LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - AdventHealth 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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AdventHealth 400🏁

Only in 2025 would an oval produce more crashes than a superspeedway, but that is precisely what happened last weekend at Texas when the defending Cup Champion took home the checkered flag and punched his ticket to the postseason. This weekend, we are getting a second consecutive oval when the NASCAR Cup Series travels to Kansas Speedway in Kansas CIty, Kansas for the AdventHealth 400. Kansas is a 1.5-mile, banked, tri-oval that has produced some of the most entertaining races in the Next Gen Era. We are bound to hear ad nauseum the entire weekend about last year’s closest race, but considering the main characters from last year are starting on the front row on Sunday, we are already on our way to a treat.

Temperatures in the high 70s, a 5 % chance of rain, and minor cloud cover make for a perfect race weekend.

Not only is it perfect weather for a race, it’s also perfect weather for a Mother’s Day BBQ. Happy Mother’s Day the four females reading this and to all the guys… make sure to do something nice before the green flag drops.

_{On to Kansas!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 267 laps will be run this week, and 66.75 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 222 laps should run under the green flag for 99.9 possible DK points)

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

1) Look at the top 5 for a dominator. There will be at least one or two major dominators, and one will most likely start in the top 5.

2) We don’t need a top 10. Drivers can make big moves here, but surprisingly, they do not need to finish in the top 10 to make the perfect lineup. On average, only about four of the six drivers finished in the top 10.

3) The Bargain Basement is open. Inexpensive drivers are an option on Sunday. Even a double dip is on the table as long both drivers finish in the top 20.

Stage 1: 80 Laps

Stage 2: 85 Laps

Stage 3: 102 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kyle Larson ($11,000 DK, $14,000 FD): Larson won this race last year by the smallest margin in NASCAR history. He is starting on the pole beside the driver, and he inched out, but I expect him to dominate this year. Very few drivers can run away with a race like Larson, and I’m anticipating another bloodbath.

Ross Chastain ($8,700 DK, $10,000 FD): Chastain is very good here, with an average finish of 8.67. He starts 26th on Sunday and had a top-10 car in practice. Although he is having a down year so far, he won here last Fall, and his price makes him more than playable.

Alex Bowman ($7,800 DK, $8,500 FD): Kansas is one of Bowman’s best tracks on the schedule. He is coming off of five straight top 10 finishes here with an average positive place differential of 7.6. He is cheap and starting 21st, which is an excellent combination for cash.

Tournament Targets

Denny Hamlin ($10,200 DK, $12,500 FD): Hamlin might be the most consistent driver at Kansas, with an average finish of 3.67 in his last six races here. He starts 14th, and I could see a scenario where he capitalizes on a late caution to unseat Larson. There are plenty of big names starting ahead of him, but Denny’s place differential potential is really what draws me to him.

Brad Keselowski ($7,000 DK, $7,200 FD): Keselowski is starting 36th despite his solid practice times and his teammate’s front-row qualifying effort. Brad has been a bit snake-bitten, but I'm expecting a little luck and a little positive regression this Sunday.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,000 DK, $3,000 FD): Stenhouse Jr. is coming off two straight perfect lineup appearances, and I am hoping we can make it three in a row. Ricky starts 27th but has an average finish of 19.5 in his last six races here, with two top-12s. The spring race is much kinder to Stenhouse than the Fall, so let's see if we can keep that trend going.

Josh Berry ($7,200 DK, $7,500 FD): Berry is never one of my preferred drivers to write up, but with big names starting in the top 10 and big names starting in the 30s, I think he is going to be way overlooked. Berry has never really had much success at Kansas, but the combination of his low price and 38th-place starting position makes me want to cross my fingers and hope for a top-20.

Bargain Basement

Ty Dillon ($5,100 DK, $3,200 FD)

Ty starts 29th on Sunday and has proven to be capable of finishing around 20th. While that is not a great place differential, his price is so low, and the rest of the range is so terrible that it might actually work.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Kansas that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Austin Cindric ($7,500 DK, $7,000 FD)

Kyle Busch ($8,300 DK, $8,000 FD)

Bubba Wallace ($8,500 DK, $10,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Daniel Suarez ($6,800 DK, $6,000 FD)

Suarez is starting 8th on Sunday and while two of his three top 10 finishes this year have come on 1.5 mile tracks, he had the benefit of starting in the 20s and making his way up front. I’ll keep an eye on him at future cookie cutters but I think we can skip him this time around.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 28-40 (2.2 u)

2025 results: 11-11 (8.75 u)

Chastain is a monster at Kansas, and Gibbs is still working to get his season on track. Ty has made huge strides over the last couple of weeks, but Chastain was better last week, and I expect him to be better this week as well.

Bell starts in the top 10, so we just need him to hold on to his starting position. We have our work cut out for us with Bowman, but he has been a top 10 machine since the Next Gen Era. I try to stay away from parlays here, but I have been trying these out over the last few weeks and have had moderate success.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 11-15 (+11.45 u)

2025 Results: 1-2 (-1 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For additional stats, check out the  AdventHealth 400 Cheatsheet

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