LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Ally 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Ally 400🏁

After a forgettable race at Sonoma, I hope everyone enjoyed their off weekend and was able to spend some time with their families. That was the last break of the season so now the grind really begins. This Sunday the NASCAR Cup Series is traveling to Nashville Superspeedway in Lebanon, TN for the Ally 400. The track is a relatively flat 1.333 mile, concrete, D-shaped oval. There were no shortage of cautions in the previous two races here and this will be the first night race so there is an extra layer of uncertainty heading into this weekend.

Rain is in the forecast for the morning as well as the late night, so it will be interesting to see if NASCAR will be able to hit their window on Sunday. There is a real possibility of a rain shortened race.

_{On to Nashville!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 300 laps will be run this week, and 75 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 260 laps should run under the green flag for 117 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

Nashville is a slightly smaller track than your standard cookie cutter 1.5 miler so there are a handful more laps than usual but our strategies should be similar. Each of the previous two races had one major dominator. The inaugural race had one driver completely run away with the victory while last year’s race had a major dominator and two minor dominators that all made the perfect lineup. Each of the two major dominators started in the top 5 and I expect that trend to continue on Sunday.

Our place differential drivers are where things get interesting. The past two races have shown that fast drivers can make big moves at Nashville and they can even lead a significant portion of laps. Our only driver starting in the top 10 should be our dominator but the other drivers in our lineup should ideally have top 10 finishing potential. Last season’s race was strange because the perfect lineup was a stars and scrubs build with three high priced drivers and three sub $7000 drivers who didn’t finish particularly well. Judging by qualifying I don’t expect that to be the optimal build for this race but I do think a top 10 finish should be our goal.

Bargain basement drivers finishing in the top 10 is a stretch this season but I do see a scenario where at least one such driver can make the perfect lineup. I think the double basement strategy that worked last season is a bit of a stretch but I would comfortably fit one inexpensive driver in my tournament lineups.

Stage 1: 90 Laps

Stage 2: 95 Laps

Stage 3: 115 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Christopher Bell ($9,400 DK, $11,500 FD)

Most of the big names qualified pretty well on Saturday so there are no real obvious cash safe place differential drivers for this race. Bell starts 22nd on Sunday and is the highest priced driver starting outside the top 20 but that just means is he primed for a ton of place differential. Chris didn’t show much short run speed in practice but he did post top seven 15 and 20 lap averages which is very encouraging for his long term success. He finished in the top 10 in both races at Nashville and he started as far back as 25th. This season he has been exceptional at similar tracks with top 6 finishes at Phoenix, Richmond and Dover. Bell is one of those drivers that I always think is talented but perpetually overpriced but this is a race where he can provide significant value.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($7,300 DK, $6,800 FD)

The slate must be completely shot if I am recommending Stenhouse in cash but here we are. Ricky starts 28th on Sunday but brings top 15 potential to the table, which would be more than enough to pay off his salary (in fact a top 20 would probably be good enough for cash games). Stenhouse’s average finish here is 11th and his average finish at similar tracks this season is 18th. Combine that with his top twenty 15 and 20 lap averages on Saturday and all signs are pointing to rare cash game opportunity for Ricky.

Tournament Targets

Ross Chastain ($9,600 DK, $10,000 FD)

Chastain, Reddick and Truex seem to have the cars to beat on Sunday. Ross had the best car over 15 and 20 laps on Saturday so I am trusting him to use his clean air advantage to protect his lead early until he can use his long run speed advantage. Chastain has been very successful at Nashville so far with two top 5 finishes with positive place differential. His top three finishes at Richmond and Dover this season are also very encouraging. As always, rostering a driver on the pole is a high risk proposition because he has zero place differential potential. Chastain will have to run away with this race for this play to work out but that is firmly in the realm of possibilities.

Ryan Preece ($7,100 DK, $5,200 FD)

Preece was a staple of my bargain basement picks in previous years but with is equipment upgrade came a price increase. I have been hesitant to rostering his this season but my models love him this weekend so that is enough to land him in the risky spot of the week. Preece starts 25th on Sunday but he has an average projected finish of 14th according to my models. While that might seem like a stretch, he has a finish of 12th at Phoenix and 15th at Darlington so far this season. He ran the 15th best 15 lap average on Saturday and only needs a 16th place finish to hit value. I would not commit a significant amount of ownership to Preece on Sunday but he should definitely be in our tournament player pool.

Bargain Basement

Michael McDowell ($5,800 DK, $4,500 FD)

McDowell is cheap and starting 33rd, he is practically a free square. Michael has an average finish of 15 at Nashville and an average positive place differential of 5.5 here as well. His average finish of 20th at similar tracks this season is just another reason to plug McDowell in as our bargain basement driver in any situation.

Other Driver To Consider

Here are three more drivers I like at Nashville that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Martin Truex Jr ($10,900 DK, $13,500 FD)

Erik Jones ($6,200 DK, $5,800 FD)

Kyle Busch ($11,200 DK, $12,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Justin Haley ($5,600 DK, $4,000 FD)

This is a combination of a no-brainer and a low hanging fruit but Haley is way over his head starting third on Sunday. He will fall outside the top 10 pretty quickly and there is a legitimate chance that he scores negative points. There is no reason to be cute, we will be rolling out a full fade on Haley on Sunday.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 8-20 (-8.25 u)

Elliott is in a must win situation and this is a track where he has been relative successful. Truex runs well at Nashville but finished poorly so we are looking to capitalize on that with a plus money H2H.

Blaney, Wallace and Logano all have higher average finishes at Nashville than Bell and we have already established that passing is not a major concern here. Bell’s major concern is his starting position and I don’t think that is huge factor this weekend.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-3 (3.85 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Ally 400 and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!