LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Ambetter Health 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Ambetter Health 400🏁

After an unscheduled and scheduled hiatus, we are back to the NASCAR grind this week. Thank you for everyone’s support last weekend while I was in Denver for the Fantasy Basketball World Championship, the tournament didn’t quite go how I was hoping, but DFS can be funny like that. The Ambetter Health 400 will occur this Sunday at Atlanta Motor Speedway in Hampton, GA. The track is a 1.54 mile steeply banked quad-oval that was renovated before the 2022 season. Atlanta is now the steeped 1.5 mile track on the NASCAR circuit and forces drivers to draft more, effectively turning it into a mini-superspeedway. We will dive into the differences between Atlanta and the traditional superspeedways (Daytona and Talladega) in the lineup construction section.

No practices were scheduled this week, which wasn’t helpful for DFS purposes, so I used the green flag average speeds for this year’s Daytona race to gauge how the drivers’ superspeedway cars could perform this year.

Weather should be cooler than normal in Atlanta this weekend, and rain should not interfere with the race

On to Atlanta!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 260 laps will be run, and 65 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 200 laps should run under the green flag for 90 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

Atlanta was a different type of beast last year. The drivers almost exclusively drafted during both races, and there was plenty of attrition, but there were also dominators. The two drivers who led the most laps accounted for about 50% of the laps led in each race respectively. While the major dominator in the Summer race was the polesitter, the major dominators in the Spring race started 12th so there is not enough data to determine if starting position helps us zero in on a dominator. Either way, it looks like we will need to find at least 1 dominator if we want to be successful in tournaments, and I would suspect that driver will start in the top 15.

At traditional Superspeedways (Daytona and Talladega), stacking the back has proved to be a very successful strategy. In the two races last season at Atlanta, only one driver starting worse than 27th made the perfect lineup. Lineup constructions for this race will need to be slightly more nuanced Both perfect lineups had a major and a minor dominator while also having all 6 drivers finish in the top 10. Due to the relatively high attrition rate (about 30 %), this is not like a road race where the finishing position is the most important thing we are looking for, instead, we want drivers who can make big moves while also finishing well. Instead of picking all six drivers starting 25th or worse and hoping for all hell to break loose, we will need to choose the right balance of drivers we think can lead laps with drivers we think can finish in the top 10, without front loading our lineups.

The two perfect lineups from last season did not use the entire salary cap. In fact they only utilized $47,100 and $46,700 respectively. While that is not inherently useful, it helps support the idea that we will need to pay up for a couple of studs then use more lower priced drivers than normal because they generally have more place differential potential.h

Stage 1: 60 laps, Stage 2: 100 laps, Stage 3: 100 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Martin Truex Jr. ($8,900 DK, $9,500 FD)

While dominators will be important in tournaments on Sunday, it is very important to have a solid foundation to build our lineups on. Truex will provide that foundation on Sunday from his 29th starting position. He was able to sneak into the top 10 last Spring from a similar starting position and is cheap enough that a top 15 is all we would really need from him in cash. Truex should be a popular option this weekend which will limit his usefulness in tournaments but in cash games he is the perfect driver to center our lineups around.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,700 DK, $6,200 FD)

All eyes will be on the defending Daytona 500 champion on Sunday when we hit the second Superspeedway of the year. Stenhouse Jr starts 27th this weekend and has already reminded everyone this season that he is very good at drafting races. Ricky ran into trouble in both Atlanta races last year with a pair of 31st place finishes, and I am hoping that will scare off some players looking to get too cute. Overall, as much as it hurts to play Stenhouse Jr. in cash he is situated very this weekend.

Tournament Targets

Ryan Blaney ($10,400 DK, $13,500 FD)

Blaney is a sneaky good Superspeedway driver that always finds himself up front at some point during those races. On Sunday, he starts 3rd, a position that would normally be an inst-fade at Daytona and Talladega, but could possibly be beneficial at Atlanta. During the inaugural race here, no driver starting in the top 7 made the perfect lineup then the front row made the perfect lineup in the Summer. An argument could be made for Blaney to be the major dominator in the race, and he should be a fairly low owned tournament sleeper.

Denny Hamlin ($9,800 DK, $12,500 FD)

Hamlin is fairly cheap and is starting right on the edge of dominator potential at 15th. He generally tries to fall back at Superspeedways and allow the chaos to ensue in front of him, knowing the survival is the name of the game. He has the option on Sunday to continue that strategy or press forward and try to exploit the safety from the front. Either way he will carry a ton of risk on Sunday but will also be low owned due to his poor finishes last year from similar starting positions. I think this is a perfect buy low opportunity for Hamlin who will need a win to pay off his salary but has the experience and skill to make that a reality.

Bargain Basement

Harrison Burton ($5,400 DK, $3,500 FD)

Burton doesn’t find himself in the Pitstop very often, but sometimes playing him just makes sense. Like the drivers in the Lineup foundation section, Burton is starting way further back in the field than we may want to wander in tournaments, but it will be very hard to pass up his starting position of 33. Harrison posted a positive place differential in both races last year and was even able to sneak into the top 10 in the Summer.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Atlanta that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

William Byron ($10,900 DK, $14,000 FD)

Bubba Wallace ($8,300 DK, $10,000 FD)

Erik Jones ($7,500 DK, $7,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Kevin Harvick ($9,300 DK, $8,000 FD)

This is a bit of a galaxy brain fade but indulge me. Harvick is starting 6th and has a fantastic track history. Players who don’t follow close enough will look at his long term history and price and think they are getting a stud at a discount. Sharper players will see that Harvick ran well last year just didn’t lead laps and will be looking for a low owned dominator. I don’t think he will dominate or win so I’ll be rolling out a full fade on Sunday. He is decent at Superspeedways but not fantastic and I think he will run a solid race and probably finish in the top 10 but that won’t be enough to finish in the perfect lineup so why take on the risk?

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 0-4 (-4 u)

I love long shots in groups at Superspeedways and think this has a 50/50 chance of cashing. Bowman has a crash and a 10th place finish last year, Kes hasn’t finished better than 12th, and Reddick crashed twice last year. Wallace has a win at a Superspeedway and a top finish of 13th here. A top 10 will win this group, and I think Wallace has the best chance of pulling that off.

The former Daytona 500 winner finished 3rd here last Summer and is well positioned to repeat that on Sunday. Cindric is a very good superspeedway racer and starts 2nd this weekend. While I don’t think he will be a dominator it is within the reasonable range of outcomes, so if you want to hedge your DFS lineups this would be a nice way.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 1-1 (1.6u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Ambetter 400 and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!