LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - Advent Health 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

💬Join the LineStar NASCAR Chat for info from experts.

🔗Download the Advent Health 400 Cheat Sheet

Advent Health 400🏁

The only thing I was right about last week was the race getting pushed to Monday. Thankfully, it is a long season and we have another chance to make money this Sunday when NASCAR travels to Kansas Speedway in Kansas City, Kansas for the Advent Health 400. The track is a cookie-cutter 1.5 mile asphalt tri-oval with progressive banking. The most notable thing about the track is the hotel located on the grounds, but even that isn’t unique these days.

There is a small chance for a shower on Sunday but I don’t expect there to be any issue with completing the race. It looks like Goodyear has figured out the tire situation that plagued most 1.5 mile races last year so I wouldn’t be surprised if this was a fairly calm affair.

_{On to Kansas!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 260 laps will be run this week, and 65 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 220 laps should run under the green flag for 99 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

It is time to take a breather for a week and attack a cookie-cutter 1.5 mile oval. 260 laps is not a ton but dominators will be important on Sunday so that is where we want to start with our lineup construction. Every race here since 2016, excluding both 2020 events, has had precisely one driver that led more than 100 laps and all but two of those drivers made the perfect lineup. Starting on the pole is a very big advantage at Kansas and it is more than likely that the polesitter will lead a significant portion of laps. Historically there has been a secondary dominator that led 70-90 laps but recently that has not been the case, the non-dominator laps have been more spread out. A driver coming through the field and dominating the race is not unheard of at Kansas but it is not a highly probable outcome. Fast cars lead laps here, so whoever gets out front will be very hard to pass.

Since laps led have been more spread out recently, front-loaded lineups have been more successful at Kansas. Historically, one driver starting in the top 10 and five place differential drivers was the winning formula, but that might not actually be the case on Sunday. While I think a driver starting on the front row will be the primary dominator, in tournaments we are going to want to attempt to soak up all laps led, so a lineup with three for four top 15 drivers may not be the worst idea. In cash, I would stick to one or two top 10 drivers and focus on place differential to raise the floor of our lineup.

Kansas is not kind to the bargain basement. We are going to aim for all six drivers to finish in the top 20 so if we dabble in the basement the driver needs top 20 potential. That criteria alone wipes out the true back makers, but there are some interesting options in this range.

Stage 1: 80 Laps

Stage 2: 85 Laps

Stage 3: 102 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kyle Larson ($11,200 DK, $14,000 FD)

This is a brutal choice to make because all four drivers starting in the top 4 have been very good this season but I think Larson has the car to beat on Sunday. Kyle is starting second, next to William Byron, and he is a force to be reckoned with at Kansas. Larson has led more than 130 laps in two of his last four races here, once from the pole and again from 32nd. Kyle was faster than Byron in the single-lap, five-lap, ten lap and fifteen-lap averages in practice on Saturday but we all know clean air is king. If Larson can get the lead early this will be his race to lose.

Josh Berry ($7,700 DK, $7,500 FD)

Berry has never run a Cup race at Kansas, but he has been very successful this season at similar tracks this season filling in for Elliott/Bowman. Berry starts 29th on Sunday and seemed to have a car that performed better over the long run during practice on Saturday. At the three correlated tracks this season (Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Dover) Berry has an average finish of 16.33 and an average positive place differential of 7.67. I am looking for him to improve on those marks a little bit and I think a top 15 is well within reason, which would be more than enough to pay off his salary.

Tournament Targets

Christopher Bell ($10,200 DK, $10,500 FD)

Joe Gibbs Racing showed out during qualifying on Saturday, placing all four drivers inside the top 12, and Bell is the laggard of the bunch, starting 12th. That is OK though because Bell was the second-best car in practice, behind teammate Denny Hamlin, but he has the luxury of a lower price tag and more place differential opportunity. Christopher has had some success here in recent races, with two straight top 5 finishes and laps led in each of the last two. Bell also has top 6 finishes in each of the three correlated tracks this season. I don’t expect him to be the primary dominator, but a top 5 finish with laps led should be enough to get him into the perfect lineup.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,000 DK, $7,000 FD)

I love when I get to write up Stenhouse as my risky driver of the week, and here we are. Ricky starts 33rd, which isn’t inherently risky, but his increased price tag is not ideal, and he needs to finish inside the top 20 to be in consideration of the perfect lineup, which could be a tall task. Stenhouse was not particularly impressive in practice and his track history has been delightfully boom or bust with a top finish of 8th and a bottom finish of 40th in his last six races at Kansas. it is possibly more likely that Stenhouse drives directly into the wall than him landing another top 10 finish, but I am much more confident in his top 20 potential, and that is all we will need out of him this weekend.

Bargain Basement

Michael McDowell ($5,900 DK, $5,000 FD)

McDowell’s price continues to fall, and I am not mad about it. He starts 23rd on Sunday and has an average finish of 17th over his last six races here. Our goal is to have all six drivers finish in the top 20, and McDowell provides the type of realistic ceiling we don’t normally see in this price range.

Other Driver To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Kansas that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Denny Hamlin ($10,700 DK, $12,000 FD)

Kyle Busch ($9,400 DK, $10,000 FD)

Kevin Harvick ($8,700 DK, $8,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Erik Jones ($6,300 DK, $5,500 FD)

Jones has been miserable at Kansas since leaving Joe Gibbs Racing. He starts 19th on Sunday, and I expect him to fall out of the top 20 fairly quickly. He ran a very slow 5 lap average, and think he will be a trap for people looking for value drivers.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 6-12 (-2.65 u)

We have had some success recently on plus money H2Hs so I keep rolling with them. Reddick loves to crash at Kansas, and Byron is having a career season so far. I fully expect a top 5 finish from Byron on Sunday so any slip by Reddick and he is toast.

Harvick has been incredibly consistent at Kansas in his career with a top 10 finish in 5/7, and this season SHR has been running much better, so I like him to be in the top 10 for most of the race. Wallace won here last Fall, but I think people will overvalue that result, and for whatever reason, Blaney and Logano are consistently disappointing here.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 2-2 (1.65 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Advent Health 400 and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!Noco