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LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS and 2023(x3) FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400🏁

Round 1 of the playoffs is in the books, and there were some surprising eliminations, including the reigning Cup Champion Joey Logano. Round 2 is definitely the trickiest of the playoffs and it kicks off this Sunday at Texas Motor Speedway in Fort Worth, TX. The track is a 1.5 mile, banked, quad oval closely resembling Charlotte Motor Speedway. I expect this race to be the calm before the storm, meaning the real fireworks will happen in the next two weeks at Talladega and the Charlotte Roval. All playoff races are important and a ticket to the next round is up for grabs but from a fan perspective I think is going to be the equivalent to eating our vegetables.

NASCAR has been having terrible luck with weather recently and Sunday may be no different. There is 30-40% chances of rain for the entire afternoon and the way this season is going a Monday race is not outside the realm of possibility.

_{On to Texas!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 267 laps will be run this week, and 66.75 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 220 laps should run under the green flag for 99 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

Last year’s race was a major outlier with 16 cautions for 91 laps, which completely jumbled historical trends for this track. It is highly unlikely that Sunday’s race plays out in a similar fashion so I am going to keeply disregard the 2022 event. Over the last 11 races here, a driver starting on the front row make the perfect lineup in 10 races, and a total of 12 front row drivers made their respective perfect lineups overall (two races had both drivers). That is an incredibly high number and one that I would expect to continue, considering the importance of clean air at this track type. Drivers starting on the front row will generally be one of the dominators in the race and finish well, which is the perfect combination. When these drivers don’t completely run away with a race, the major dominator still comes from the top 10, so front-loaded lineups are the key to races at Texas. There are about as many one dominator races as there are three dominator races here but the thing they all have in common is at least two of their drivers started in the top 10. I would suggest rostering one of the drivers in the front row and at least 1, possibly 2 other drivers starting in the top 10 this Sunday in an attempt to capture a significant portion of laps led.

Once we select our dominators, as I hinted at it a minute ago, we will want to prioritize the finishing position. To take down a tournament we will need at least five drivers that finish in the top 10, but 6 would be ideal. While this may seem like an insane goal, this is one of maybe two tracks that I have seen a perfect lineup consisting of the entire top 6 in finishing position. This is a high-risk lineup construction but it is not an impossible task. If we want a shot at 1st place, we will want to build some uncomfortable lineups this weekend.

With all that being said, bargain basement drivers are still a prominent feature in Texas. While a double dip will not be encouraged, a lineup with one punt has a chance of making the perfect lineup but in that scenario, we need to gobble up every possible lap led so think of it as jumping into the basement to be able to afford another stud.

Stage 1: 80 Laps

Stage 2: 80 Laps

Stage 3: 107 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Ryan Blaney ($9,400 DK, $11,000 FD)

Texas is one of Blaney’s strongest tracks on the NASCAR circuit and he happens to shape up as the perfect place differential driver this weekend. I know, I know, we focused on dominators and finishing position in the lineup construction section, then led the picks with a place differential driver, but this is the cash section, and Blaney starting 23rd is incredibly tempting. There are two things Ryan loves to do here: lead laps and finish in the top 10. He is significantly cheaper than many of the other big names and he is just about as likely to finish in the top 10, but his advantage is all he needs is a 10th place finished to pay off his salary. His practice times were slightly blah on Saturday but I am going to trust his track history as well as his success at similar tracks. By no means do I think Blaney will be a dominator on Sunday, but I love the place differential upside he provides.

Joey Logano ($8,100 DK, $8,000 FD)

Logano has been much less consistent than his normal self, including a DNF last week to knock himself out of the playoffs. Even though he isn’t racing for a championship I can’t imagine him running into trouble two weeks in a row, so that sets him up as a great buy low candidate on Sunday. Joey starts 20th this weekend and is a top 10 machine at Texas with ten top 10s in his last twelve races here. His second-best single-lap time in practice on Saturday is very encouraging, especially when combined with his 8th-best 5-lap average. Logano is another non-dominator but he brings a solid floor and realistic top 10 potential at a discount.

Tournament Targets

Chris Buescher ($8,800 DK, $10,000 FD)

We will want one driver starting on the front row, and I am riding Buescher this weekend. While I never thought I’d see the day where $8,800 is a price dip for Buescher, this is actually the second cheapest he’s been in the last six races. Chris starts second on Sunday and ran a better single lap speed as well as 5 lap average than the man starting right beside him, Bubba Wallace. Buescher won at Michigan this season, which is one of the Texas’ correlated tracks, and he has consistently been a strong performer at similar tracks this season.

Kyle Busch ($9,600 DK, $10,500 FD)

Let’s call this a gut play. Busch is a former winner at Texas, he starts 7th on Sunday, and he was very good on the long run during practice on Saturday. We have an idea of how we want to construct our lineups, with at least two top 10 drivers, and Kyle certainly checks several boxes for us. He has performed absolutely terribly at similar tracks this season with 3 DNFs but that’s what makes him risky, right? Honestly, he is too good of a driver to suffer another issue, so I am looking to capitalize on some positive regression, and if he can lead a nice chunk of laps this Sunday, we will be way ahead of the field.

Bargain Basement

Corey LaJoie ($5,700 DK, $4,200 FD)

LaJoie is starting 27th on Sunday and has top 20 potential, which is incredible for the price range. Gilliland will garner a (relative) ton of ownership because he is starting dead last, but he is riding in the 51 this weekend, which is a disaster. The smart play is to pay up for Corey this weekend, if he breaks the top 20 he is a legitimate perfect lineup contender.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Texas that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Kevin Harvick ($8,300 DK, $7,200 FD)

Kyle Larson ($11,200 DK, $13,500 FD)

Michael McDowell ($6,300 DK, $5,200 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

AJ Allmendinger ($6,600 DK, $5,500 FD)

Brutal stretch for the fades, In the last two weeks, the fades ended up in the perfect lineup. Dinger starts 6th and could make the case for the perfect lineup if he hangs on to a top 10, but I think the playoff drivers are going to make light work of him. While we want to front load our lineups, we will want to avoid landmines like AJ.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 12-39 (-16.75 u)

Hamlin and Larson are the favorites to win this race, and Chastain is starting well, but people should not be sleeping on Truex. While Martin’s history here is more boom or bust than we are used to, he has three top 2 finishes at similar tracks this season, and that is very hard to beat. I can’t pass up the +450 price tag; that is almost his odds to win the race.

While the fairytale championship aspirations are over, Harvick will still be looking to make some noise on his way out. Kevin has a top 10 finish in 13/15 races here. Admittedly, the last two were ugly, but he was on an unbelievable tare, something had to give.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

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