LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Ambetter Health 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Check out the Ambetter Health 400 Cheatsheet

Ambetter Health 400🏁

As predicted, Mother Nature put a damper on last weekend’s festivities, but in the end, all she really did was add to the suspense. The overtime finish under the lights was one of the most exciting 500 endings in recent memory, and props to NASCAR for allowing everything to play out by not ending the race on a mid-lap caution. Drivers won’t be able to use this race to catch their breath and settle into the season, however, because this Sunday, the Cup Series travels to Atlanta Motor Speedway in Hampton, GA, for the Ambetter Health 400. Atlanta was repaved and reconfigured in 2021, transforming a cookie-cutter track to a 1.54 mile, steeply banked, quad-oval that essentially functions as a mini-superspeedway. We will not be able to rinse and repeat the strategy we used last weekend though, so check out the Lineup Construction section to see the key differences.

Cool temperatures and a 10% chance of rain are in the forecast for Sunday. This race has no reason to run into any weather issues this weekend.

_{On to Atlanta!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 260 laps will be run this week, and 65 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 210 laps should run under the green flag for 94.5 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

1) A Big One may not happen. Yes, there will be lots of drafting, but oddly enough, there is less chaos. Stacking the back has not been a goldmine at Atlanta. Traditionally, bad drivers can finish in the top 10 here, but attrition is not always the cause of the ceiling results. I expect there to be some mishaps, but there is significantly less carnage in Atlanta than at Daytona.

2) There will be a dominator. It is incredibly difficult to pass the leader in Atlanta, so whoever gets up front early will be there for a while. In tournaments, we must take a couple of shots at potential dominators if we want a chance to win it all.

3) Prioritize top 10 potential. Yes, there will be dominators and massive place differential gains, but the one thing each of the last six perfect lineups had in common is they featured at least 5 top 10 finishers (five of the six lineups had all six drivers finishing in the top 10). Don’t fall in love with a back marker and pray for chaos, look for drivers with a legitimate chance to finish in the top 10.

4) Salary doesn’t matter (kinda). Like last weekend, don’t be afraid to leave some salary on the table, but don’t overdo it. The total salary for the previous six perfect lineups has ranged from $45,500-$49,400. Again, we shouldn’t just load up on back markers this weekend. We can be more selective while still thinking outside the box.

Stage 1: 60 Laps

Stage 2: 100 Laps

Stage 3: 100 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

William Byron ($10,000 DK, $12,500 FD) Last week’s winner has two wins at Atlanta since the repave and 3 top-10 finishes in six chances. He’s relatively expensive and starting much further forward than people will look. My simulations give him a 93% chance of finishing in the top 10.

Ty Gibbs ($7,200 DK, $7,000 FD): Gibbs has two top-10 finishes in four tries at Atlanta, and both of those came in the spring race. He’s cheap and starting waaaaay in the back making him an ideal cash play.

Denny Hamlin ($9,100 DK, $10,500 FD): Denny is one of the best Daytona racers in the game, but this is Atlanta. Hamlin will garner a ton of attention due to his 37th-place starting position. Passing up on him in cash would be nuts, but I would love a tournament fade.

Tournament Targets

Christopher Bell ($8,200 DK, $9,500 FD): Bell is a nice pivot off of Hamlin in tournaments. Starting a couple of spots further forward and offering a discount, Christopher is going to go under-owned, and since salary will not be a problem on Sunday, I expect people to click on Hamlin since they have the cap room.

Chase Elliott ($9,500 DK, $11,500 FD): Elliott is a previous winner here and hasn’t finished worse than 15th since the remodel. I expect Chase to be in the hunt the entire race, just waiting for the opportunity to grab the lead.

Daniel Suarez ($8,100 DK, $10,000 FD): I do not know what it is about Atlanta, but Suarez is an absolute animal here. Daniel has five top 6 finishes here, including a win. He starts 29th on Sunday, so any top-10 finish will be more than enough to land him in the perfect lineup.

Ryan Blaney ($9,800 DK, $14,000 FD) Starting on the pole at the drafting track is typically a recipe for disaster, but I really like Blaney’s chances of leading the entire first stage. Ryan will be on the cusp of the perfect lineup if he can hang on to a top-five finish.

Bargain Basement

Carson Hocevar ($5,700 DK, $3,000 FD)

Hocevar is starting 26th on Sunday and has an average finish of 17.5 at Atlanta. He does not quite meet our top 10 potential requirements, but the basement is actually quite slim pickings this week.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like at Atlanta that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Michael McDowell ($7,100 DK, $6,500 FD)

Erik Jones ($6,800 DK, $6,800 FD)

Brad Keselowski ($9,300 DK, $11,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Zane Smith ($5,400 DK, $3,000 FD)

Smith starts 7th this Sunday, and there is zero chance I will roster him. Even if he holds on to that starting position, there’s a chance he gets outscored by a similarly priced driver with more place differential.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 28-40 (2.2 u)

2024 results: 1-1 (0 u)

I love me a nice plus money H2H, and we have two of the biggest names in NASCAR going against each other this weekend. Logano has the distinct starting position advantage but I think they have an equal shot of winning the race. My model gives a huge edge to Byron with an average sim finish of 3.85 vs Logano’s 11.33.

I am always looking to freshen up and improve the Pitstop and Underdog Fantasy, which is offering finishing position parlays. Ideally, we would like a more predictable track than Atlanta, but my model projects both of these drivers to finish significantly worse than their O/U, so why not take a shot?

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 11-15 (+11.45 u)

2025 Results: 0-1 (-1 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For additional stats, check out the Ambetter Health 400 Cheatsheet

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