LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - 2025 Cup Series Championship

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Check out the 2025 Cup Series Championship Cheatsheet

2025 Cup Series Championship🏁

William Byron ran away with a very entertaining one-dominator race last Sunday in Martinsville to clinch his spot in the Championship race along with Denny Hamlin, Chase Briscoe, and Kyle Larson. The top finisher of those four will be crowned the Series Champion this Sunday when the Cup Series travels to Phoenix Raceway in Avondale, AZ. The track is a 1-mile, flat, dog-leg oval that was host to a seven-wide battle for the lead during Friday night’s truck race. The championship race is a unique experience because, for the most part, the Championship Four ride around up front, and everyone else just tries not to ruin their season. With the exception of Ross Chastain’s 2023 performance, the race winner has been the Championship winner, so we will be keeping our dominator pool very limited this weekend.

Not surprisingly, NASCAR’s unbelievable stretch of good weather will continue this weekend. The race is being held in a desert, so it will be predictably hot and dry, ideal racing weather.

On a personal note, I would like to thank everyone for following along this season. We had the longest stretch of consecutive race weekends in NASCAR history, and I appreciate the continued readership and engagement.

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 312 laps will be run this week, and 78 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 277 laps should run under the green flag for 124.65 possible DK points)

Finishing Position Points: The 40th-place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

1) It’s all about the Championship Four. As I mentioned earlier, the winner of the title is generally the winner of the race, and with three of the Championship Four starting in the top 3, it is tough to imagine a scenario where they don’t scoop up all the dominator points. Yes, there are other drivers with a better track history, but they usually stay out of the way.

2) There will be big moves. Phoenix has multiple racing grooves and could allow mixed pit strategies. Couple that with an overall sense of not wanting to affect the championship too much, and what we get is a ton of passing and very few blocks. Drivers with good track history and some speed in the car should be able to make their way through the field as long as they avoid self-inflicted wounds.

3) A basement double dip may be in order. The Championship Four are expensive, and we will want to roster at least two of them, so we will need to allocate our salary accordingly. If we opt for a one-punt build, they will only need to finish in the top 25; otherwise, we would need one basement driver to finish in the top 15 and the other in the top 25.

Stage 1: 60 Laps

Stage 2: 125 Laps

Stage 3: 127 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Chase Briscoe ($10,500 DK, $12,500 FD): Briscoe is the cheapest Championship Four driver and the only one that doesn’t start in the top 3. Chase’s 12th-place starting position translates to an automatic place differential because I expect him to be in the top 5 within the first stage, but from there, it’ll be an uphill climb. Briscoe will be my highest owned Championship driver, but he needs to be paired with one of the others that have more dominator potential.

Ryan Preece ($7,000 DK, $6,500 FD): Preece starts 21st on Sunday but had a top 5 car over the short run during practice on Friday. Ryan finished in the top 15 in three of the last five races here and usually excels at short, flat tracks. My model isn’t in love with him this weekend, but I think Preece is a top 15 driver with top 10 upside.

Michael McDowell ($6,100 DK, $5,500 FD): McDowell is a driver that can convert a good starting position into a good finish but this weekend we are looking for some place differential considering his 37th place starting position. Michael has a top 20 speed in his car and has three top 20 finishes in his last five races here. This is strictly a cash play because I am expecting his ownership to be high, and there is a chance he gets lapped early, which will kill any significant place differential potential.

Tournament Targets

Denny Hamlin ($12,000 DK, $14,000 FD): This is completely a gut play and mostly illogical. Hamlin is the most expensive driver of the slate and starting on the pole, but both Larson and Byron seem to have a better car. In fact, my model predicts Larson to win and Byron to dominate whilst projecting Hamlin to finish 4th. Data be damned, this is Hamlin’s year. Starting on the front row is a major advantage, although it seems like the driver starting second is more likely to dominate, and my gut is telling me that Hamlin will find a way to run away with the race.

Bubba Wallace ($7,700 DK, $8,500 FD): Wallace is cheap, starts 23rd, and had a fantastic car over the long run in practice. I am building a bit of a Toyota theme here with Hamlin and Briscoe so we might as well get 23XI involved. Wallace finished in the top 10 in each of the last two Fall Phoenix races, and I like his chances of making it three in a row.

Austin Dillon ($6,500 DK, $6,200 FD): Austin is coming off four top 16 finishes at Phoenix over his last six races. Dillon starts 26th on Sunday and could potentially provide a ton of place differential for a small salary. Dillon won at a correlated short track this year so he has shown some promise despite a disappointing season.

Ross Chastain ($9,000 DK, $9,500 FD): Chastain is the only driver crazy enough to mix it up with the Championship Four, so we always need to have some exposure to him at Phoenix. Ross starts 13th on Sunday and does have some speed in his car. Chastain has finished in the top 11 in three of the last four races, and my model projects a ceiling of a 5th-place finish. While that is not a high probability outcome, if he hits his ceiling, Chastain will be in serious consideration for the perfect lineup.

Bargain Basement

Todd Gilliland ($5,600 DK, $4,500 FD)

All eyes will be on Allmendinger starting last and offering a $100 discount, but I love Gilliland starting 30th. He offers some protection from being lapped early and comes in with a 3 race top 20 streak at Phoenix. Gilliland is a pure punt, but he still has top 15 upside, and that is all we can ask for with drivers in this range.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like at Phoenix that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Alex Bowman ($7,300 DK, $8,000 FD)

Brad Keselowski ($7,100 DK, $7,200 FD)

Kyle Larson ($11,500 DK, $13,000 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Austin Cindric ($7,500 DK, $7,500 FD)

Cindric starts 4th, but Phoenix has not been great to him over the years. Austin has a top finish of 11th in his brief Cup career here, and my model actually predicts him to finish 20th with a ceiling of 13th. I don’t expect him to gain any spots, so realistically, his best-case scenario is holding his starting position, but even then, there are much faster drivers starting behind him.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 28-40 (2.2 u)

2025 results: 28-40 (6.95 u)

There was only one plus money H2H on the betting card, so we are changing it up a little bit. A lot of it, actually, I tend to fade drivers on Underdog, but I am putting my money where my mouth is. I expect the Championship Four to finish in the top four, and if that happens, this bet will be a winner.

We are doubling up on the parlays for the final race and getting back to our pessimistic ways. Bell is a menace at Phoenix, but with two teammates in Championship contention, I don’t think he will want to steal their glory. There is a chance he beats this score on place differential alone, but he would need a top 3 finish, which I expect him to be shut out of. Hocevar qualified well, which he tends to do at Phoenix, but he has a top finish of 15th in his Cup career here. Hocevar has no problem finding himself some trouble and has 312 laps to do just that.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (+2.85 u)

2024 Results: 11-15 (+11.45 u)

2025 Results: 7-14 (-3.09 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For additional stats, check out the 2025 Cup Series Championship Cheatsheet

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