🔥Written by 2020 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Autotrader Echo Park Automotive 500 🏁

The Roval was as dramatic as we could have hoped. Some storylines should continue for the rest of the season ***cough Harvick/Elliott cough*** and the next round of the playoffs kicks off this Sunday at Texas Motor Speedway in Fort Worth, TX for the Autotrader Echo Park Automotive 500. The track is 1.5 mile, banked, quad-oval with low tire wear. There are no weather concerns for the weekend and it is projected to be a great day for racing. The season is starting to get down to the nitty-gritty. The round of 8 will include races in Texas, Kansas and conclude in Martinsville. I expect the next two weekends to be fairly calm events with a fireworks show in the penultimate race of the season.

On to the Texas!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 334 laps will be run this and 83.5 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 294 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 132.3 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

Texas is a strange race by DFS standards. A 500 mile race at a 1.5 mile track is not a typical combination and will provide us with more dominator points than we are used to at this track type. Oddly enough, however, there has only been one race in the last 10 trips to Texas that have produced two drivers that led more than 100 laps. In that same time period, there have been two races where no driver led more than 100 laps. We generally see one major dominator here, leading between 100-175 laps and there is no guarantee a second dominator will emerge. All nine of the drivers that led more than 100 laps started in the top 10 but only three of them won the race, which really makes this race quite the puzzle to solve. Nine of the last 10 perfect lineups featured at least two drivers that started in the top 10 so I think the safest way to approach your dominator pool this week is to search the top 10 and roster at least two of those drivers and hope you nail the race winner and the dominator.

Balancing out the rest of your lineup will also be tricky here. While it is possible to pick up a significant amount of spots throughout the race, dominator points are also more widely available so it nullifies some of the value of place differential. There have been two perfect lineups in the last 10 races here that have featured four drivers starting in the top 10, all of which led at least a handful of laps and finished well. While those are clearly outlier races, it is worth mentioning that 49/60 drivers in the last 10 perfect lineups have stared in the top 26, including all 30 drivers in the last five races. Front-loaded lineups are tough to swallow sometimes but they could be the optimal way to attack any large tournament.

Stage 1: 105 laps, Stage 2: 105 laps, Stage 3: 124 laps

Competition Caution: Lap 25

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kyle Busch ($9,800 DK, $13,000 FD)

Picking the right dominator in cash this week is going to be incredibly difficult to do. All eyes will be on Hamlin and Larson starting on the front row because they have been the best drivers on 1.5 mile tracks this season but I think Kyle Busch is actually the safest of the three for cash games. Busch is starting third and is the cheapest of the three. At the other 1.5 mile, low tire wear tracks (Kansas, Vegas, and Charlotte), Larson has two wins (Vegas 1 and Charlotte), Hamlin has one win (Vegas 2) and Busch has one win (Kansas 1). In those races, however, Busch actually has the best average finish (2.5) compared to Hamlin (6) and Larson (7.75). When looking at Texas specifically, Busch also has the best average finish of the three (6.67 vs 20.33 vs 23) over the last six races. While Busch has not had nearly as much positive press as the other two drivers this season, I think he has had a very solid season and could punch his ticket to the Championship on Sunday.

Kurt Busch ($8,700 DK, $8,700 FD)

The elder Busch is not a potential dominator by any means but starting 17th, he doesn't have to be. Kurt has been incredibly consistent here with an average finish of 7.83 over his last six races at Texas and ran well at the most recent 1.5 mile track, Las Vegas. Kurt has finished between 7-9 in each of the last seven races at Texas which is right around where he needs to land to hit value on place differential alone and I think that is a perfectly reasonable expectation on Sunday.

Tournament Targets

Ryan Blaney ($9,500 DK, $11,000 FD)

Texas is one of Blaney's best tracks on the circuit and he loves to lead laps here. Ryan has at least 20 laps led five of the last eight races here including two races where he led 148 and 150 laps respectively. Blaney is starting 4th on Sunday so he has very limited place differential potential but he has been very fast at 1.5 mile tracks this season and has a great chance to finish in the top 5. I wouldn't roll out Blaney as a solo dominator but I think he would fit perfectly in a lineup with two drivers starting in the top 10 because I expect him to rack up about 50 laps led and a top 5 finish on his way to the perfect lineup.

Aric Almirola ($8,100 DK, $8,000 FD)

Full disclosure, I hate this pick, but I was scouring the 10-25 range for drivers with top 10 potential and the pickings are slim. Almirola is having a terrible season besides a few bright spots but he is incredibly good at Texas. We have seen this year that Almirola can still perform well at his historically good tracks and that is what I am banking on this Sunday. He starts 22nd and I think he will be most useful as a tournament pivot off of Kurt Busch, offering a salary discount and some extra place differential without sacrificing a ton of ceiling. While I do think it is much more likely for Kurt to hit his ceiling, I think Almirola can sneak into the top 10 on his best day.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,200 DK, $5,700 FD)

Everything seems right in this world when I am able to stick Stenhouse into the risky pick of the week. Ricky starts 27th on Sunday (right outside my top 26 target) and is the model of consistency at Texas...when he doesn't have a problem. In his last 10 races here, Stenhouse has seven finishes between 1.1-16 and three races with car troubles. Considering he had issues in two of the last three races here, I think he is due for a safe stretch over the next two or three races. True to form, Stenhouse has two top 12 finishes at low tire wear tracks this season....and a DNF. Ricky is nowhere near a cash game safe pick but he does have tournament-winning upside.

Bargain Basement

Ryan Preece ($6,000 DK, $5,100 FD)

I am going to be avoiding almost the entire bargain basement and think pricing is soft enough to make that a possibility. The cheapest driver in my player pool will be Preece, starting 23rd. In Preece's last four races here he has a top finish of 18th and a top finish of 15th at low tire wear tracks this season. I am not going to have a ton of Ryan on Sunday but he will find his way into some of my lineups.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Texas that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,300 DK, $11,500 FD)

Austin Dillon ($7,500 DK, $8,500 FD)

Kevin Harvick ($10,900 DK, $10,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Chris Buescher ($6,500 DK, $7,300 FD)

We are hurting for low-end value this weekend but Buescher is not it. He starts 10th on Sunday but only has one top 15 finish at Texas in 11 tries. His 8th place finishes at Charlotte and Kansas this year may give some people hope for a solid run in this race too but I will be avoiding that trap.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Autotrader Echo Park Automotive 500 cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!