LineStar® Weekly Pitstop - 2023 Cup Series Championship

🔥Written by 2020,2023 FBWC, 2021 KoS and 2023(x3) FWRC qualifier @joejets19

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2023 Cup Series Championship🏁

Congratulations on making it to the final race of the 2023 season. After 35 races in 37 weeks, the Championship race will be held this weekend at Phoenix Raceway in Avondale, AZ. The track is a quirkily shaped, 1 mile, flat, tri-oval. For those of you that are unfamiliarly with how this race works, it will be run like a normal race with stage breaks and a winner after 312 laps, The season championship will be awarded to the championship driver (Bell, Blaney, Byron or Larson) with the best finishing position. Generally, the winner of the championship race is one of the a Championship 4 but theoretically a non-championship driver could win the race and the the season title would then go to the final four driver with the best finishing position.

The best party about having the last race of the season in a desert is that there is 0 chance of rain on Sunday. That means there is no chance this race will be run on Monday. The season ends this weekend and everyone can relax until February,

As always I want to thank the great Linestar community for making this season our best one yet. Between technical issues, scheduling conflicts and life this was probably the most difficult season for me since we started the Pitstop but I want to let everyone know I appreciate you guys and thank you for sticking with us through it all.

_{On to Phoenix!}

Scoring Breakdown

At this point, we know how the DK scoring system works, so let's see how many points are available this week:

Laps Led Points =0.25 points per lap led. 312 laps will be run this week, and 78 DK points will be awarded (plus any overtime laps).

Place Differential Points = 1 point per position gained or -1 point per position lost.

Fastest Lap Points = 0.45 points per lap not run under caution (roughly 277 laps should run under the green flag for 124.65 possible DK points).

Finishing Position Points: The 40th place driver receives 4 points, and for each position gained, another point is awarded (39th=5, 38th=6…), and the winner gets 46 points.

Lineup Construction 🏗

Most of our lineups for this race will be centered around championship drivers. Some teams already have their eyes set on vacation. Other drivers are still racing for a ride next year. Either way, literally no one wants to be the reason a Championship 4 driver has their season ruined. For years, the Championship 4 rode 1-4, and everyone stayed out of their way. Last year, Logano and Blaney threw a wrench in tradition. They qualified first and second and pretty much ran the whole race together. Eventually, Logano (the championship 4 driver) would go on to win the race and the championship, but Blaney arguably had the better car. He just hung back and blocked any possible challenge. Essentially, any driver that would challenge for the lead had to battle Blaney (who had the best car in the field) before they even got to Logano. No one could get by Blaney (a non-championship driver), so Logano ran the entire race relatively unopposed, which veered from the general trajectory of this race. What does that mean for this race? Well, I could see more teammates getting involved than previously. The four most expensive drivers of the slate are the Championship 4, but I still expect 2 of them to make the perfect lineup. I think 3 would be hard to fit, so I would focus on 2/4 championship drivers plus a possible dominator who is a teammate to a championship driver. The teammate angle could be a stretch, but sometimes that is what we need to set our lineups apart in big tournaments.

For the non-championship drivers, I would focus on drivers starting in the 20s that could finish in the top 10. As I mentioned previously, no one is going to be the reason a championship driver’s season gets ruined, and this is generally a low attrition race, but big moves can still be made. If a fast car qualified poorly, they should still be able to make their way through the field because most drivers are looking ahead to the off season at this point.

The Bargain Basement is absolutely open on Sunday. With the inflated prices of the Championship drivers and the fact that we need at least 2 of them, we will need salary relief somewhere. A finish in the high 20s will be enough as long as they have positive place differential.

Stage 1: 60 Laps

Stage 2: 125 Laps

Stage 3: 127 Lap

Lineup Foundation Targets

Ryan Blaney ($11,300 DK, $13,500 FD)

Kevin Harvick gets all the attention for being the master of Phoenix, but I think Blaney is the true menace here. Ryan has made two of the last three perfect lineups here and has an average finish of 3rd here in his last four races. Blaney starts 15th on Sunday, the worst starting position of the final 4, but that doesn’t worry me at all it just adds to his place differential potential. Blaney had the best car in the field over the long run, posting the best 15 and 20 laps averages in practice on Saturday. There is no arguing that Blaney has the best floor out of the Championship driver, and I love him in cash games this weekend.

Chase Elliott ($8,600 DK, $9,000 FD)

Elliott starts 20th on Sunday, but I wouldn’t be surprised to find him in the top 10 by the end of stage 1. Chase’s teammates Byron and Larson are both in the Championship 4 and starting in the top 5. The team as a whole has a good idea of how to set the car up for success at Phoenix, and Elliott has personally performed well here throughout his career. Chase has four top 7 finishes, including a win, in his last 6 races here. During practice, Elliott posted top 9 ten, and fifteen lap averages on Saturday. While Chase does not have anything to race for technically, I expect him to turn in a decent race from a fantasy perspective.

Tournament Targets

William Byron ($11,200 DK, $13,000 FD)

Byron starts on the pole on Sunday, and if we are being honest this should be his race to lose. Byron has won six races this season, by far a career high, and he has been the breakout start of the year. While his practice times were not overly impressive, clear air is king with his aero package (especially at shorter tracks), and I expect him to stay out front for a long time. Byron was able to win the Spring race here this season from his 3rd place starting position, and I expect him to lead a significant number of laps and finish well.

Aric Almirola ($7,00 DK, $6,500 FD)

Is this track short? Yes. Is this track flat? Yes. Is Aric Almirola breathing? Yes. I am running my Almirola call back this week because it paid off for us splendidly at Martinsville. This weekend, Almirola is a pure place differential play from his 28th place starting position. This is another play that isn’t exactly supported by practice times, but track history gives us some hope. Aric only has one finish worse than 20th here in his last seven races, and a top 17 is all we really need out of him.

Bargain Basement

Ty Dillon ($5,100 DK, $2,500 FD)

I am convinced I will get Dillon right this year, and considering it hasn’t happened yet, I might as well take my last shot. Dillon starts 33rd and has had seriously success here in the past with several finishes between 15 and 20. This is not the type of race where we will need that good of a finish, a top 25 should be more than enough to make the perfect lineup.

Other Drivers to Consider

Here are three more drivers I like at Phoenix that have a chance to make some noise in no particular order:

Christopher Bell ($10,800 DK, $12,500 FD)

Brad Keselowski ($9,000 DK, $8,000 FD)

Chase Briscoe ($7,500 DK, $8,500 FD)

Top Driver to Avoid

Martin Truex Jr ($10,200 DK, $11,500 FD)

Truex starts 2nd on Sunday and there is zero chance he has an impact on this race. His teammate Christopher Bell is starting too far back to expect a repeat of the Logano/Blaney situation unless he overtakes Byron and holds the lead until Bell shows up. That is such a low probability outcomes I don’t even think it’s viable in large tournaments.

Pitstop Picks

2022 results: 17-57 (-27.3 u)

2023 results: 15-48 (-19.65 u)

Taking a big swing to make up for a subpar season. Blaney has he worst starting position of the Championship 4 but the best recent history and the best car over the long run. Our entire season can turn around with this one play, so lets all jump on the Blaney wagon.

There is no reason Almirola should have the shortest odds of this group so I think the books know something we don’t. If you want to lower this to a half unit play I wouldn’t be mad.

Pitstop Poll

2023 Results: 3-4 (2.85 u)

A new feature this season will be the Pitstop Poll. I will select one of the groups posted on the DK Sportsbook and leave it up to the readers to vote on their preferred bet. I will keep track of this throughout the season to see how well we are doing. This week’s selection:

Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Be sure to join me in the LineStar NASCAR chat!

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