🔥Written by 2020 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Ally 400🏁

I hope everyone enjoyed their Father's Day weekend, I know I spent the week off by adding our third son to the family. This week, NASCAR is returning to the Music City for the Ally 400. Nashville Superspeedway, located in Lebanon, TN, is a 1.333 mile concrete oval. The track isn't exactly short and has the same 14-degree banking as Richmond so it qualifies as a flat track. The tracks that were used last year as similar comps were Phoenix, Richmond, and Dover (because of the concrete surface) but I added Darlington and Kansas to my similar tracks pool because they were highly correlated last season. Tires have been a major issue this season the left side tires were used at Kansas, Texas, and Dover this year, and the right sides were run at Kansas, Texas, Charlotte, Darlington, Fantana, and Las Vegas. The race last year had an average green flag run of 20 laps so it was caution filled, to begin with, hopefully, we can avoid that a bit this time around.

Naturally, there is rain in the forecast on Sunday, with the highest chance of rain right when the race is set to begin so it will be a waiting game to see if we can get this race in on Sunday.

On to Nashville!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 300 laps will be run and 75 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 250 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 112.5 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

We only have one race to go off of at Nashville and Larson ran away with it after starting 5th. Chase Elliott was able to lead a handful of laps but was disqualified after the race so everyone that finished 9th or worse was credited with a finishing position one spot better than they actually finished. I don't expect this to be a single dominator race, especially due to the tire situation this season but drivers have also reported that it is very difficult to pass here. I think the move is to roster two fast drivers starting in the top 10 and hope they can both finish well and soak up some laps led.

Since there was only one dominator last year, there were 5 place differential drivers in the perfect lineup. All five drivers started 14th or worse and finished in the top 9. While I don't expect that trend to continue, there are some very fast drivers starting towards the rear of the field so I believe some cars will make big moves. If passing is as hard as some drivers have described, this might be a good place to take a chance on some bargain bin drivers that qualified outside of our comfort zone that may be able to hold on to their track position and finish well. I believe the optimal build will be two drivers starting in the top 10, three-place differential drivers that finish in the top 10, and one bargain-basement driver that finishes in the top 20.

Stage 1: 90 laps, Stage 2: 95 laps, Stage 3: 115 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kyle Busch ($11,000 DK, $13,500 FD)

Busch crushed us last week but that will not scare me away from him on Sunday. Kyle had the second best single lap time in practice on Friday and top three 5, 10, 15, and 20 averages in the same practice but ran into the wall during qualifying Saturday and will now start 36th. Busch was not impressive here last year but has four top 9 finishes in the five similar tracks outlined about. I do not expect Kyle to dominate by any means but any finish inside the top 10 will guarantee a spot in the perfect lineup.

Chase Briscoe ($8,100 DK, $8,000 FD)

I know this is the cash game segment, but the words chalk and Bubba Wallace are two things I never want to hear. Briscoe, however, should go considerably under owned from his 28th place starting position because he starts two spots further forward than Wallace and is also $1600 more expensive. Briscoe won at Phoenix earlier this season and has two other top 13 finishes at similar tracks. He ran the 11th best 5 lap average and 17th best 10 lap average, both need to be better but I still believe he has top 15 potential.

Tournament Targets

Kyle Larson ($11,600 DK, $14,000 FD)

It is going to be very difficult to afford both Kyles this weekend but I truly believe Larson is the most likely dominator for this race. Larson is starting third and was significantly faster in practice in every category compared to both drivers in front of him. Everyone is talking about his utter domination here last season, but this year has been different entirely. Larson had trouble at Darlington and Phoenix but was very strong at Richmond, Dover, and Kansas, which is important because this exact tire combination was used at Kansas. Larson is still looking for his first run-away performance of the year and this Sunday is shaping up to be a fantastic opportunity.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($7,100 DK, $7,000 FD)

Stenhouse Jr is starting 25th on Sunday and is primed for a top 15 finish. He finished 6th here last season, picking up 8 spots in the process. He is also coming off of three straight top 8 finishes at similar tracks. He wasn't overly impressive at practice on Friday so I wouldn't devote a huge amount of ownership to Stenhouse but he provides tournament-winning upside at a discounted price.

Bargain Basement

Corey Lajoie ($5,000 DK, $3,500 FD)

Lajoie is the exact type of driver I was describing earlier that was starting outside our comfort zone that could provide upside. He starts 22nd on Sunday and I think a top 15 is a reasonable expectation. Although he only turned in the 19th place single lap time in practice he was in the top 15 for the 5, 10 and 15 lap averages. His performance at similar tracks is more boom or bust than we would prefer with two top 19 finishes and three finishes 31st or worse.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Nashville that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Aric Almirola ($7,500 DK, $7,700 FD)

Tyler Reddick ($8,900 DK, $9,500 FD)

Austin Dillon ($7,000 DK, $6,800 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Ryan Blaney ($9,500 DK, $10,000 FD)

Blaney's accident last year threw my model for a loop with his projections but I still expect him to be an underwhelming play. He starts 6th on Sunday and didn't really give us any reason to believe we would improve on that much. He only had the 8th best single lap time on Friday and was between 5-9 in the 5,10,15 and 20 lap averages. I don't expect Blaney to blow up any lineups I just don't see his path to the perfect lineup.

Pitstop Picks

11-23 (-9.1u)

We love Almirola at short flats. Nashville isn't short but the strategy played out fairly well last year so let's see if we can replicate the results. I will take Almirola at plus money for any reasonable H2H and this is the one offered by DK.

DK's algorithm hates Bowman in this race so you can get crazy odds on him to top 10 and top 5. I like groups in general and you never see a +500 option in a seemingly even group. I would have priced Reddick as the favorite because I think he is the most likely to win this but I cannot pass up the value on Bowman here. If you want a plus money H2H with Bowman he is +170 vs Byron, so you won't have to worry about a ceiling race for Reddick or Bell.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Ally 400 cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!