LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Advent Health 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS and 2023(x3) FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Advent Health 400🏁

April provided a boring month of NASCAR races, and the new month doesn’t seem to be starting on the right foot. A late race caution caused a small amount of drama in an otherwise un-noteworthy Dover race last week, and this Sunday, the Cup Series travels to Kansas Speedway in Kansas City, KS, for the Advent Health 400. The track is a 1.5 mile, banked, tri-oval. While races at cookie-cutter 1.5-mile tracks have been fairly entertaining in the next-generation era, that is mostly due to Goodyear’s ongoing tire problems. I think of these races like eating vegetables, they are generally eh with a well flavored one every now and then.

The weather will be noticeably cooler this weekend, but there is almost zero chance of rain, which is exactly what we would like to see.

_{On to Kansas!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 267 laps will be run this week, and 66.75 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 220 laps should run under the green flag for 99 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

A surprising, albeit most likely unintentional, result of the next-generation car is the number of low-ceiling dominators. Clean air is king with this rules package, so passing for the lead is very difficult, but somehow there have only been two drivers in the last four races that led more than 100 laps, and the most laps a driver has led in a race since 2021 is 116. This a trend we are seeing at most of the 1.5 mile tracks over the past two seasons, the most dominant dominator in two years led 43% of laps. While the major dominator in each of the last four races started in the top 5, only one of those drivers went on to win the race. The rest of the laps were led by other drivers that started in the top 11. Our major dominator will most likely start in the top 5 and lead around 100 laps, but he probably won’t win, so he has to finish well to make the perfect lineup.

Each of the last four perfect lineups had at least one other driver who starts in the top 12 and can lead a handful of laps and possibly win. While I don’t expect a repeat of four top 10 drivers in a perfect lineup any time soon, this is the type of race track that can reward a heavily front-loaded lineup.

Our place differential drivers are in a precarious situation. For a driver to be viable by place differential alone they either have to finish in the top 5 or pick up at least 10 spots. That leaves a weird no-man’s land between starting spots 13-25 where drivers may have a nice race and pick up a chunk of spots but still miss the perfect lineup. This goes for our basement drivers as well, any non-dominator needs to either have top 5 potential or the ability to make a huge move. Going from 29th to 22nd might be nice, but that is not what we are looking for this weekend.

Stage 1: 80 Laps

Stage 2: 85 Laps

Stage 3: 102 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kyle Larson ($11,000 DK, $14,000 FD)

Larson is one of the most expensive drivers on both sites, but that will not stop me from loading up on him this weekend. Last season, Kyle was the major dominator in both races and managed to sneak into both perfect lineups. This year, he starts 4th, which gives him a slightly higher floor/ceiling combination. NASCAR names him the number 1 car in practice on Saturday, posting the 9th best single lap time, the very best 15-lap average, and top five 5 and 10-lap averages. Larson has an average finish of 4th here over the last four races and already has a win this season at a correlated track.

Brad Keselowski ($7,700 DK, $7,800 FD)

Keselowski starts 30th on Sunday and is a rare cash-safe play with tournament upside. Brad ran the 18th-best single-lap time and 14th-best 10-lap average in practice Saturday, but I am really impressed with his average finish of 16.75 over the last four races here. In two of those races, he picked up 10 or more spots, which is exactly what we are looking for in his position. I am not expecting a top 5 finish by Keselowski by any means, but if he picks up 12-13 spots, he will be in the conversation for the perfect lineup.

Tournament Targets

William Byron ($10,500 DK, $12,500 FD)

Byron got into the wall during qualifying, so he will be scored from 36th on Sunday, but due to an unapproved adjustment, he will be starting 38th. Byron has arguably been the best driver this season and has a massive place differential ceiling this weekend. During practice on Saturday, William turned in the second-best single-lap speed and the best 10 and 20-lap averages. Byron has been an absolute menace this entire season, and I expect him to make his way into the top 10 before the end of the first stage.

Chase Briscoe ($7,100 DK, $7,200 FD)

Yes, this is a borderline insane play, but let’s talk it out. Byron is expensive and almost a shoe in to make the perfect lineup if he stays clean. There is going to be at least one dominator who will also most likely be expensive. Our criteria for our place differential drivers is a top 5 finish or picking up 10 spots and considering Chase starts 10th on Sunday, we know which one I am hoping for. Briscoe has been surprisingly good at similar tracks this season, posting two top-10 finishes, and he showed top-10 speed in practice. My simulation model gives Chase about a 40% chance of making the top 10, and considering how tight pricing is for this race, and I like the ceiling he provides at a very low price. This is a very high-risk play for big tournaments and qualifiers because he is just about as likely to go negative as he is to make the perfect lineup.

Bargain Basement

Justin Haley ($5,100 DK, $2,500 FD)

The basement is a tough place to be this weekend. We need at least our punts to pick up at least 10 spots, which is not easy. Somehow, Haley has managed to make it into three of the last four perfect lineups at Kansas and I am praying for the improbable to repeat itself yet again.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Kansas that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Ryan Blaney ($8,600 DK, $9,500 FD)

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($6,600 DK, $5,500 FD)

Ty Gibbs ($9,300 DK, $10,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Christopher Bell ($10,000 DK, $11,000 FD)

Bell has started on the pole in two of the last four races at Kansas and has never led more than 37 laps nor finished better than 3rd. A combination of unforced errors and poor pit performance tends to cost Bell serious track position and I am not willing to trust him just yet.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 9-11 (0.35 u)

Not a great race for plus money H2H. Wallace is super high priced in DFS so I may get my exposure to him this way. The Toyotas are fast this weekend and Bubba is riding their wave a bit. I don’t particularly love what I see out of his car but Chase is still very hit or miss and my models give the edge to Wallace.

While everyone is clowning Bell for not sealing the deal from the pole, he is still very good here. Reddick and Hamlin may have a higher DFS ceiling but I love the value in the +350 number for Bell, I have him projected to finish third behind Larson and Byron.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 5-6 (+7.9 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For comments on every driver and additional stats, check out the Advent Health 400 Cheatsheet

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