win to advance, so they will have to play the long game. If that wasn’t enough to consider, two of the drivers starting in the top 3 (Allmendinger and SVG) are both among the favorites to win the race, and they are non-playoff drivers. When creating lineups this weekend, we really will have to come up with a narrative about how we think the race will play out and influence our decision-making.

During the two ROVAL races using the next-gen car, only one driver starting worse than 22nd made the perfect lineup, further reiterating the need to front-load our lineups. Oddly enough, however, only two drivers starting in the top 10 have made each perfect lineup. This means we will need to focus heavily on the 11-22 range because at least one of our lineups will start there.

I would avoid the top five despite the heavy hitters starting up there. The utter lack of upside and potential for catastrophe make these drivers not worth the salary or the heartache. To that point, only one top-five driver has made the perfect lineup since 2020.

The bargain basement is off-limits in tournaments. These drivers have no chance of scoring enough points to benefit from any tournament. One punt could be considered in cash, but salaries are slightly flattened this weekend, so we may not even need to dip down there.

Stage 1: 25 Laps

Stage 2: 25 Laps

Stage 3: 59 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Chris Buescher ($9,100 DK, $10,500 FD)

Buescher won at the most recent road course (Watkins Glen) and is on a revenge tour after missing the playoffs by a hair. Chris wants to make the good times continue from his 29th-place starting position this Sunday. While that is outside of our target starting zone by a considerable margin, I expect Chris to employ any strategy to get him to the front by the end of the race because stage points mean nothing to him. I am less worried about Buescher being able to pass here because he has an average positive place differential of 14 over the last two races here and an average positive place differential of 13.7 at road tracks over the last two seasons. In short, Buescher is used to qualifying poorly and racing towards the front, and that is exactly what I am banking on him doing again.

Alex Bowman ($8,100 DK, $8,500 FD)

Bowman is an underrated road racer and starts 17th on Sunday. Although I do not account for his win at Chicago in my model, we should keep it in the back of our mind. He has one next-gen race here, where he finished 8th with a positive place differential of 8, and over the last two years, he has an average finish at road courses of 9.29. Bowman’s practice times weren’t stellar on Saturday, but I think he is a safe playoff driver that we can trust in cash.

Tournament Targets

Christopher Bell ($9,000 DK, $10,000 FD)

Bell is a former ROVAL winner and starts 12th on Sunday. His practice speeds were not impressive by any stretch, but his road racing acumen is what draws me to him this weekend. There is a very good chance that Christopher goes overlooking this weekend, with the road specialists starting towards the front and some big names starting right around him. A proven history and potential for low ownership make Bell a fantastic tournament play.

Kyle Busch ($8,300 DK, $9,500 FD)

Busch is starting one spot ahead of Bell (11th) and could be a fantastic high-risk pivot. The only thing Kyle cares about this weekend is a W because he is rapidly running out of opportunities to extend his 20-year win streak. Busch has finished third in each of the last two ROVAL races, but that will not be an acceptable result this Sunday. Kyle is going to risk it all to bring home the checkered flag before the end of the season, and I like his chances to do it at Charlotte.

Bargain Basement

Erik Jones ($6,000 DK, $3,000 FD)

Picking Jones is kinda cheating because he is at the high end of the range, but man, is the bargain basement rough this weekend. Jones starts 37th on Sunday and literally can’t score negative points. While this is a relatively low attrition race, he should be able to sneak into the top 30 by just running a safe race. He finished 11 in 2022, which will be way beyond his capabilities this weekend, but that should provide enough hope for us to take a chance on him in some tournaments.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like at the ROVAL that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Chase Elliott ($9,500 DK, $12,500 FD)

Martin Truex Jr ($8,000 DK, $7,500 FD)

Ross Chastain ($8,800 DK, $8,200 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Shane Van Gisbergen ($10,300 DK, $14,000 FD)

Call me a hater all you want, but I refuse to roster SVG for a road course. He has proven on more than one occasion that the hype is real, but I hate to roster relative unknowns at high ownership. The driver starting on the pole hasn’t made the perfect lineup since 2019, and I am not willing to bet that will change on Sunday.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 26-32 (7.5 u)

This is not a plus money H2H on DK but it is on MGM, just to highlight how important it is to shop your bets. Bell and Byron are both very good road racers and they have similar finishing positions over the last two races (Bell- 1,15 and Byron- 16,2). Bell still has some work to do to make sure he advances in the playoffs so I’ll give him the nod.

Chevy’s are heavily favored on Sunday. They manufacture the rides of SVG, Allmendinger, Byron, Larson and Elliott, who account for 5 of the 6 drivers with the shortest odds to win the race. While I don’t particularly like any drivers outside that group to win, this is still NASCAR and anything can happen. Not the most technical analysis but I can’t pass up these odds.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 11-14 (+12.45 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For comments on every driver and additional stats, check out the Bank of America ROVAL 400 cheatsheet

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