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LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Bank of America ROVAL 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS and 2023(x3) FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Bank of America ROVAL 400🏁

Two playoff drivers have already punched their tickets to the next round of the playoffs. Who will survive the last race of round 2? The most diverse round of the playoffs concludes this Sunday when the NASCAR Cup Series travels to the Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course in Concord, NC, for the Bank of America ROVAL. The track is a 2.28 mile, 17-turn, hybrid that utilizes parts of the traditional Charlotte oval and the infield. There are rumors that this may be the last race at the Charlotte ROVAL for a while so make sure to savor this race as much as you can.

NASCAR gets another picture perfect weekend weatherwise. Temperatures should be in the mid 60s with zero chance of rain. The race should go off without a peep from Mother Nature.

_{On to The ROVAL!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 109 laps will be run this week, and 27.25 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 94 laps should run under the green flag for 42.3 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

The Roval is its own type of animal. To this day, some drivers, who are generally good road racers, cannot figure out what to do with Charlotte’s Road Course. Luckily for us, our overall approach to the Roval should be similar to other road courses. Dominator points are exceedingly limited at this track type, and track position is of utmost importance throughout the race. This is the only road course this season where cautions will be thrown at stage breaks, affecting our dominator projections immensely. During the previous road races this season, the best car was able to stay out front because it was nearly impossible to pass, and caution was only thrown for on-track incidents. On Sunday, this will not be the case. For those of you familiar with the strategy from last year, drivers will short pit before the end of the stage in order to gain track position for the following stage. This means the drivers in the 11-15 position will most likely pit before the end of stages 1 and 2 if they don’t think they will be able to get stage points in the hopes of starting the following stage in the front of the field by “passing” all of the drivers who stay out and pit during the stage break. This effectively caps the number of laps a car can realistically lead because there will always be a handful of cars willing to use this strategy to get to the front of the field.

Armed with that knowledge, we will want to forgo rostering any dominators. Instead, we want to prioritize drivers that we think will finish in the top 10. Ideally, we will want roster 6 drivers with top 10 potential, but realistically, we should aim for 5 drivers that can finish in the top 10 and a punt. That does not mean we abandon all drivers starting in the front of the field. To the contrary, we should roster at least 2 drivers starting in the top 10, but we shouldn’t expect them to lead laps. Passing is still very hard here, so these will be drivers who are starting well and could pick up some spots on their way to a nice finish. If these drivers happen to lead a few laps, great, but that should be a bonus not an expectation.

I would try to avoid the bargain basement in tournaments if possible. There have been three drivers priced $6000 or less that have made the five ROVAL perfect lineups. Two of those drivers were good road racers offered at a price discount. In cash, one punt is perfectly fine but if we want to take down a big tournament we need to limit it to one low priced driver with top 15 potential.

Stage 1: 25 Laps

Stage 2: 25 Laps

Stage 3: 59 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kyle Larson ($10,300 DK, $12,500 FD)

Larson is one of those drivers who is great at road courses but has not quite figured out the ROVAL. Yes, I am aware he won here in 2021, but he posted a negative place differential in his other three starts, including a 35th place finish last season. He put up respectable speeds during practice, but an accident in qualifying relegates him to a backup car and a 36th place starting position. This makes Kyle an incredibly good cash target and most likely the highest owned driver in the field. Larson is one of two drivers who are guaranteed a spot in the next round of the playoffs, but that shouldn’t stop him from trying to come home from Charlotte with another trophy.

Chris Buescher ($8,800 DK, $9,000 FD)

Buescher starts 20th on Sunday, and he NEEDS a solid run on Sunday to advance to the round of 8. He has been an incredible solid road racer this season, with an average finish of 7.5 with an average positive place differential of 9.75. His last two races at the ROVAL have also been very encouraging, two top 6 finishes with an average positive place differential of 14. While his single lap speed wasn’t the best during practice on Saturday, he ran the 9th best 5 lap average. Overall, I think Buescher can go overlooked due to his price and starting position, but he is one driver I will be building my lineups around on Sunday.

Tournament Targets

Kyle Busch ($9,300 DK, $10,000 FD)

Kyle Busch is another driver that couldn’t figure out the ROVAL at first, but his last two races have given me hope. Busch is in a must win situation on Sunday, and that is all that will be on his mind from his 5th place starting position. While I DO NOT EXPECT HIM TO BE A DOMINATOR, his focus will solely be taking the checkered flag. He is a savvy enough driver to know that winning stage 1 or 2 will not be enough to get him into the round of 8. Rowdy’s back is up against the wall this weekend, and I expect him to pull out all of the stops to keep his season alive.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($6,500 DK, $4,500 FD)

Qualifying poorly and sneaking into the top 20 is sort of Stenhouse Jr’s specialty at the ROVAL, and I am looking to capitalize on it this Sunday. Ricky starts 27th on Sunday and has an average finish of 18.5 over his last four races here. While he does not have the top 10 potential we are looking for, he can serve as our low priced driver as long as we don’t dip any lower. His average finish of 14.25 at similar tracks this season, with an average positive place differential of 9 in exactly what we are looking for. He pretty much needs to hit his ceiling for tournament viability, which makes him inherently risky.

Bargain Basement

Ty Dillon ($4,900 DK, $2,500 FD)

Dillon is starting last and the second cheapest driver on the slate. This is not a tournament-winning play because he has a very low ceiling. I could see him making it out of the 30s, which would make him a decent option in cash, but he will not have the ceiling we want to take down a tournament.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like at the ROVAL that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Alex Bowman ($7,700 DK, $7,500 FD)

Austin Cindric ($7,500 DK, $6,800 FD)

Martin Truex Jr ($9,800 DK, $11,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Daniel Suarez ($8,500 DK, $8,000 FD)

Suarez starts third, but his top finish at the ROVAL is 13th. That is the only top 20 finish Suarez has here. His record at road tracks this season isn’t any better, with an average finish of 18.5 with an average negative place differential of 11.25. Daniel is out of the playoffs and over his head starting this far forward on Sunday.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 13-42 (-17.75 u)

I have come up a spot short on each of the last top 5 and top 10 bets I have made, but I love Bell’s chances to finish well here this weekend. He starts 2nd and should be able to hang around the front all race. The former ROVAL winner has always been known as a good road racer and should continue that trend on Sunday.

Reddick, Wallace, Bell, Truex and Hamlin are all starting in the top 15 and will be gunning for a win. They are all formidable road racers and in prime position to take the checkered flag. The top Chevy to worry about is Busch, but there is a steep fall off past him and I like the Toyota’s chances especially at plus money.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Bank of America ROVAL 400 and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!