LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Autotrader 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Autotrader 400🏁

Last weekend’s Daytona 500 could not have kicked off the 2026 season in a better way. A “Big One”, threat of weather, and a last-lap pass for the win were immediately overshadowed by everyone complaining about fuel saving, but when we look back, this year’s event will be seen as one of the best in recent history. Enough reminiscing, however, the season is just getting started, and this Sunday, the NASCAR Cup Series travels to EchoPark Speedway in Hampton, GA, for the Autotrader 400. Formerly Atlanta Motor Speedway, the track is a 1.54-mile, steeply banked quad-oval widely regarded as the third superspeedway on the circuit. While there are significant differences between EchoPark and the traditional superspeedways, which will be highlighted in the Lineup Construction section, our approach this weekend will be more similar to the Daytona race than the Martinsville one.

Although qualifying was rained out on Saturday, there is no weather in the forecast for Sunday. While I will be preparing for yet another foot of snow in the Northeast, Georgia will be dealing with an unseasonably cool but sunny afternoon.

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 260 laps will be run this week, and 65 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 200 laps should run under the green flag for 90 possible DK points)

Finishing Position Points: The 40th-place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

1) Forget about dominators (maybe?) Atlanta is a mini-superspeedway, and drafting will be the name of the game. What makes Atlanta unique is that drivers can lead a significant number of laps, and there are scenarios in which a driver can stay up front for the entire race, allowing all the chaos to unfold behind them. Of the drafting tracks, Atlanta is the one where I am most comfortable rostering drivers starting in the top 10, but that isn’t really saying much. There is also a chance that a nice chunk of laps led will be spread around, and we will have to get the combination just right to take down a tournament.

2) Place differential is still the most important factor. If this turns into a wreckfest, a back-loaded lineup will pay dividends. Even if this is a “Big One”-less superspeedway race, there is still a chance a back-loaded lineup can work. For cash games, I wouldn’t roster anyone starting better than 20th. In tournaments, two top 10 drivers are a viable option, but that is an incredibly high-risk lineup construction.

3) Top 10 or bust. Drafting tracks are unpredictable at best, but we will want every driver to finish in the top 10. While that doesn’t narrow our player pool down too much, there are always a handful of drivers we know are allergic to a good finish. To that point, last Fall’s perfect lineup contained each driver finishing in the top 6. There has only been one other race I can remember that happened. Can anyone guess what race that was?

4) We can leave some money on the tablet, but let’s not go crazy. Yes, back-loaded lineups are generally less expensive, but this isn’t Daytona. I wouldn’t expect the perfect lineup to leave more than $5,000 on the table.

Stage 1: 80 Laps

Stage 2: 80 Laps

Stage 3: 100 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Alex Bowman ($7,300 DK, $7,200 FD): Bowman ran into some trouble at Daytona and, as a result, starts 36th this Sunday. He has been hit or miss here in his career, but Alex has finished in the top 5 in two of the last three races here. There are only two drivers starting behind Bowman this weekend, and I think he provides the type of safety with upside that we really need at superspeedways.

Christopher Bell ($9,200 DK, $10,500 FD): Bell is another respectable superspeedway racer who is starting in the rear (32nd to be specific) due to a rough outing last weekend. Chris won this race last year and has three top-3 finishes in his last seven races here.

Ryan Preece ($7,000 DK, $7,000 FD): Preece has not shown the upside of the previous two picks, but he has avoided major trouble in his previous six races here. Starting on the 26th, Ryan is significantly riskier of a pick than Bell or Bowman, but I like his chances of landing in the top 15. He will not be the best tournament play due to his lack of ceiling, but I also don’t expect him to be very highly owned.

Tournament Targets

Chase Briscoe ($8,400 DK, $8,200 FD): Briscoe is the typical driver who qualifies well and finishes poorly at Atlanta. This year, however, he is starting 34th, and I think he will go considerably overlooked because of his mediocre average finish. Chase got caught up in other drivers' messes fairly often here, but I think starting further back in the field will help him avoid the chaos.

Ryan Blaney ($10,200 DK, $14,000 FD): Blaney is a fantastic superspeedway driver, and he carries his successes over to Atlanta as well. Ryan starts 22nd on Sunday and is coming in on a streak of six top 9 finishes in his last seven races here. Blaney finished dead last here in the Fal,l and I actually love that because that means he already got his bad variance finish out of the way.

Kyle Busch ($8,800 DK, $9,000 FD): I couldn’t believe it when I was doing my research and saw that Busch has the best average finish over the last 6 races at Atlanta. Considering how pitiful the rest of the last two seasons have gone for Kyle, that is absolutely astonishing, but starting 14th gives Busch significant positive place differential potential.

Joey Logano ($10,000 DK, $13,500 FD): This play is downright insane, but I believe Logano can use his second-place starting position to dominate the early portion of the race. Dominators have happened at Atlanta, and a driver starting in the front row has been in the perfect lineup twice since the remodel. Fords have been exceedingly strong at superspeedways in recent history, and I anticipate Logano will continue that trend.

Bargain Basement

Cole Custer ($5,300 DK, $3,200 FD)

Custer is very cheap and starts 27th. He doesn’t have as much experience at the new Atlanta as the other drivers, and he does have a handful of poor performances, but my model projects him to finish 12th on Sunday. Custer has an average finish of 10th at the correlated track, so we know he knows how to do it; he just needs to execute better.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like at Atlanta that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Carson Hocevar ($7,900 DK, $8,000 FD)

Ty Gibbs ($6,600 DK, $6,800 FD)

Kyle Larson ($9,500 DK, $11,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Josh Berry ($6,900 DK, $6,000 FD)

Berry is the typical starts well and finishes poorly driver. He started in the top 14 in each of his last four races here, and his best finish in those races is 25th. He starts 10th on Sunday and actually needs to gain 1 spot to hit value. There is zero chance that is happening.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u) 2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 28-40 (2.2 u) 2025 results: 29-41 (6.2 u)

2026 results: 1-1 (0 u)

DraftKings is slacking in their H2H game again this weekend, so we have to hop over to MGM. Reddick won last week, so he finds himself on the pole this Sunday. He has been consistently boom-or-bust at Atlanta, with three top-6 finishes and three finishes 19th or worse in his last six races here. Elliott starts just one row back in 4th place and only has one finish worse than 19th since the remodel. While this looks like a runaway victory for Elliott, my model actually gives the edge to Reddick, and that is enough for me to throw a unit on this matchup.

Stenhouse Jr is on a heater at Atlanta with 6 straight top 17 finishes here. In those races, however, he has never started better than 27th. He starts 3rd on Sunday and will need to finish better than 13th to score more than 20.5 DK points. While my model thinks he will finish 7th, can it truly understand how destructive and reckless he can be on a drafting track? As for Chase Briscoe, he has a ton of place differential potential and is a great DFS play, but if we are being honest, he has never finished better than 15th here and has a top finish of 21st in his last six races. A top-12 finish is a huge ask, and not one I am willing to bet on.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (+2.85 u) 2024 Results: 11-15 (+11.45 u)

2025 Results: 7-15 (-4.09 u)

2026 Results 0-1 (-1 u)

I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For additional stats, check out the Autotrader 400 Cheatsheet

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