🔥Written by 2020 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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Advent Health 400🏁

Darlington provided a controversial finish to an otherwise chaotic race and we may be in store for more of the same this weekend when NASCAR travels to Kansas Speedway in Kansas City, KS for the Advent Health 400. The track is a 1.5 mile progressively banked tri-oval that tore up left rear tires in practice. It will be interesting to see how the field will manage the unexpected tire issues; what was once a relatively uneventful race could have some additional fireworks. To add an extra layer of anxiety to the race, rain is in the forecast for Sunday so a delay or rain-shortened race is a possibility.

On to Kansas!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 267 laps will be run and 66.75 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 232 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 104.4 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

We are going to start our lineups a little different this weekend because a solid trend has emerged so far this season and I don't want it to be overshadowed on Sunday. We have seen a variety of unexpected dominators in the first third of the season, but chalky place differential drivers have actually been fairly predictable. From the very beginning, I have tried to champion a strategy that focused on going very overweight on high upside place differential plays and then having at least some exposure to each possible dominator. This approach could very well be optimal again on Sunday, where three drivers that have top 15 upside are starting in the bottom three. I believe at least two, and possibly even all three of those drivers can make their way into the perfect lineup on Sunday and I would only fade them completely in massive GPPs or qualifiers.

While I know where two or three of my roster slots will be allotted, there will still be a need for at least 1 dominator. Eleven of the last twelve races at Kansas has had at least 1 driver that led 70 or more laps and seven of those races had a secondary dominator that led 70 laps but less than the primary dominator. Thirteen of those eighteen dominators made it into the perfect lineup, so just leading laps doesn't guarantee a useful fantasy performance. Kansas is also one of those tracks where a drivers can dominate from any starting spot and we have had drivers starting 1st to 32nd lead a significant number of laps in the past twelve races. It would seem that an unusually high amount of pole sitters lead a significant number of laps but the other drivers starting in the top 10 do not get any help.

Once we get our two popular place differential drivers and to potential dominators, we will want to finish off our lineups with drivers who can pick up at least 10 spots. These drivers won't have to finish too well, they just need to make big moves.

Stage 1: 80 laps, Stage 2: 85 laps, Stage 3: 102 laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Chris Buescher ($6,700 DK, $5,200 FD)

Chris may not be the most exciting pick in the world but starting 35th, he is a great driver to build a cash team around. Buescher is my favorite pick of the the three drivers starting in the rear (Logano, Buescher, Stenhouse Jr) because of his price, track history and performance at similar tracks this season. Somewhat surprisingly, my model gives Buescher the highest projected average finish and highest ceiling of those three drivers. He has been arguably the most consistent driver with five top 16 finishes in his last seven races here and he has also been the best drivers at similar tracks this season with an average finish of 12th (Logano and Stenhouse both have an average finish at Las Vegas/Phoenix/Dover of 17). Buescher will only need a 21st place finish to reach 5x but I believe his average projected finish of 17th is a more realistic target.

Joey Logano ($9,600 DK, $10,000 FD)

Logano is another driver starting in the bottom three that I will be using as a building block for cash games. He and Buescher will both be moving to backup cars on Sunday but that will not be a problem at all considering he will be scored from 34th anyway. Logano won in a controversial fashion last Sunday and is actually one of those elite drivers that will underwhelm when he is stuck in traffic, not slice through it like a hot knife through a stick of butter. His solid practice times give me confidence that he should be able to make his way to the top 20 fairly easily but I think he may struggle to get into the top 10. When considering the price and name recognition, I still believe Buescher is the best play of the bunch but I think Logano is a better cash option while I like Stenhouse in tournaments.

Tournament Targets

Christopher Bell ($8,400 DK, $8,200 FD)

Bell looked like he was captaining a rocket ship on Saturday and I am looking for him to carry that speed into Sunday (or Monday). Not only did Christopher capture the pole, he also ran the fastest 5 and 10 lap averages in practice, indicating he has speed over the short and long run. Nine of the last twelve pole sitters went on to lead at least 70 laps and eight of those drivers landed in the perfect lineup. Bell's Kansas history has been solid but unremarkable in his young Cup career, with two top 10 finishes in four races. He also has two top 10s at similar tracks this season but is still in search of his first win. Bell is not a driver we would normally include in a dominator pool but this is 2022 and we need to adapt to this everchanging sport.

Kevin Harvick ($8,700 DK, $9,000 FD)

Harvick may get lost in the shuffle on Sunday and that is what makes him a great tournament option. He starts 23rd, eleven spots ahead of Logano, but not close enough to the front to be a highly probable dominator so I am expecting Harvick to go wildly under-owned. Kevin have an average finish of 5.5 in his last six races at Kansas and in the fall of 2019 he raced from 40th to 9th. A top 10 finish for Harvick would outscore a top 16 finish for Logano and DK and my model predicts an average finish of 9.8 for Harvick vs 20.1 for Logano. Overall I think Harvick is a great place differential option for tournament lineups that can also be used in balanced builds for cash if needed.

Bargain Basement

Todd Gilliland ($4,900 DK, $3,500 FD)

Qualifying jumbled up this price range pretty good but Gilliland is starting 31st and he is cheap so you can't really argue with that. We are aiming to have all drivers pick up at least 10 spots so that eliminates almost half of this price range and with the problems we saw in practice, it is not crazy to believe there may be some attrition to this race, helping Gilliland make his way through the field.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Kansas that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Kyle Larson ($11,100 DK, $14,000 FD)

William Byron ($9,900 DK, $11,500 FD)

Ross Chastain ($9,700 DK, $11,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Aric Almirola ($7,200 DK, $6,200 FD)

Is this track short? No. Is this track flat? No. Ok I'm out on Almirola. He is starting 7th and only has one top 10 finish in his last six races at Kansas. He ran well in Vegas this year but that is just about it and I am not going to expect miracles this weekend.

Pitstop Picks

Pretty much the only thing I won last week were those two props.

8-18 (-8.55u)

This almost feels like cheating considering the terrible odds they are offering on Logano, Cindric and Briscoe. I love Harvick at even money for a top 10 here. As mentioned earlier, he has an average finish of 5.5 in his last 6 with no finishes outside the top 10 in that time and has two top 10 finishes at similar tracks this season. This will be one of my favorite bets of the race.

I can't believe the line is so close. Wallace has one finish better than 18th in his last six races here and Buescher only has two finishes worse than 18th in the same time frame. Buescher has also beaten Wallace head to head at Vegas, Phoenix and Dover this season.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the Advent Health 400 cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!