Written by 2020 FWBC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Ally 400 🏁

Happy Father's Day everyone! I hope you guys get to spend the morning relaxing at the beach, afternoon building lineups, and evening taking screenshots...that's my plan at least. Whatever you guys decide to do I hope you enjoy yourselves. NASCAR will be visiting its second new(ish) track of the season on Sunday for the Ally 400. The race will take place at Nashville Superspeedway in Nashville, TN. The track is a 1.33-mile concrete, D-shaped oval. This will be the first Cup race at Nashville but NASCAR did run Truck and Busch (Xfinity) races here until 2011 so some of the older drivers do have some experience here but I would take it with a grain of salt. This is another wonky week where qualifying doesn't occur until 11:05 Sunday morning so I am writing this without knowing the starting lineup. As of now, I am planning on doing a stream on Twitch/Twitter around 1 pm* on Sunday to give post-qualifying thoughts.

*The time may be flexible depends on my children's moods, I will keep everyone updated in chat.

On to Nashville!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 300 laps will be run this and 75 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 265 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 119.25 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

We get an extra special puzzle to solve this weekend because not only do we get same-day qualifying, there is literally no historical data to base our lineup construction on. A couple of notes before we begin, once qualifying happens there is a chance this entire article becomes moot, the video will be very important this week and I will also try to post the major changes in chat also. Secondly, the projected finishing position posted in the cheatsheet is independent of the qualifying position so that projection will not change on Sunday.

I am going to attack this slate the same way I did the COTA slate, do the research before qualifying, identify the drivers I like, and then note down the lowest starting position I would be willing to roster each driver. This will cut down on some of the craziness between qualifying and the race and help identify drivers we can really key in on. Moving on to the lineup construction itself, I would expect this to be a one to two dominator race. Passing the leader wasn't easy in the Truck and Xfinity race but big moves were made throughout the field so I would expect the dominators to start in the top 10. The drivers are running the 750 HP package on Sunday so there will be a major speed discrepancy between the fast cars and the backmarkers so I expect the bargain basement drivers to be lapped pretty quickly. Besides our dominators, we should focus on drivers starting between 15 and 30 who can pick up 7 or more spots and finish in the top 15.

Stage1: 90 laps, Stage 2: 95 laps, Stage 3: 115 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kyle Larson ($11,800 DK, $14,000 FD)

Larson is in a world of his own right now and I am playing him until he cools off. He was tied with Byron for the fastest single lap time in practice and also posted the best 5, 10, and 15 lap averages. He also has an average finish of 3.67 at the other 1+ mile tracks where the 750 HP package was run (Dover, Phoenix, and Darlington). Larson is the most expensive driver of the slate on both sites but that won't scare me off, he had a fast car on Saturday and will be looking to continue his winning ways on Sunday.

Ideal starting position: Anywhere in Nashville

Daniel Suarez ($6,300 DK, $6,000 FD)

Suarez has run some quality races this season and has excelled at 1.5-mile tracks as well as the 750 HP tracks with an average finish of 17.25 and 17.67 respectively. His practice times weren't great so that is something to take note of but he should have enough speed in the car to remain on the lead lap and then finish strong.

Ideal starting position: 25+

Tournament Targets

Alex Bowman ($9,300 DK, $9,500 FD)

Bowman posted a top 10 single lap speed and the 7th best 5 lap average in practice on Saturday. He has a win at a 750 HP intermediate this season (Dover) but struggled at the other two. Bowman is a much better driver at steep tracks and with 14 degrees of banking, Nashville does not qualify as one of those so his ownership may be depressed making him a sneaky tournament option.

Ideal starting position: 7+

Ross Chastain ($7,600 DK, $6,800 FD)

Chastain is very expensive this weekend but his practice speeds have lived up to his salary. He posted the 7th best single lap time and the 4th best five-lap average which is insane. Ross has been surprisingly good at 750 HP intermediates this season with an average finish of 16.33 but not as good at 1.5 mile tracks. I don't know if he will be able to run 300 laps with top 5 speed but he has shown he has a good enough car to be a top 10 contender on Sunday.

Ideal starting position: 18+

Chris Buescher ($7,400 DK, $7,000 FD)

Buescher is a driver I enjoy writing up, so why is he the risky play of the week? Well for one, he is slightly more expensive than I feel comfortable paying for him, and secondly, he is not so much the risky play of the week and more of a model anomaly. He is projected to finish 10th, the highest projected finish for any driver under $8700 and representing a possibly major value. He has run very well at intermediate tracks this season, with an average finish of 9.25 and an average positive place differential of 10.25. He had a 9th place finish at Darlington so he can run the 750 HP package too, combined with his impressive practice times Buescher could be in line to have a big race.

Ideal starting position: 13+

Bargain Basement

Corey Lajoie ($5,700 DK, $4,000 FD)

A case can be made to avoid this range entirely but we will make that decision after qualifying. Lajoie has the best ceiling but he is also a risk to qualify the best. His average finish of 25 at 750 HP intermediates is surprising and probably his ceiling.

Ideal starting position: 30+

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Nashville that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Chase Elliott ($10,700 DK, $13,500 FD)

Joey Logano ($8,900 DK, $11,000 FD)

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($7,200 DK, $6,600 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Brad Keselowski ($9,500 DK, $10,300 FD)

Keselowski always seems to dominate races where I fade him but I will take that risk. He has not been great at any type of intermediate track, 750 or 550 HP. He sometimes can sneak some laps led with an oddball pit strategy and get lucky with a caution but other than that he is not someone I am interested in on Sunday.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat! Don't forget a special race day breakdown on Twitch and Twitter, check the chat for more details.

Be sure to download the Ally 400 Cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!

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