LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - 2024 Cup Series Championship

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS, 2023(x3) and 2024 FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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Check out the 2024 Cup Series Championship Cheatsheet

2024 Cup Series Championship🏁

Martinsville is always advertised as a battle of the heavyweights and last week’s race could be one of the most dramatic in the storied track’s history. It is not hyperbole to say that the final few laps could have lasting implications that alter the influence teams and manufacturers have on the outcome of individual races in the future. With that being said, the Championship Four is set. Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, William Byron, Tyler Reddick, and 36 of your other favorite misfits will travel to Phoenix Raceway in Avondale, AZ for the 2024 Cup Series Championship. The track is a 1 mile, flat, tri-oval with a quirky apron that allows for multiple angles out of turn 4 and five wide racing at times. The rules for this race are simple, whichever driver finishes the best out of the Championship Four wins the title. However, this is a full race, so the entire field will be racing for the win (kinda), and there could be a situation where a non-Championship driver wins the race.

The weather for Sunday’s race is picture perfect: Sunny, 80 degrees, and zero chance of precipitation. It’s like NASCAR knew what it was doing when it moved the finale to the desert.

As always I want to thank all of the readers for sticking it out for all 36 weeks. I would also like to thank LineStar for continuing to give me this opportunity.

Programing note: I will be tweaking the format of the Pitstop over the next few races so feel free to leave a comment in chat or reach out on X/Twitter to tell me what you like, don’t like, would possibly want to see going forward.

_{On to Phoenix!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 312 laps will be run this week, and 78 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 277 laps should run under the green flag for 124.65 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

1) Focus on the Championship 4. In every race except last year’s, the winning driver was from the Championship 4. In the four Championship races held in Phoenix at least two Championship 4 drivers made the perfect lineup. Six of the eight drivers that led over 90 laps in those race have been in the Championship 4. Are we getting the hint? Rostering more than two of the four may not be optimal, but it is highly unlikely that this will play out as a one-dominant race.

2) Look at the front row. Both drivers starting on the front row have dominated three of four races here, including non-Championship drivers. Throwing some Truex in lineups could be a nice way to differentiate.

3) Avoid the landmines. Some drivers are already thinking about Thanksgiving, others are still auditioning for next year. No one wants to ruin a Championship driver’s season so racing in the middle of the pack won’t be overly intense but some drivers will still be more motivated than others.

4) The dreaded double punt could be in play. If we pay up for two Championship drivers and a non-Championship stud, a double punt could be a feasible option. At most tracks I despise that option but it has had some success at Phoenix.

Stage 1: 60 Laps

Stage 2: 125 Laps

Stage 3: 127 Laps

Lineup Foundation Targets

Ryan Blaney ($11,200 DK, $14,000 FD) Lightning fast in practice over the short and long run, starting furthest back out of the Championship 4.

Joey Logano ($10,800 DK, $12,500 FD) Short tracks are Logano’s thing and he starts on the front row. As much as it hurts he is my favorite dominator option.

Kyle Busch ($8,000 DK, $7,800 FD) Last shot to keep the 20 year win streak alive. My model doesn’t give him much of a chance, but at least he has some motivation.

Tournament Targets

Tyler Reddick ($10,500 DK, $12,000 FD): Reddick is getting no respect from the betting market but he won the regular season points title for a reason. Starting 10th will not be a problem for him.

William Byron ($11,000 DK, $13,500 FD): Byron started the season hot and carried the momentum to Sunday. Probably the driver the betting markets love much more than me, but I’ll have some shares as a hedge.

Bubba Wallace ($7,800 DK, $7,500 FD): Starting 29th with a top 10 car. All eyes will be on his teammate Reddick on Sunday, but no one likes being the little brother.

Martin Truex Jr. ($9,000 DK, $10,000 FD) Winning his last race would be quite a send off for Truex. While he loves to mess up recently, the driver sitting on the pole has a habit of completely dominating at Phoenix, so we can’t sleep on Truex.

Bargain Basement

Zane Smith ($5,900 DK, $3,800 FD)

Everyone in this price range qualified way too well. Smith starts 28th which is still too far forward all things considered but he could pick up a spot or two. In the event of a double punt situation, neither driver will have to perform particularly well, positive place differential will do.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like at Phoenix that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($6,500 DK, $4,800 FD)

Chris Buescher ($8,200 DK, $8,200 FD)

Alex Bowman ($7,700 DK, $7,200 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Harrison Burton ($5200 DK, $3,200 FD)

Burton qualified inside the top 10 again this weekend and I am not touching him. As I mentioned earlier, most of the drivers from the basement are starting way further forward than anyone should be comfortable with. Harrison is has no business startin 9th on Sunday.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-50 (-25.65 u)

2024 results: 28-38 (3.7 u)

Vegas is disrespecting Reddick every way they can this Sunday. I am not concerned about the difference in practice speeds and Reddick has a better average finish at correlated tracks this season. My model gives Reddick the edge by about 2 spots.

Chastain may be the biggest heel on the circuit and the perfect way to follow up his win last year would be a top finish this season. I have a hard time betting against Logano in a championship race so I don’t think Chastain will repeat. I could see him pulling off a top 3 though.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

2024 Results: 11-15 (+11.45 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

For additional stats, check out the 2024 Cup Series Championship Cheatsheet.

Find me on Twitter. Good Luck!