🔥Written by 2020 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Ambetter 301🏁

Last week, Atlanta proved to be every bit as entertaining as NASCAR hoped for when they greenlight the renovation. We have seen some excellent racing this season, and I hope it continues on Sunday when the Cup series travels to New Hampshire Motor Speedway in Loudon, NH, for the Ambetter 301. The track is a 1.058 mile flat, asphalt oval. Last year's race was a complete catastrophe, including a major wreck from racing in the rain. Due to that, I will take those results with a grain of salt. The new rules package has been underwhelming on short tracks, and I expect it to be very difficult to pass on Sunday. Weather does not seem to be an issue this weekend, so it should be smooth sailing.

On to Loudon!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 301 laps will be run, and 75.25 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 250 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 112.5 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

Three hundred laps of short track racing means one thing, dominator points. As I mentioned earlier, I completely disregard the 2021 race because it was a mess, so all of the following statistics will not include that race. Each of the last seven races has featured two drivers that led 83 or more laps. In all seven of those races, one of the drivers starting on the front row managed to be one of the two dominators but only one of those drivers went on to win the race. Five of the seven secondary dominators also started in the top 10, with the two exceptions starting in 11th and 23rd. The last seven race winners have all started in the top 19; only two were dominators by our definition. This makes our lineup construction difficult for this race because we will need two drivers that start in the top 10 for dominators and a driver starting in the top 20 with race-winning upside. A stars and scrubs approach may be warranted for Sunday with three drivers $9,000+ and three drivers in the $6,000-$7000 range. We will need to hit the top 10 with all three of our stars and at least 1 scrub, so one of them must have considerable upside, but besides that, our last 2 drivers only need to pick up a couple of spots to make the perfect lineup. Ideally, we want all six drivers to finish in the top 20, but even that isn't an absolute must.

Stage 1: 70 laps, Stage 2: 115 laps, Stage 3: 116 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Martin Truex Jr ($10,400 DK, $11,000 FD)

Truex Jr is starting on the pole on Sunday and historically, that gives him a significant advantage at Loudon. He will be starting next to Chase Elliott who also gets a leg up on the field due to starting on the front row, but only one of these two drivers will be able to dominate and I think it is going to be Truex. Martin had the 5th best single lap speed in practice and the 8th best 10 lap average, edging out Elliott in both categories. He also has a superb long term history at New Hampshire, leading 83 or more laps in five consecutive races between 2016 and 2018. Admittedly Truex has not been having the season that Chase has, but even so Truex has the better average finish at similar tracks. This rules package rewards clean air and whoever is up front will be very difficult to pass. I think Truex is a safe bet to lead the early portion of this race and should be able to hold onto a top 10 finish.

Alex Bowman ($7,800 DK, $9,000 FD)

While this may not fit into our tournament strategy, I am willing to pay up for Bowman as one of my place differential drivers in cash. Alex starts 27th on Sunday and practiced way better than he qualified. Bowman ran the 17th fastest single-lap speed, the 19th best 5-lap average, and the 17th best 10-lap average on Saturday. He has an average finish of 12.67 over the last three races here and an average finish of 9.8 at similar tracks this season. Bowman is a lock for the top 20 and has top 10 upside, precisely what we are looking for.

Tournament Targets

William Byron ($9,400 DK, $10,000 FD)

While looking for a second dominator, not starting on the front row, the next obvious choice is William Byron starting 6th. Byron brought an absolute rocket ship to the track on Saturday, running the best single-lap speed and 5-lap average as well as the 3rd best 10-lap average. William has never finished in the top 10 at Loudon, which is slightly concerning, but he is having a fantastic year, and I think he can build on that with a fantastic performance this weekend.

Harrison Burton ($5,200 DK, $3,500 FD)

I rarely recommend a second basement driver on a non-superspeedway week, so Burton is my risky play of the week. Starting 31st, he can still move back far enough to go negative and he is starting far enough forward that his floor is significantly affected. Burton was impressive in practice however, running the 13th best single lap and 5 lap average and the 6th best 10 and 15 lap averages. At similar tracks he has an average finish of 23.4 this season, including an 18th place finish in Richmond. Even if he hits his average finish he will exceed value and if he matches his Richmond finish, we will be very happy he is in our lineup.

Bargain Basement

Ty Dillon ($5,400 DK, $4,000 FD)

Dillon is the much safer basement option of the slate. He starts 35th but showed he had a top 20 car in practice and excelled on the long run. Over the years, Dillon has two 16th place finishes which is pretty much his ceiling, I think he should be able to sneak into the top 25 easily but cracking the top 20 will be a challenge

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Loudon that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Kyle Busch ($11,000 DK, $12,500 FD)

Ross Chastain ($9,800 DK, $11,500 FD)

Erik Jones ($7,300 DK, $7,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Brad Keselowski ($6,900 DK, $6,000 FD)

Historically this has been a fantastic track for Keselowski, but this isn't the same Kes we are used to. His average finish at similar tracks is 18th, and he routinely finishes behind his teammate Chris Buescher. Brad starts 9th on Sunday, and I only expect him to move backward.

Pitstop Picks

12-28 (-11.6u)

Truex Jr is the favorite for the race, drivers starting on the front row don't usually win but they do finish well, he could be the second place driver. Everyone is talking about Kyle Busch this week so he is an obvious contender but both 23xi drivers are starting in the top 10 plus all four Joe Gibbs drivers are starting in the top 20.

I don't love him for much this week but I have to price enforce Stenhouse here. There is no chance he is winning but I feel like I have to price enforce this 20-1 top 10 prop. Stenhouse does have two top 10 finishes in his last 12 races here and I am starting to love these high payout low success bets.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Ambetter 301 cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!