🔥Written by 2020 FBWC and 2021 KoS qualifier @joejets19

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South Point 400 🏁

Last week's race at Bristol did not disappoint. Bumping, passing and a post race brawl closed out the first round of the playoffs and this week we get a bit of a breather before the insanity of Talladega and the Roval. The South Point 400 will take place this Sunday night at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in Las Vegas, NV. The track is a 1.5 mile progressively banked tri-oval. Tire wear is not generally an issue at Vegas and the weather forecast is absolutely beautiful. Overall this is shaping up to be a nice set up race for this segment of the playoffs.

On to Las Vegas!

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. This week, 267 laps will be run this and 66.75 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 235 laps should run under the green flag for a total of 105.75 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…) and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏁

It feels like forever since we have been at a 1.5 mile oval and I can't say I miss them. There will only be half as many laps Sunday as there were last Saturday, but dominators will be equally as important. Vegas usually sees one major dominator leading more than 100 laps and a minor dominator that leads 70+ laps. Dominators generally start in the top 10, only two of the 11 drivers that have led more than 70 laps in the last seven races have started worse than 10th (13th and 22nd to be exact). There is a decent chance this turns out to be a one dominator race, especially considering the high number of drivers who lead laps and then finish poorly to take themselves out of the perfect lineup **cough** Chase Elliott **cough**. We should aim to roster at least one and as many as three drivers starting in the top 10 that we think can lead laps. I would devote about 70% of my lineups to 2 top 10 drivers, 25% 1 top 10 driver and 5% 3 top 10 drivers.

Last Fall's race ended up with a super front loaded perfect lineup and I don't see that repeating itself. Besides the two top 10 drivers, I will be looking for two drivers starting in the teens that can finish in the top 10 and then two drivers starting 20+ that can finish in the top 15. Bargain basement drivers can be viable in cash, but in tournaments I want to focus on drivers with top 15 upside. If you find yourself rostering more drivers starting 20+ that is fine, just make sure they have a top 10 ceiling because we will need four or five drivers finishing in the top 10 to make it to the top of the leaderboard.

Stage 1: 80 laps, Stage 2: 80 laps, Stage 3: 107 laps

Competition Caution: Lap 25

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kyle Larson ($11,100 DK, $14,500 FD)

Larson finds himself in this section often and I am going to continue to roll with the hot hand. Kyle won at Las Vegas in the Spring from his 3th place starting position leading 103 laps and adding 57 fastest laps. For this race, Larson is on the pole and I think his previous race's performance is his floor. Kyle has been the best driver this season and he is incredibly fast at 1.5 mile tracks. This is a very tricky round of the playoffs and I think Larson will do everything he can to punch his ticket to the final 8 on Sunday.

Chris Buescher ($7,300 DK, $7,000 FD)

Buescher has been one of the most consistent drivers at Las Vegas in the last 7 races here with six finishes between 14-18 (the one outlier was a 9th place finish). All seven of those races have come with an average positive place differential of 9.29. Starting 25th, Buescher will need a top 20 for a respectable score and if he sneaks into the top 15 he will pay off his salary and then some. Chris's track history is only bolstered by his recent form at similar tracks, where he has an average finish of 12.6. All signs point to Buescher being a fantastic foundational target for cash games.

Tournament Targets

William Byron ($8,900 DK, $11,000 FD)

This feels like a risky play of the week but I keep finding myself drawn to Byron. He has been freakishly fast at 1.5 mile tracks this season and is starting 3rd on Sunday (where three drivers have led more than 70 laps in each of the last three races here). Byron does not have the best average finish but a deeper dive shows us that he actually has picked up stage points in 7 of the last 8 stages here...he has run well but hasn't finished well. I think Byron has an outside chance of leading 70+ laps and finishing in the top 5 which would be more than enough to land him in the perfect lineup due to his bargain of a price.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,800 DK, $6,700 FD)

Stenhouse Jr. starts 22nd on Sunday and definitely has top 15 upside. He has a positive place differential in four of his last six races here with three top 11 finishes. Stenhouse ran the 14th best green flag average this Spring at Vegas and has posted a top 20 total speed at similar tracks this season. Stenhouse is very cheap this weekend and has top 10 upside, exactly what we are looking for in tournaments.

Matt DiBenedetto ($8,200 DK, $8,000 FD)

DiBenedetto is starting 14th on Sunday and I think he presents a much better value on FD than DK. Either way, I think Matt will be drastically overlooked due to his starting position and salary. I don't think Matt has any chance of picking up any dominator points but all he needs is an 8th place finish to pay off his salary, a result well within his range of outcomes. Dibenedetto finished 2nd in both races last year which I think is a bit flukey but he has shown speed this year with the 12th best green flag average in the Spring race here and the 16th best total speed rank at similar tracks this season. Dibenedetto has an average finish of 10.8 at similar tracks and I think he has a good chance of a top 10 with a top 5 ceiling.

Bargain Basement

JJ Yeley ($5,400 DK, $2,000 FD)

Yeley has consistently outperformed his equipment this season and I expect that to continue on Sunday. He is starting dead last (38th) this weekend and actually has five straight races here with positive place differential. Which he is not in contention for a top 15 he does have a 17th place finish to his name and that is just about enough for me to consider him in cash.

Other Drivers To Consider

Here are 3 more drivers I like at Las Vegas that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Bubba Wallace ($6,700 DK, $6,700 FD)

Cole Custer ($7,100 DK, $5,700 FD)

Brad Keselowski ($8,700 DK, $9,700 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Denny Hamlin ($10,500 DK, $13,000 FD)

This is not for the faint of heart but I think Hamlin will go way over owned on Sunday. Denny's long-term history here has been completely terrible with three finishes of 15th or worse in his last six races here. Hamlin has been very fast at similar tracks this season but actually slower than Larson and Byron, both of which are starting ahead of him. Denny has run well here during his last two races but I think he will be held off on Sunday and held out of the perfect lineup.

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

Be sure to download the South Point 400 cheatsheet and find me on Twitter Good Luck!