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LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - 2025 Go Bowling at the Glen

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Check out the 2025 Go Bowling at the Glen Cheatsheet

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2025 Go Bowling at the Glen🏁

Iowa started with long green flag runs, but the entire second half of the race was an entire wreckfest. If the lower series is any indication, we may be in store for another ugly one when the NASCAR Cup Series travels to Watkins Glen International in Watkins Glen, NY for the 2025 Go Bowling at the Glen. The track is a 7-turn, 2.45-mile road course that is known to be much faster than most road courses because of its long straightaways and limited turns.

Even though we will have wet-weather tires this weekend, there is only a 10% chance of rain. There is no reason this race should not be completed on Sunday.

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 90 laps will be run this week, and 22.5 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 83 laps should run under the green flag for 37.35 possible DK points)

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

1) Play the front row(?). Like all road courses, there are very few dominator points available on Sunday. Where the Glen differs from other courses, despite he lack of dominator points a front row driver has been on each of the last three perfect lineups. That driver has only been on the major dominator in two of those three races, but we should earmark one of our six slots for one of the top two drivers.

2) Front-loaded lineups are key. Each of the last three perfect lineups had two drivers that started in the top 10, and two of those lineups did not have anyone that started 30th or worse. Drivers need to have the top 10 potential, no matter where they start.

3) The basement could be dicey this weekend. Last year’s race had two basement drivers, but that was an anomaly. Any basement driver starting 30th or worse is an autofade, if you want to a risk on a driver starting a little further forward good luck but they need to finish in at least the top 15 to make the perfect lineup.

Stage 1: 20 Laps

Stage 2: 20 Laps

Stage 3: 50 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Kyle Larson ($10,200 DK, $12,000 FD): Larson is a former winner at the Glen and until recently he was one of the best road racers on the circuit. Larson had a lightning-quick car in practice, but qualified 27th, which makes him the top place differential player in the field.

William Byron ($9,200 DK, $11,500 FD): Byron has a win and two poor finishes in his last three races here. This is a finishing position play because William had the fastest long run car in practice. He needs a top 5 to hit value, and while he may lack the consistency I prefer in cash drivers, it is very hard to argue with the speed in that car.

Tyler Reddick ($8,800 DK, $9,200 FD): Reddick has two top finishes in his last three races here. Starting 21st, Tyler has plenty of place differential potential, but his car was slightly concerning in practice. Reddick has proven at other road courses that he is a formidable road race,r and I expect that to translate to the Glen eventually.

Tournament Targets

Shane Van Gisbergen ($12,700 DK, $15,000 FD): I have faded SVG at every road course this year, and that has proven to be a terrible choice. Shane is playing chess on road courses when everyone else is playing checkers. While Van Gisbergen isn’t starting on the pole, he is on the front row, and that is enough for me to think he will make the perfect lineup.

AJ Allmendinger ($8,000 DK, $9,500 FD): AJ was the original road ringer that I loved to fade. He starts 18th on Sunday, and my model loves him, projecting a 5th place finish with an average simulated finish of 6th. Allmendinger got his poor finish out of the way last year, and his previous two results were 4th and 2nd. Allmendinger wasn’t impressive in practic,e but I still love his chances to crack the top 10.

Alex Bowman ($7,800 DK, $7,800 FD): Bowman is another driver that has has moderate success at other road courses but has not put it together at the Glen. Starting 7th, Alex is a very risky play this Sunday, but he is cheap enough that he will reach value as long as he doesn’t lose any spots.

Chase Elliott ($9,100 DK, $11,000 FD): Elliott is in the same boat as Larson, a once dominant road racer who has been struggling by their standards over the last couple of seasons. Elliott starts 20th on Sunday and showed a ton of long-run speed in practice on Sunday. While Reddick is cheaper and starts one spot further back, Chase is a solid tournament pivot.

Bargain Basement

Justin Haley ($5,700 DK, $3,800 FD)

Haley has the best starting position of any basement driver at 23rd. He ran the fastest single lap and 5-lap average in practice, but he does not have the best course history. I really am not very high on the basement this weekend, but Justin has the highest chance of making the perfect lineup.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like in Watkins Glen that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Denny Hamlin ($8,100 DK, $6,000 FD)

Chris Buescher ($9,000 DK, $8,800 FD)

Daniel Suarez ($7,100 DK, $6,800 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Kyle Busch ($7,700 DK, $8,000 FD)

Busch has not been the same since he moved from JGR, and starting 5th at the Glen is not the easiest place for Kyle to be this Sunday. Busch only has one finish better than 30th in his last three races here, and that could be catastrophic this weekend.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 28-40 (2.2 u)

2025 results: 19-25 (6.95 u)

Blaney is on the pole next to SVG. Earlier, we established that one front-row driver is likely to end up on the perfect lineup, while the other may not have the best race. My model predicts a 15th-place finish for Blaney, which would be a disaster. Allmendinger starts 18th but has a projected finish of 5th, which I think is high but would give him a clear advantage in this matchup.

I try my best not to involve the same driver in both bets, but here we are. I also try to choose bets that my model actually agrees with…and I broke that rule on this one as well. We already know my feelings about Blaney. I think SVG is going to get by him pretty easily early, and then he will fall off over the remaining 89 laps. Busch is my fade of the week, which means he may actually win for the first time since 2023. I honestly don’t see a scenario where Kyle finishes in the top 10, but I wouldn’t blame you if you wanted to fade me entirely and bet the opposite side of this one.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 11-15 (+11.45 u)

2025 Results: 5-8 (-0.59 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For additional stats, check out the 2025 Go Bowling at the Glen Cheatsheet

Find me on Twitter. Good Luck!