🔥Written by 2020 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Bank of America ROVAL 400🏁

The final race in the round of 12 will take place this Sunday when NASCAR travels to the Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course in Concord, NC for the Bank of America ROVAL 400. The ROVAL is a 17 turn, 2.28 mile, hybrid track that utilizes part of the traditional oval and most of the infield. True to its name, the ROVAL does not race like a traditional road course or a traditional oval, but road racers have been fairly successful here. Weather should not be an issue on Sunday and they have rain tires, so they should be able to complete the entire race.

On to the ROVAL!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 109 laps will be run, and 27.25 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 91 laps should run under the green flag for 40.95 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

Road courses have been very difficult to pass on, and ovals have been very hard on tires this season, leaving us in a tough spot. The best way to attack this race is to prioritize finishing position. We want to narrow our player pool down to drivers that can finish in the top 10, regardless of starting position. Dominators aren't really a thing at the ROVAL, the highest number of laps led a driver has had in the perfect lineup is 35 and that is the only time the driver that led the most laps in the race made the perfect lineup. Instead, we want to find a driver we believe can win the race and build around him. Once we find our race winner, we need to find between two and four drivers that can finish in the top 10. Our last driver doesn't need to have top 10 potential, but they do need to finish well. The lowest finishing position of any driver in the perfect lineup was 17th. ROVAL races average 9 cautions per race, but there is still relatively low attrition and only one bargain basement driver making the perfect lineup in four races. While drivers starting in the rear will pick up spots by simply surviving the race, they will still need to run a good race to score well enough to make the perfect lineup.

Stage 1: 25 laps, Stage 2: 25 laps, Stage 3: 59 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Ryan Blaney($9,700 DK, $12,000 FD)

Blaney is not my traditional cash game pick due to his 6th place starting position, but he checks all of the boxes we are looking for at the ROVAL. Ryan has never finished outside the top 10 here and even won the inaugural race. While we don't want to chase laps led, Blaney has led more than 10 laps in three of the four races here, and it wouldn't surprise me if he found his way up front at some point on Sunday too. Ryan isn't guaranteed a spot in the next round of the playoffs just yet but could get there with stage points so one concern is that his pit strategy way be suboptimal in the long run but that may push us into overthinking territory. Blaney has a fantastic chance to finish in the top 10 and has race winning upside which is exactly what we are looking for this Sunday.

Kevin Harvick ($7,900 DK, $8,300 FD)

I promise I try not to go outside the box for cash plays, but Harvick is very intriguing this weekend. He practiced terribly and qualified 22nd but is more or less par for the course this season at road courses for him. He has four top 12 finishes and at a positive place differential of at least 7 in four of five road races this season. Kevin also finished in the top 11 in the three ROVAL races he finished. Harvick isn't the first person that comes to mind when thinking about road racing prowess, but his success this season suggests he could be a solid cash option.

Tournament Targets

Chase Elliott ($10,600 DK, $14,000 FD)

Elliott is the most expensive driver of the slate on both sites and only starts 9th, so he didn't make the cut as a lineup foundation driver. He is the odds on favorite to win the race, however, so we can't pass on his upside in tournaments. Chase has won two of the four ROVAL races and has three top 4 finishes at road courses this season. Elliott will be the highest-owned driver, for a good reason, and I don't think we can risk fading him at a track where he has been so successful.

Cole Custer ($6,700 DK, $6,000 FD)

Custer fills a very specific need in our ideal lineup build. He starts 12th on Sunday and has legitimate top 10 upside, a very rare combination. Cole had the 6th best single lap speed and 5th best 5 lap average in practice on Saturday. He had two top 11 finishes in road races this season and finished 9th at the ROVAL in 2020. As long as Custer runs a clean race, he has a chance to sneak into the top 10, which would all but guarantee his spot in the perfect lineup.

Bargain Basement

Todd Gilliland ($5,700 DK, $4,800 FD)

Fading this entire price range wouldn't be the worst move in tournaments but for cash games, I will be turning to Gilliland. Although he has never run the ROVAL, Todd has shown serious upside at road course this season with two top 20 finishes including a 4th place finish at the Indy Road Course. Gilliland starts 32nd on Sunday and while I don't expect lightning to strike twice this season he should be able to sneak into the top 25 and has top 20 upside.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at the ROVAL that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Erik Jones ($7,400 DK, $6,500 FD)

Austin Cindric ($8,600 DK, $9,500 FD)

Brad Keselowski ($7,000 DK, $6,700 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Joey Logano ($9,600 DK, $10,500 FD)

Logano starts on the pole on Sunday and showed some serious speed on Saturday, but there are simply not enough dominator points available for him to make the perfect lineup. There is almost zero chance he runs away with the race, and he will end up shuffled into the middle of the pack in the second stage due to pit strategy. The only way Logano makes the perfect lineup is if he wins the race and I am not willing to bet on that in any form.

Pitstop Picks

16-48 (-20.3 u)

This is a trust the model bet. Cindric is projected to win in my most accurate model, and he has the best average projected finish in all of my models. I don't trust him in DFS due to his 5th place starting position but he does make a solid group bet.

Bell is very good at road tracks and he has a top 10 starting position. Bell should win this bet easily if it is as difficult to pass as it has been all season. Chastain hasn't been the same recently and will be starting in the rear and Hamlin is starting too far back too worry about. As long as Bell stays clean it should be smooth sailing.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Bank of America ROVAL 400 cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!