LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Ambetter Health 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS and 2023(x3) FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Check out the Ambetter Health 400 Cheatsheet

Ambetter Health 400🏁

There are so many things I will never understand about NASCAR, but their special ability to ruin high-profile moments is at the top of the list. Mother Nature imposed her will on the Daytona 500 last weekend, forcing the race to take place on Monday afternoon. In general, Monday races have a deflated feel to them, and last week was no different. Right when the race was about to redeem itself with a fantastic finish, a caution was thrown 0.01 seconds into the final lap, ending the 500 on a yellow for the second consecutive year—a brutal finish to a frustrating weekend.

The NASCAR Cup Series is looking to bounce back this weekend, however, when they travel to Atlanta Motor Speedway in Hampton, GA, for the Ambetter Health 400. Two years ago, Atlanta underwent a significant renovation, essentially converting it into a 1.54 mile quad oval superspeedway. The racing surface is smooth, the corners are steeply banked, and drafting is essential at this track.

Weather should not be a problem on Sunday. Sun and cool temperatures are in the forecast this weekend; looks like Mother Nature left us alone for the time being.

_{On to Atlanta!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 260 laps will be run this week, and 65 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 215 laps should run under the green flag for 96.75 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

In what might actually be an unprecedented occurrence, NASCAR is running back-to-back superspeedways. While I hesitate to consider Atlanta a true superspeedway, the racing is certainly incredibly similar. If anyone wants an overview of what makes superspeedways unique, I would suggest reading last week’s Pitstop because I will not be starting from scratch. I would, however, like to point out the differences between racing at Atlanta and racing at Daytona/Talladega. Firstly, dominators will occur at Atlanta. Drivers will race in packs for most of the event, but passing for the lead has proven incredibly difficult under green flag conditions. The second major difference is a “Big One” is not guaranteed in Atlanta. While accidents do happen, and there is a certain level of attrition, we cannot bank on half the field getting destroyed in one accident. These two differences force us to abandon our strategy at Daytona. In tournaments, we will need to take a chance on at least one or maybe two drivers starting in the top 15 in the hopes of landing on a dominator. While the driver starting on the pole landed in the perfect lineup in two of the four races here, that is still an incredibly risky proposition. We will also want to avoid blindly picking six drivers starting 26th or worse. There will be enough attrition and passing to make back loading our lineups lucrative, we will need to employ a more balanced approach. Every driver in all four perfect lineups have finished in the top 10 so we will need to hone in on drivers with the ability to finish well. A low priced driver starting 30th and finishing 13th looks great on paper but in reality that won’t be enough to land in the perfect lineup. In cash games, I would suggest skipping the dominator search entirely and stay in the 20 to 30 range. A safe lineup will still cash, most likely, so there isn’t really a reason to take on too much risk.

A note pertaining to the cheatsheet. I am publishing the results of my newly developed machine-learning model. The projected finishing positions are what the model predicts under ideal circumstances, and the ranges are the results of 100 simulated races. The projected finish is a particular driver's average finish over the 100 races. The ceiling is the driver's best finish over those simulations, and the floor is the worst finish. I also added a new column for the top 10 %, which is fairly self-explanatory. I know the ranges are fairly wide for the second straight week, but this is a moderate to high attrition track, so it would stand to reason that every driver will run into trouble at least once over 100 races. Once we get to cookie cutter and road races, I am interested to see how the simulations play out, but for the time being, this is still a work in progress. As always, these projections are entirely my own and are not associated with Linestar’s optimizer in any way.

Stage 1: 60 Laps

Stage 2: 100 Laps

Stage 3: 100 Lap

Lineup Foundation Targets

Erik Jones ($8,000 DK, $7,200 FD)

For the second straight week, the driver starting dead last leads off the Foundation Targets. I know I just said that we can’t rely on “Big Ones” at Atlanta, and we need to prioritize top 10 finishing potential. Still, considering his starting position, there isn’t anyone safer to build a cash lineup around on Sunday. It doesn’t hurt that Jones has a fantastic track history with four straight top 14 finishes and two top 8s in that time. Erik has also had some success at Talladega, where he has three top 8 finishes in his last four races. Jones is a lock for cash games on Sunday, and he will also be in a significant number of tournament lineups.

Corey LaJoie ($6,800 DK, $5,800 FD)

Corey gets a major price bump this weekend, but salary isn’t much of a concern in this race. He starts 32nd on Sunday and is one of the best superspeedway drivers in the lower tier. LaJoie finished in the top 5 in both March races here and started in the 30s in each race. I would have to be nuts to expect another top 5 finish on Sunday, but I am confident LaJoie will turn in another cash-safe performance, and he has already proven he brings tournament-winning upside to the table.

Tournament Targets

Brad Keselowski ($9,300 DK, $11,000 FD)

Keselowski is not usually one of my superspeedway targets, but he has considerable upside from his 24th-place starting position. Brad is used to qualifying poorly here, but that hasn’t stopped him from finishing in the top 6 or leading laps. Luck has not been on his side recently at superspeedways, with two consecutive incidents, but that gives me even more confidence that he will be able to run a clean race on Sunday. Brad is in a unique position where he has the ability to finish in the top 10 and lead laps, which is exactly what we are looking for in our tournament lineups.

Kyle Busch ($9,700 DK, $10,000 FD)

If there is going to be a dominator from the front on Sunday, I think Busch is the most likely candidate. He starts third this weekend and is not afraid of racing from the front of the pack. McDowell is on the pole with Logano next to him. Both of those drivers have the ability to lead some, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they only stayed up front for the first few laps. Then Busch will make a move early for the lead. This should go without saying, but Kyle is not exactly a safe play, and I wouldn’t roster him in more than 20% of lineups.

Bargain Basement

Justin Haley ($5,300 DK, $3,500 FD)

I am well aware that I have a Justin Haley problem, but it is tough to pass him up at a superspeedway starting 31st. He is dirt cheap with top 10 potential, which is pretty much all you can ask for from a basement driver.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like at Atlanta that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Alex Bowman ($8,200 DK, $8,000 FD)

Bubba Wallace ($8,800 DK, $9,500 FD)

Chase Elliott ($9,800 DK, $12,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Chase Briscoe ($6,600 DK, $5,500 FD)

I don’t think there are going to be too many people standing for Briscoe on Sunday, but I will not feel bad about rolling out a full fade on him. Chase has made a living on qualifying in the top 10 and falling back at Atlanta, and I am positive he is going to continue his trend this weekend.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 0-2 (-2 u)

Suarez has finished in the top 6 in three of the four races at Atlanta. He is no stranger to moving up throughout the race and got his superspeedway bad karma out of the way by crashing last week.

Chevy has won three of the four races here and is set up well again on Sunday. Fords dominate the top 10, but that could be a detriment at a high attrition track. Overall I think the Ford vs Chevy matchup is pretty even this weekend so I’d instead take the +20.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 1-0 (+3.2 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For comments on every driver and additional stats, check out the Ambetter Health 400 Cheatsheet

Find me on Twitter. Good Luck!