🔥Written by 2020 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Bank of America Roval 400 🏁

The final race of this playoff segment will be this Sunday afternoon as NASCAR travels to the Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course in Concord, NC for the Bank of America Roval 400. The track is a 2.28 mile, 17 turn road course that incorporates portions of the traditional Charlotte oval and its infield. The course also features 35 feet of elevation changes and a ton of excitement. A non-playoff driver won at Talladega (Bubba Wallace), therefore there is still only one driver locked into the round of 8 which means about a third of the field will be racing with the season on the line.

On to the Roval!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 109 laps will be run this and 27.25 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 90 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 40.5 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

This is the seventh road race of the season, so we should have a general idea of the game plan for this slate. There will be very few laps run on Sunday (109) so dominators will not be the most important piece to the puzzle this week. At road courses, we like to prioritize finishing positions above all else. Every driver in the last three perfect lineups has finished 17th or better. Last year was a bit of an anomaly with only one driver starting in the top 10 making the perfect lineup but it was also the first time the race followed Talladega and used the qualifying algorithm....in easier terms to understand- better drivers started deeper in the field (like this race). Overall I expect the trend of top 17 finishers continue, pretty much nullifying about 10 drivers right off the bat, and I still think dominator points will actually be the third most important variable behind finishing position and place differential. The best way to visualize the point I am trying to make is to consider this scenario: Denny Hamlin ($9,500 starting 1st), Alex Bowman ($8,900 starting 12th) and Ross Chastain ($9,300 starting 27th) are all priced within $600 this weekend on DK. If Hamlin were to lead 40 laps but finish 5th, he would only score 45 DK pts plus fastest laps. If Chastain were to pick up an impressive 15 spots and finish 12th, he would score 46 DK pts plus fastest laps. Bowman, however, is starting 12th and would only need to move up 7 spots to 5th to score 46 DK pts. While you may have certain feelings about one driver or another in that specific scenario, I wanted to illustrate how three drivers at similar price points and starting in different areas of the field would need to perform to outscore the others.

Stage 1: 25 laps, Stage 2: 25 laps, Stage 3: 59 laps

Competition Caution: Lap 10

Lineup Foundation Targets

Chase Elliott ($10,700 DK, $14,500 FD)

It has been the Elliott/Larson show this entire season at road courses at I think Elliott is the preferred play on Sunday. Chase starts 8th on Sunday and has won each of the last two races at the Roval. He also has two wins and another two 2nd place finishes this season at road courses. Elliott is a different type of animal when right hand turns are involved and he has consistently proven his ability to run through the field at these tracks with wins this season from the 8th and 34th starting position. Elliott is slightly more expensive and starting two places further forward than Larson so I am also hoping to scoop him up at a discounted ownership.

Tyler Reddick ($7,800 DK, $9,000 FD)

Reddick is the beneficiary of some Talladega troubles and gets a juicy starting position of 29th on Sunday. Tyler has three top 10 finishes at road courses this season and finished 12 here in his only Cup race at the Roval. Reddick is relatively cheap and will only need a top 15 finish this weekend to have a chance at the perfect lineup.

Tournament Targets

Kurt Busch ($8,700 DK, $10,500 FD)

It feels weird not recommending a tournament dominator in this spot but this will be a different type of race. The elder Busch is starting 13th on Sunday and is poised to make a run deep into the top 10. Kurt has a top 5 in two of the three Roval races and has four top 6 finishes this season at road races (all with positive place differential). While I highlighted Bowman in my earlier example and believe they are both fantastic options on Sunday, I prefer the discount and starting position that Busch brings to the table.

Chase Briscoe ($7,600 DK, $9,200 FD)

Briscoe is having himself a very underrated year on road courses and is starting 22nd on Sunday. While he has not run a Cup race at the Roval, he does have a win in the inaugural Roval race in the Xfinity series. To add to that, Briscoe has four top 17 finishes this season at road courses, including three top 9s. Chase is more expensive than he usually is this weekend but I think he has a very good chance to pay off his salary and then some this weekend.

Cole Custer ($5,700 DK, $7,100 FD)

OK, I admit it, this is a weird newsletter this week. Custer is usually a driver we see in the risky pick of the week and we never see someone this cheap here, but overall I feel like he could be an import piece to a winning lineup on Sunday. Custer starts 23rd on Sunday and has an average finish of 21.5 at road courses this year. What really has me intrigued is his 9th place finish at the Roval last Fall and his 13th at the Daytona road course this Spring. Due to his low price, Custer only needs to hit the magic finishing position of 17th so hit value and a top 13 would all but guarantee a spot in the perfect lineup.

Bargain Basement

Bubba Wallace ($5,300 DK, $5,000 FD)

I am not going to suggest playing Wallace in cash because a fumble from his starting position of 15th could be catastrophic. I will, however, point out that Wallace can hit 5x value by losing 1 spot and if he manages to sneak into a top 10 he would almost certainly be in the perfect lineup. While I don't want to bank of a second consecutive career-best finish for Wallace, his 13th and 14th place finish this season at road courses indicates he can at least hold his ground and possibly pick up a spot or two.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at the Roval that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

AJ Allmendinger ($11,200 DK, $12,000 FD)

Ryan Preece ($6,000 DK, $5,500 FD)

Matt DiBendetto ($7,900 DK, $8,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Kyle Busch ($9,900 DK, $12,500 FD)

I am running it back with the Kyle Busch fade this weekend. I wish I enjoyed anything in life as much as Kyle enjoys running into trouble at the Roval (and any roval for that matter). Busch has finishes of 30th, 37th, and 32nd in his three Charlotte Roval races as well as a 35th and 37th at the Daytona Roval. Kyle is too good of a driver to run this poorly for this many consecutive races, so a true game theory play would be going overweight on Busch this Sunday but that is a little too galaxy brain for me.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Bank of America Roval 400 cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!