LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Ally 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Ally 400🏁

Long green flag runs, a rain delay, wet weather tires, and an overtime finish was the perfect combination of chaos last weekend at Loudon. Mother Nature is stealing all of the headlines this weekend, and the NASCAR Cup Series travels to Nashville Superspeedway in Lebanon, TN, for the Ally 400. The track is a 1.33 mile, modestly banked, concrete tri-oval. The track isn’t exactly flat, it isn’t really short, and it isn’t asphalt, so it poses a unique challenge for our drivers. After three Cup races here, there is strong data to suggest that Kansas is the closest comp to Nashville, but we will be taking a look at Dover, Texas, and Las Vegas as other similar tracks.

As mentioned previously, the weather may be an issue again on Sunday. There is rain in the forecast for the late morning and early afternoon. The talk early in the week was about how hot Sunday was supposed to be but the rain may have tampered that a touch, instead of mid 90s temps its looking more like high 80s. Fatigue is sure to play a factor for some drivers on Sunday but once the rain clears we should be able to complete the entire race.

_{On to Nashville!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 300 laps will be run this week, and 75 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 265 laps should run under the green flag for 119.75 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

Like Loudon, Nashville has an abnormally low number of laps for a short track but more laps than the traditional cookie cutter 1.5-mile track. Also, similarly, a single dominator is possible, but over the three Cup races here, one featured a single dominator, and two races had two dominators. Four of the five dominators started in the top 10, and each of the last two drivers who started on the pole led at least 99 laps. Starting position is paramount at Nashville, and I would suggest rostering at least two drivers starting in the top 10, which could lead to a significant chunk of laps. Last year’s race saw all the stars aligned, and three drivers in the perfect lineup started in the top 10 and led at least 50 laps, but I expect that to be more of an anomaly than an actionable trend.

Place differential drivers have proven to be slightly more dependable, and they can make big moves in Nashville. I am discounting the 2022 race because the perfect lineup was insane, but we should look for at least 5 drivers that can finish in the top 10. The drivers can start as far back as the 30s but it seems like they will most likely come from our 2 dominators starting in the top 10 and then three more drivers starting 20th or worse. Drivers starting in the teens seem to be stuck in a weird no man’s land, but if you think they have top 10 potential, it wouldn’t be the worst idea to give them a shot.

Bargain basement drivers are going to have another hard time this weekend. While there may be some opportunity for a select few drivers, there will be a ton of passing on Sunday, and these drivers don’t generally have the equipment to make meaningful enough moves.

Stage 1: 90 Laps

Stage 2: 95 Laps

Stage 3: 115 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Ross Chastain ($9,000 DK, $12,500 FD)

There are not a ton of obvious place differential candidates this weekend, but Chastain has significant upside from his 20th place starting position. Chastain has two top 5 finishes here over his last two races, including a win in 2023, in which he led 99 laps from the pole. His average finish at similar tracks over the last two seasons is 10.6, with a positive average place differential. In practice on Saturday, Ross posted the 4th best single lap speed and 3rd best 5 lap average. While he will be popular on Sunday, and he needs a top 9 finish to score 5x value, Chastain is still one of the best cash options in the field.

AJ Allmendinger ($6,500 DK, $5,500 FD)

While I usually save model predicted plays for the risky section, AJ starts 28th on Sunday and is cheap enough that I feel like we can take a stab at him in cash. Allmendinger has an average finish of 14.5 in his two races at Nashville with a positive average place differential. While he ran in the faster group during practice on Saturday, his 5th best 5 lap average is very encouraging. Allmendinger might not be able to get into the top 10, making him a reach for the perfect lineup, but I think he has a great chance to land a top 15, which would be great for cash.

Tournament Targets

Denny Hamlin ($10,300 DK, $13,500 FD)

Hamlin is starting on the pole this Sunday, and that is the best place to be in Nashville. Denny is one of my dominator picks for this race, and he should also be one of the favorites to win the race. Hamlin has had moderate success here, with an average finish of 4.5 over the last two races. His average finish of 7.8 at similar tracks over the last two seasons is also encouraging, considering that includes a win this season at Dover and a 5th place finish at Kansas. I fully expect Hamlin to lead the entire first stage and hang out inside the top 5 for the entire race.

Ryan Blaney ($9,300 DK, $10,000 FD)

Blaney is my risky player of the week because he has a rocketship this weekend, but it all depends on if he can stay out of his own way. Ryan has two accidents here in three races, and he finished 3rd in the one race he finished. Blaney has a handful of top 5 finishes with positive place differential at similar tracks over the last two seasons but has also run into his fair share of trouble. Ryan starts 18th on Sunday, keeping him out of dominator contention and a little too close to be a safe cash play. So many things can go wrong about this call, making Blaney a great tournament option.

Bargain Basement

John H Nemechek ($5,800 DK, $4,000 FD)

There is nothing great to say about this price range again this weekend. Nemechek won the Xfinity race on Saturday but I don’t expect a repeat on Sunday, John starts 35th this weekend therefore he can’t lose any points, which is exciting, but his upside is considerably low. A top-25 finish may be his ceiling, which is even a stretch.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Nashville that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Bubba Wallace ($7,800 DK, $7,200 FD)

Kyle Larson ($10,500 DK, $14,000 FD)

Todd Gilliland ($6,700 DK, $5,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Austin Dillon ($5,700 DK, $4,500 FD)

Dillon starts 11th on Sunday, two spots ahead of his average Nashville finish over the last two races. While I understand if people think Dillon is a good “starts well/finishes well” option this weekend, there is no indication that strategy works at Nashville. Dillion has been a dumpster fire this season, and I don’t expect it to change on Sunday.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 14-20 (-0.7 u)

I love a good anybody, but X bet. Hamlin starts on the pole, and everyone is very excited about Bell, but many Chevys have a great chance of winning this Sunday. Larson, Chastain, and Elliott all have great recent form and track history. Pickingings are slimmer on the Ford side, but Blaney, Keselowski, and Buescher always find themselves in the mix when you least expect them. When the odds work out like this, it’s a fun/silly way to be 80% of the field to win at plus money.

There is no shortage of plus money H2Hs this weekend but it all depends on your risk tolerance. Bell has been very consistent at Nashville with three finishes between 7-9. Elliott ran into trouble in the track’s inaugural race but has two top 4 finishes in the next gen era, including a win. Chase has proven he has been able to race through the field here so his starting position does not concern me.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 9-8 (+13.4 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For comments on every driver and additional stats, check out the Ally 400 cheatsheet

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