🔥Written by 2020 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 500🏁

Last weekend, NASCAR wrapped up a historic first round of the playoffs when a third non-playoff driver (Chris Buescher) won the final race of the first round. The surviving twelve drivers are looking to have a smoother second round of the playoffs when they travel to Texas Motor Speedway in Fort Worth, TX for the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 on Sunday. The track is a 1.5 mile variably banked quad-oval. The new car has livened up these cookie-cutter tracks this season, producing several unpredictable results so far and I don't expect this race to be any different.

On to Texas!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 334 laps will be run, and 83.5 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 284 laps should run under the green flag for 127.8 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

Instead of 500 laps like last weekend, Sunday we are getting 500 miles which is still a long race and should still produce a significant amount of dominator points. Even with the extra 67 laps, races at Texas generally only have one driver that leads more than 100 laps, and I would expect that to even be in question this weekend. We have seen drivers from all over the field lead portions of 1.5 mile races this season and historical track trends don't always hold up. I expect two to three drivers to lead 60 or more laps this weekend, spreading the dominator points around a little bit. I would still focus on rostering at least 2 top 10 drivers we think can lead laps or win. Historically one of the two drivers on the front row dominated and made the perfect lineup, and that trend has somewhat held up at similar tracks this season. While I don't think either front row driver with be the major dominator, in all but one intermediate track this season a front row driver has led at least some laps and finished well enough to make the perfect lineup. I think there is a chance both drivers could go overlooked and that may be a mistake on Sunday.

Once we get our dominators sorted out, we will need to fill out the rest of the lineup. Texas is not kind to bargain basement drivers and they should be reserved for our one dominator builds. The perfect lineup will have between four and six top 10 finishers in it so almost every driver we roster will need to have top 10 potential. For lower priced drivers we can sacrifice some ceiling but they should still have top 15 potential with positive place differential.

Stage 1: 105 laps, Stage 2: 105 laps, Stage 3: 124 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Christopher Bell ($10,300 DK, $12,500 FD)

Bell does not get much love in this newsletter because he always seems to qualify and finish well but lacks dominator potential. This weekend, Bell qualified 22nd but has been one of the best JGR cars this season at intermediate tracks with finishes of 10th (Vegas), 5th (Kansas 1) and 3rd (Kansas 2). Chris ran a slow single lap speed in practice but he had a top 15 five lap average and I think he can improve on that throughout the race. Bell is not a dominator by any means but he should be a solid cash place differential option.

Erik Jones ($8,000 DK, $7,500 FD)

Jones is priced up this weekend due to his track history, but I still love him as a cash option considering his 27th place starting position. Erik has struggled at intermediate tracks this season but that is mostly due to tire issues. He generally runs well until his race comes to a sudden end which is why there is a major discrepancy between his average running positions and finishes at similar tracks. While I prefer less incident prone drivers in my cash teams (especially at this price), Jones' 5th best single lap speed and 10th best five lap average during practice makes we want to believe his bad luck is running out.

Tournament Targets

Joey Logano ($8,900 DK, $9,000 FD)

Logano is starting on the front row on Sunday (2nd) and is one of the most consistent drivers at Texas. He has eight top 7 finishes in his last eleven races here, with at least 22 laps led in four. Joey did not post a great single lap speed (it was better than the pole sitter Keselowski's) but showed some long-run speed with the best 5 and 10 lap averages in practice on Saturday. Logano is cheap enough that he will only need to lead about 40 laps and finish in the top 4 for a chance at the perfect lineup. He continues to show up to races with fast practice cars that tail off as the race develops which may lower his overall ownership. I am banking on Logano turning in a complete race and landing himself a spot in the perfect lineup.

Bubba Wallace ($8,600 DK, $9,500 FD)

Draftkings is begging us to build a balanced lineup on Sunday by inflating the salaries of Wallace/Jones/etc. while lowering the top salary to $10,800, but that is OK because we are looking for top 10 finishers, which is what Wallace provides for us. Bubba starts 19th on Sunday and ran the 8th best single lap speed and 9th best five lap average during practice. This season Wallace has excelled at intermediate tracks with a win two weeks ago at Kansas and a 2nd place finish at Michigan in August. Why did he end up as the risky pick of the week you may be asking. Well he is terrible at Texas, with one top 20 finish in his last six race here. Bubba has bucked some bad track history during his current hot streak and we are looking for that to continue on Sunday.

Bargain Basement

Corey Lajoie ($5,200 DK, $3,000 FD)

Lajoie is cheap, starting 29th, and has top 20 upside which is exactly what we are looking for in this range. Corey wasn't remarkable in practice but he has three top 20 finishes this season at similar tracks and two top 20 finishes in his last three races here. I still don't recommend dipping into the bargain basement in all lineups but if you need to, Lajoie is clearly the top option.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Texas that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Tyler Reddick ($9,400 DK, $8,800 FD)

Alex Bowman ($8,400 DK, $8,000 FD)

Ross Chastain ($9,200 DK, $10,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Michael McDowell ($6,400 DK, $5,500 FD)

McDowell may be able to hang out in the top 10 at road courses or superspeedways but there is no chance he hold onto his 5th place starting position on Sunday. He has an average finish of 19.6 over his last 5 races here and an average finish of 23 at similar tracks this season. He won't be highly owned on Sunday but he also won't be in the top 10 for long so I'll roll out a full fade.

Pitstop Picks

16-44 (-16.3 u)

Bell is much more consistent here and Hamlin only has two top 10 finishes in his last seven races here. I like finding value in plus money H2Hs so lets see how this works out.

I like Logano to lead and finish well but I think Byron has the higher ceiling for DFS and betting purposes. Truex and Harvick are placeholders at this point and Byron vs Logano will be a divisive issue in the DFS community going into the race.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 500 cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!