LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - 4EVER 400

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS and 2023(x3) FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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4EVER 400🏁

Last weekend, Kyle Larson punched his ticket into the Championship Four with a dominant victory in Las Vegas. This Sunday, the remaining seven drivers will be looking to lock up an automatic bid into the championship race when NASCAR travels to Homestead-Miami Speedway in Homestead, FL for the 4EVER 400 presented by Mobile 1. The track is a banked, 1.502 mile, asphalt, oval with an unforgiving racing surface. Homestead was the venue for the championship race for eighteen seasons but was removed in 2020 so historical data is slightly skewed to favor the final 4 drivers of those seasons.

We could not have asked for any better weather this weekend. Temperatures in the 80s with almost 0% chance of rain are exactly what we want to see this time of year.

As a side note, good luck to everyone who made it into the final round of the Fantasy Racing World Championship. The final twelve players were able to travel to Miami for the race this week and will be in attendance as they sweat out their lineups.

_{On to Homestead!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 267 laps will be run this week, and 66.75 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 235 laps should run under the green flag for 105.75 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

Homestead is a weird track to look at because for the longest time, it hosted NASCAR’s Championship race, and generally the field stayed out of the final four driver’s way. Its first race as a mid-season track was post-COVID 2020, which was weird all by itself. In 2022, the track moved back into a playoff spot, and a non-playoff driver won it. All of that is to say there is no helpful trend to point out how this race will play out. Each of the remaining playoff drivers has a win at a similar track this season or a top finish of 2nd (Blaney and Bell). That means these drivers know what it takes to win at 1.5 mile tracks this season, and any one of them can run away with this race if given an opportunity. Races at Homestead generally have one dominator, but a two dominator race is not out of possibility. I would structure every lineup with at least two playoff drivers as dominators. Due to their elevated price tags, I wouldn’t make more than a handful of three playoff driver lineups.

Although cautions are relatively limited here, there is no shortage of passing at Homestead, so our next priority will be place differential drivers. It is not uncommon for drivers starting in the 20s to make it into the top 10, so we will want to look for three drivers that can pick up a decent amount of spots and finish in the top 10. A top 15 finish isn’t the worst thing in the world, depending on price/place differential, but a top 10 finish should be our goal.

The bargain basement can serve a purpose this weekend, but only in 2/3 dominator lineups. A top 15 finish for all 6 drivers is our goal this weekend, and most of the basement drivers have a very limited ceiling. Doubling up on a $6,000-$7,000 driver may be a better move than dropping all the way down to the basement.

Stage 1: 80 Laps

Stage 2: 85 Laps

Stage 3: 102 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Joey Logano ($8,500 DK, $7,800 FD)

Logano is an “eat your vegetables” type of pick this Sunday. There is nothing really flashy or exciting about Joey, and he is out of the playoffs, but considering his discounted price tag and 36th starting position, he should be a cash game staple. Logano will need to race in his backup car this weekend, but if it has anywhere near the speed his primary car had in practice, there is nothing for us to worry about. He ran the 11th best single lap speed on Saturday and had top eight 10, 15, 20, and 25 lap averages. Elliott’s underperformance last weekend left a bad taste in a lot of chalk eater’s mouths, but I won’t let that scare me off of Logano this weekend.

Chris Buescher ($8,800 DK, $8,200 FD)

Buescher is the cheapest playoff driver this weekend, and he also has the worst starting position (17th) of the group. He struggled with his car in practice on Saturday and will depend on in-race adjustment keep his season alive. While all that sounds like a complete catastrophe, his success at similar tracks earlier this season and his owner/teammate’s new found success of late gives us a glimmer of hope on Sunday. Keselowski had a chance to win at Las Vegas last Sunday, and seems like he was able to bottle up that speed and bring it with him to Homestead. I am looking for the team to get Buescher’s car right on Sunday and at least get him into the top 10, which would be right around what we would need out of him in cash games.

Tournament Targets

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,000 DK, $11,500 FD)

Truex Jr. starts on the pole on Sunday, and it will be his race to lose. Martin didn’t have an overly impressive car during practice on Saturday, but we have seen time and time again that clean air is king at 1.5 mile tracks. Reddick will be the immediate threat to Truex at the start of the race, and Larson will be the bigger threat in the long run. Both of those drivers love to run the high line, right up against the wall, which is always a risky proposition at tracks where tire wear could come into play. I do not think Truex has the best car in the field, but he is a savvy enough veteran to capitalize on all of the advantages his starting position affords him, ideally on his way to victory lane.

Daniel Suarez ($7,500 DK, $6,800 FD)

Suarez is not a driver I look to often, but inexpensive drivers with top 10 potential are at a premium this weekend, so here we are. Suarez starts 14th on Sunday and was able to turn in a respectable single lap speed during practice despite his massive fall off over the long run. This season, Suarez succeeded at similar tracks, with top 10 finishes at Fontana, Las Vegas, and Michigan. This is not a cash safe play by any means, but if Daniel can figure out his long run speed he could sneak into the top 10 on Sunday, which is exactly what we need.

Bargain Basement

Austin Cindric ($5,900 DK, $4,000 FD)

What could go wrong with a boom or bust basement pick? Cindric starts 26th on Sunday and has actually had two top 12 finishes at similar tracks this season. He has also had a handful of finishes 30th or worse, which would be a lineup killer. Overall, Cindric has the highest ceiling of all the drivers in this price range, but also one of the lowest floors.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like at Homestead that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Aric Almirola ($6,900 DK, $5,200 FD)

Kevin Harvick ($8,100 DK, $7,400 FD)

Denny Hamlin ($11,000 DK, $12,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Bubba Wallace ($7,900 DK, $8,000 FD)

Wallace starts second on Sunday and has a very fast Toyota, but he qualified way over his head. He might be able to hang on to a top 10 by virtue of his speed and skill, but those playoff drivers are going to be gunning for the lead and they will pass Bubba in a hurry.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 13-46 (-21.75 u)

Hamlin has been fantastic at 1.5 mile tracks this season and has an average finish of 6.3 at Homestead over the last 3 races. The Toyotas are fast and I expect Hamlin to make his way towards the front of the field at some point during this race.

Larson’s Chevy is a huge favorite, but as a whole, Toyota has the best stable. As long as the field can keep Larson at bay, there are several Toyota’s that have a legitimate chance of winning this race.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

No poll this weekend due to lack of options.

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the 4EVER 400 and find me on Twitter. Good Luck!