LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Check out the AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400 Cheatsheet

AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400🏁

For the most part, Sonoma was a snoozefest with SVG completely dominating the race and nothing much happening behind him. Hopefully, we will get a more exciting endeavour this Sunday when the NASCAR Cup Series travels to Dover Motor Speedway in Dover, DE, for the AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400. The “Monster Mile” is a 1 mile, steeply banked, concrete oval. Passing in dirty air is fairly easy at Dover, but clean air will be king this weekend, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t see a green flag pass for the lead.

Rain interrupted on-track activity on Saturday, but there doesn’t seem to be too much of a threat on Sunday. One programming note, the lack of practice has completely driven my model crazy, so that data is pretty much completely unreliable. I spent several hours trying to troubleshoot it, but in the end, I apologize for the inconvenience.

On to Dover!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 400 laps will be run this week, and 100 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 355 laps should run under the green flag for 159.75 possible DK points)

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

1) Dominators are back. Each of the three Next Gen races featured at least one driver who led more than 100 laps. There can be a second driver that leads between 60-90 laps, but strangely, none of those drivers have started in the top 3. We will need at least 2 drivers who lead a significant chunk of laps, but they can start anywhere in the top 20.

2) Good cars will move up. Passing will be relatively easy throughout the field, just not up front. Fast cars will be able to move into the top 10, but they will inevitably stall out. Once we locate our dominators, we need to find drivers starting in the middle of the field that we think can move up.

3) This is a rare double punt weekend. Dover is one of the rare tracks where a double punt strategy may work. If we roster four higher-end drivers who start well and project to finish well, we can offset the salary with a low-cost driver who picks up a few spots. Our punts are real punts this weekend as well, starting 30th and finishing 25th will be perfectly fine.

Stage 1: 120 Laps

Stage 2: 130 Laps

Stage 3: 150 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Alex Bowman ($8,800 DK, $9,500 FD): Bowman starts 16th on Sunday and has solid place differential potential. He has an average finish of 6.5 over his last 3 races here and an average running position of 7th. He has been particularly poor at correlated tracks, which is unusual, but overall not particularly concerning.

Ryan Blaney ($10,700 DK, $13,000 FD): Blaney is starting 31st on Sunday and is the driver with the most place differential potential in the field. Larson is also starting towards the back, but he is much more expensive and has a better starting position.

Ross Chastain ($9,500 DK, $11,000 FD): Chastain quietly has become a Dover assassin. Over his last three races here, he has finished 3, 2, and 12 with a positive place differential of 10 or more spots in two of those three races. Ross starts 19th on Sunday, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he leads some laps and finishes in the top 10.

Tournament Targets

William Byron ($10,500 DK, $12,500 FD): Byron has found himself up front in each of the last two races here and I expect him to continue that trent on Sunday. He has had trouble finishing at Dover, which is concerning, but I think all eyes will be on Elliott and Bell, which makes Byron a fantastic tournament pivot.

Kyle Larson ($11,500 DK, $14,000 FD): Larson is the most expensive driver on the slate and will most likely be a place differential play. While Blaney is the more obvious cash play, the high salary and low chance of dominating make Larson an intriguing tournament option at lower-than-expected ownership.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($6,200 DK, $5,500 FD): Like most tracks, Stenhouse is very boom or bust at Dover with finishes of 2, 15, and 35 over his last three races. Ricky starts 34th on Sunday, and if he manages to finish anywhere near his average finishing position of 17.33, he should be a shoo-in for the perfect lineup.

Erik Jones ($6,300 DK, $6,200 FD): Jones is not quite in the bargain basement, but he is cheap enough to consider for a double dip. He starts 27th and has two top 16 finishes in his last two races at Dover. A top 20 would be a good enough finish to pay off Erik’s salary.

Bargain Basement

Noah Gragson ($5,900 DK, $4,800 FD)

Noah is not nearly as cheap as some of his other basement dwellers, but his 36th starting position and his top finish of 6th have me at least intrigued. I do not expect another top 10 any time soon, but there is some potential for at least a respectable finish.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Dover that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Brad Keselowski ($7,600 DK, $7,200 FD)

Zane Smith ($5,600 DK, $5,000 FD)

Denny Hamlin ($11,000 DK, $13,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Chase Elliott ($10,000 DK, $12,000 FD)

This is entirely a YOLO fade and not for the faint of heart. Dover has not been kind to the front row, but it has been kind to Elliott, so there is a chance that he will completely take control of this race. I think there will be enough opportunity for the fast cars behind him to make their presence known,

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 28-40 (2.2 u)

2025 results: 17-21 (7.9 u)

Larson is the betting favorite for this race, and I don’t see it. Yes, I wrote him up, but being a good DFS play and winning the race are two entirely separate things. Byron starts 5th and I think has a much better chance of taking home the checkered flag. William is slightly more accident-prone, but I think he is the better overall play in this format.

Not to pile on Larson, but a top 4 bet is a big ask. His top finish over the last three races is 4th, and he has only accomplished that once. Another driver that the books are much higher on than I is Carson Hocevar. Despite starting 33rd, he is -105 to finish in the top 10. This is another line I will never understand, and I am going to hammer it any way I can.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 11-15 (+11.45 u)

2025 Results: 4-6 (0.31 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For additional stats, check out the AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400 Cheatsheet

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