LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS and 2023(x3) FWRC qualifier @joejets19

💬Join the LineStar NASCAR Chat for info from experts.

Check out the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 Cheatsheet

Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400🏁

I don’t know about you guys, but I am entirely over short track racing for now. Fortunately for us, everything is bigger in Texas, and that is precisely where the NASCAR Cup Series is headed to this weekend. The Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 will occur this Sunday at Texas Motor Speedway in Fort Worth, TX. The track is a moderately banked, 1.5 mile quad oval. Each of the last two races here saw more than 10 cautions, making races here slightly more unpredictable than you would expect. This year, they are running the same tire codes that were used at Las Vegas (a race that saw 6 total cautions). While we can’t predict whose tires are going to blow, keep this in the back of your mind, and don’t get overexposed to any individual driver.

Warm and dry weather is in the forecast for Sunday. It will be a great day to enjoy a race, and there is no chance we see a Monday finish.

_{On to Texas!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 267 laps will be run this week, and 66.75 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 200 laps should run under the green flag for 90 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

Nice the implementation of the new rules packages, races at Texas have been weird. The absurd number of cautions has thrown a wrench in the dominator picture. A track known for having one major dominator has more of a muddled outlook, and I expect it to play out more like a two-dominator race. The first dominator will most likely come from the top 3, a trend that held true both pre and post rules package. The second driver will not be as easy to nail down. As the chaos unfolds, good drivers can make big moves, and any fast car that finds itself up front can stay up there. While I anticipate that this will be a two-dominator race, I would roster a top 3 driver and then hope one of my place differential drivers ends up dominating. It's not the most reliable strategy, but this race can be a bit of a tossup.

With that being said, finishing position has been incredibly important in the last 2 races here. Every driver in the last two perfect lineups has finished in the top 11, and the entire perfect lineup in 2022 finished in the top 7. Drivers can make big moves at Texas, three of the twelve drivers in the last two perfect lineups started 30th or worse. I wouldn’t go out of my way stacking drivers starting that far back, but if they wound up in your lineup I would evaluate their top 10 potential.

Bargain basement drivers are a touch tricky this weekend. They need to be cheap and have top 10 potential, which is nearly unheard of at non-superspeedways. I would probably reserve my bargain basement exposure to cash games, where we don’t need to nail anywhere near the perfect lineup to be profitable.

If anyone has been following the SIM projections in the cheatsheet, you may notice a large spread between most driver’s ceiling and floor as well as a large distribution on top 10 drivers. That is an incredibly encouraging sign, the model understand the volatility of this track and has worked it into the projections.

Stage 1: 80 Laps

Stage 2: 85 Laps

Stage 3: 102 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kyle Busch ($9,000 DK, $8,200 FD)

Kyle Busch has crashed in each of the last two races at Texas, had trouble at five similar tracks over the last 2 years, and smashed his car so good in practice on Saturday it went on fire, so what do I do?….Recommend him for cash. This is the perfect buy-low spot for Busch on Sunday. The future Hall of Famer starts 35th this weekend and has a fantastic long-term history at Texas, but, as I mentioned previously, his short-term history is horrific. I do not expect his trouble to continue; he is just too good, and Busch is one of the only drivers starting worse than 25th with legitimate top-10 potential.

Joey Logano ($8,800 DK, $8,500 FD)

Logano is another big-name driver that is relatively inexpensive, is starting 20th on Sunday, and has top-10 potential. While Joey has run into trouble in two of the last three Texas races, he posted the 9th best single lap speed and 3rd best 10 lap average in practice on Saturday. Logano finished 9th in Las Vegas earlier this season and has had several top 5 finishes at similar tracks over the last two seasons.

Tournament Targets

Kyle Larson ($11,000 DK, $14,000 FD)

Larson captured his third straight pole on Saturday, and I am looking forward to him repeating his dominance this weekend. Larson ran the 3rd fastest single-lap speed in practice to go along with his second-best 10-lap and the best 15-lap averages. Kyle dominated this race last season but ran into trouble and finished 31st, well outside the perfect lineup. Larson is one of the best 1.5 mile drivers in the series at this point. He won at Las Vegas earlier this season and has five top 5 finishes at similar tracks last season. The entire top 10 is star-studded and could dominate at any point, but I think our best option is Larson.

Ty Gibbs ($8,500 DK, $9,500 FD)

Is Sunday the day Gibbs finally picks up his first W? My model thinks so. He starts second and ran a strong race at Las Vegas earlier this season. I can’t really put my finger on why my model is so high on Gibbs this weekend. The simulations give him the second best average finishing position of 4.44 and project him to finish in the top 10 in 91% of the time. Toyotas were very fast on Saturday, and the only driver I predict to give Gibbs a run for his money is teammate Truex Jr., who is an intriguing tournament option.

Bargain Basement

Todd Gilliland ($5,600 DK, $3,500 FD)

There is nothing good about this price range this weekend. For tournaments, I will be avoiding them at all costs. Gilliland is not precisely a cash safe option from his starting position of 28th. He should be able to crack the top 20 but definitely won’t sniff the top 10.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like at Texas that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,100 DK, $4,000 FD)

Chris Buescher ($8,000 DK, $8,500 FD)

Martin Truex Jr ($9,700 DK, $11,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Chase Briscoe ($7,700 DK, $6,800 FD)

Just like how I can’t figure out why the sim predictions love Ty Gibbs, they equally hate Briscoe. Chase starts 5th on Sunday and didn’t post a top 15 single lap speed or lap average in practice over the weekend. I don’t expect Briscoe to be in the top 10 for very long and he will ultimately succumb to being middle of the pack.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 7-7 (1.5 u)

By now everyone should know my love for plus money H2Hs. It is important to note that these aren’t just underdog picks, they are dogs that are offering positive odds for a win, which is fairly rare in H2Hs due to the spread. This week, Blaney is involved in most of them, and I was going between his matchup against Byron and Hamlin. They are both the hotter drivers in 2024, but at similar tracks since 2023, Blaney stacks up pretty well. My model projects Blaney to have a higher finishing position, higher average finishing position, and higher top 10% than Byron by a significant margin. I’m not saying this is a run away but it shouldn’t be plus money.

Bowman should be the hands down favorite in this group. He is the most consistent driver by far, and I love his potential in the top 10.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 3-4 (+5.05 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For comments on every driver and additional stats, check out the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400

Find me on Twitter. Good Luck!